Chesil View

Yes I was agreeing with him.

We know the breakdown is coming. It's already here on the south coast. We already know the next round of amplification is is coming around mid Dec onwards. So probably time to take a break from picking the bones out of every model run for a few days and allow the next round of amplification to feed into the extended nwp. Gfs first for obvious reasons. Then we can start the next showcase in time for Xmas.

Left Weymouth and travelled to Blandford and then on to Sherborne before heading back to Weymouth. At no time on my journey did the temperature reading in my car get above freezing. So an ice day it is.

Excellent post Catacol and similar to how I would see things panning out through December. The loss of our current cold pattern does look inevitable and the form horse would be for the lows not really to advance in any real form past dear old blighty. The global drivers much as Eric Webb points out, favour continued and extended negative NAO conditions after the coming week's relaxation. The cards do appear to falling in our favour with the general background of Central el nino and easterly qbo providing a very favourable and helpful background upon which others like mjo etc can imprint itself. As you say the winter season starting today has a good chance of being a real cracker.

Interesting last few posts about cold air being hard to shift and whether it's myth. Entrenched cold air can be hard to shift. The important word being entrenched. Cold air that's only just arrived like the current set up where a couple or three geniunely cold days at most before lows try to push against it can be readily removed. However if we had had a week or week and a half of genuinely cold air ie freezing or just above at ground level then that's when things can become harder to shift. For my part of the world the best example would be Feb 7th to 19th 1978 where after a week of entrenched genuinely cold air, lows that were forecast to track northeastwards across the UK slid south east across Cornwall bringing two noteworthy falls of snow (10cms+) on the 15th and 16th of Feb before the Blizzard of 78 on the 18th as the encroaching front stalled against the block.

I was think the same thing Met4Cast. Wouldn't take much tweaking for that to become a stellar wintry run.

Looks odds on for a return to Atlantic driven weather of some kind so best to enjoy the upcoming colder days and enjoy the snow if you get some. The good thing is from a model watching point of view if our more learned posters are right,is that by the time the milder weather arrives we may also be start seeing the next resurgence of cold/snowy condition starting to be modelled in the further reaches of gfs etc.

Best way to look at this is as follows I think. We have a bonus early cold spell in a winter that looks primed for blocking episodes the further we go into it. Also ask your self which classic winter ever really started in the first week of December and lasted all the way through. The winters of legend certainly didn't. Take this wintry bonus and wait a little longer for winter proper to get under way.

I suspect this mornings ecm det is as much a warm outlier in its latter stages as yesterday's 12z was a cold outlier. Ecm has a tendency to fo this with its det runs. Happened a lot last winter.

Think yourself lucky knocker we could have been talking about the spreads.

If that's the final track of course' and at 6 days out it's unlikely to be.

Indeed so Purga. Gfs picks up Ecm's Scandi high idea and runs with it forcing the low to disrupt.

Seems to me the models are pushing any return of the Atlantic further and further back.

00z Ecm may beg to differ on the back to mild bit

Griceland block reinforced and the Jet heading for Corsica on the ECM 240...........anyone sniffing a cold extention in the air?

Many thanks Catacol

Why not? Our new CC weather regimes seem to be all or nothing.

Welcome back Bftp.

Haven't had a chance took at the models much today. So a very pleasant surprise to come back znd see this evenings ecm. Particular the strengthening of hieghrs to our north and west

Only another 27 gfs and 13 ecm runs till 1st December. This is going to be fun getting this nailed. Not forgetting the 13 ukmo runs as well of course.

indeed wyw the only real clustering is around the cold options.

Abit like feb 78 near me in Dorset Ali1977

Tonights ecm 240 reminds me very much of the period between xmas 1978 and new year 1979 . worth taking a look on weterzentrale arhive NOAA Reanalysis charts. large high to our north and north east, vortex shoved to siberia, lows running across the uk but with time tracking further and further south. eventually leading to the Dec 30th Blizzard acoss the south and heralding a snowy and cold winter.

The 15-30 dayer is not really a forecast in strictest sense in that it is simply quoting climatology for that time of the year when a dry start to December is very often followed by an unsettled spell over christmas. It is probably doing this in the absence any strong signal either way as of today. The renewed mjo wave in the pacific may begin to affect the their thinking for later in December as a renewed wave of amplification runs across the northern hemisphere. That 15-30 dayer may well look somewhat different in a weeks time

Really just shows the absurdity of following each operational run as if its gospel. Bearing in mind that the 'gospel' for this coming weekend wasn't really agreed upon until yesterday. So taking anything too seriously for the following weekend in a volatile and fluid and unusual set up such as this is would a bit silly.