Chesil View

No doubt there will be nervous nelly's getting worried. But in reality the 12z ecm is simply a slightly slower evolution to the same outcome as before and one that has always been in the ensemble envelope.

Fair enough Drifter we all view things from our own stance. Believe me at 63 years old I have seen enough of the disappointments over the years to sink a battleship but that's often because the ecm or met weren't fully buying in to the process. My view now is whilst they're on board then so am I.

Its not really that hard to remain positive when the top two verifying models are steady as a rock and the one that always goes a bit awol on when it comes to cold is doing its usual wobble.

Gfs doing its usual wobble in advance of a cold outbreak and unsettling those of a nervous constitution, but ukmo and ecm yet again steady as a rock in fact the ecm brings the cold down across the whole UK slightly quicker this morning

Thanks MIA. Great research and insight.

All very much just for fun but I was wracking my brain trying to think what the last few frames of the reminded me of and then it came to me. Just a bit of tongue in cheek fun. To keep things light hearted.

In reality though CC the pesky shortwave didn't change the whole output. We still got to Greenland based high.

Thanks Matt. In my more than 40 years following Uk weather and more than 20 years following models in the Internet age. It has become increasingly clear that without taking into account all the factors that you have mentioned in your excellent piece then you don't have a scooby of ever judging where the nwp might head, particularly in relation to the rare enough cold outbreaks for the UK. Most of those who don't think these factors have a big role role to play are simply concerned with whether its going to snow over there house or not. The plain fact is that the UK is a tiny island and therefore a minute target at which to get a massive global machine to aim minus 15 uppers and copious nationwide snowfall at. But what studying and taking into account all the factors and there interactions that you mention does allow is for us to take a much better forecast at whether the atmospheric patterns will emerge to make cold enough to even think about the S word on our tiny island. The move towards breaking our endless wet and windy stuff with first a UK high and the retrogression has been advertised by the factors you mention for some considerable time and for those of us who try to follow and understand these factors it has simply been a waiting game to see the nwp to inevitably start to play out the forcing of the background signals.

I know it's tempting to look way ahead when the models go out to ten days and beyond( and I did just for fun comnent the gfs channel low scenario) but for now I think its best to concentrate on the nearer term and getting the high in place with any associated cold and wintriness that might bring. Then once that is in place move on to the details of the retrogression and how that plays out. They are after a two separate movements. The retrogression signal is there across the model suites but details on local and regional affects still to be sorted.

All purely just for fun at that range but a nice channel low scenario developing at the back end of the 00z gfs.

Yes we've learnt over the years that when you cross model agreement on what things could look like even at eight to ten days. There is a higher likelihood of something close to that pattern developing.

Excellent set of 12z runs from a coldies perspective. Good agreement from gfs and ecm and ukmo in line with what happens up to 168. As I said last night it's goid to see upgrades as the landing point nears.

This is the model discussion thread and much though it is very tempting to give knee jerk reactions to each nuance of every det run especialky when there are potential cold synoptics . I really would advise posters to wait and see what the ens/control/means are suggesting before making bold statements. Proclaiming west based this or sinking that etc. The pros at Exeter or on here for that matter don't react to one det run even from their own models they take a measured approach looking at a whole spectrum of ens etc. I feel it would help this thread immensely if we could perhaps show a similar approach.

In terms of cross model agreement from a long way out yes Luke. but I.m not going to suggest for moment that another December 2010 is on the cards lets just watch things unfold and see where we are come the retrogression

And there at 240 on the ecm is the retrogression just where its supposed to be and in line with other model output

Thanks Blue. A measured and well explained post and pleasant antidote to the knee-jerk nonsense that sometimes takes hold in here. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99706-model-output-discussion-into-2024/?do=findComment&comment=4991494

Thanks Blue. A measured and well explained post and pleasant antidote to the knee-jerk nonsense that sometimes takes hold in here.

Or of course it could simply be that the journey to wintry nirvana is a more steady and measured one.

Excellent ECM in my book if you don't view the charts as if they're Amazon prime and I want it now therefore I must have it tomorrow. All as per background signals High slightly north or over UK followed by retrogression as the pv lobes part and the jet moves south with time. Some posters seem to seem to be posting from the view that the second week of January is the cut off point for any cold /snowy weather in the UK which is strange when one thinks that most of them probably watched the the Channel 5 documentary on the Big snow of 47 last night.

PV lobes parting 120 to 168 could get very interesting.

Nice to see the ecm upgrading as the actual events come into range. Let's hope we see a continuation on the 00z. Final frame suggests northwest retrogression with energy dipping southeastwards towards Iberia.

Good to see more energy going under the high at 168.

Having the steady High held close or just Northwest of the UK is good going forward. For a start it minimises the amount of amplification needed to create something a bit special. It's not like we'd be having to drag a high all the way from the Azores to the north Pole. The pros clearly see some interest going forward I don't think I 've ever heard any bbc forecaster talking about the rest of the month being cold on the first of January as the bbc forecaster did on the week ahead forecast today

A nice signal animation to start the new year.

I think That ECM meant stonking not sinking.