Chesil View

@Mike Poole It was said with tongue firmly in cheek Mike. Those who follow the strat and teleconnections were as you rightly say patiently waiting for things to unfold. However I do remember that the less patient among us weren't quite so sanguine about where developments eventually led. Namely the coldest end of Feb early/march spell since 1845!!

@SLEETY corrected to 2018. Fat finger syndrome.

I'm sure people were giving up on winter on 28th Jan 2018 as well.

@TEITS I was thinking along similar lines TEITS. Edit : I see Duane S has beaten me to it.

My most curious experience if that year was holidaying in North Wales late May or very early June1975 and starting the week with an ankle deep snow cover and finishing it sunbathing in 75f. Incredible turn around

The background signals continue to suggest that another set of cold synoptics as we move through the second half of meteorological winter is a reasonable assumption but if it materialises at all it looks like it will be a slow and steady process possibly with more than one bite at the cherry to get there. Which will do nothing for the nervous dispositions of our more impatient members The late winter prospects are definitely not in Amazon mode at the moment and certainly not prime.

@bluearmy Having now taken a look at the gfs control. I can see where you're coming from regarding the ecm op slower evolution Blue.

@sebastiaan1973 well it had better be on the ball other wise this could be a very frustrating chase indeed.

Complete lack of continuity from 0z ecm to 12z ecm . Major difference over the arctic.

Ecm 12z op singing from the same hymnsheet as Gfs 12z op at 240.

All completely Just for fun at that extended range but the 12z gfs op wouldn't take that much tweaking to provide a UK snowfest. I would imagine there might be an ensemble or two that do just that.

Just as an over view, the models will do what the models will do in reaction to what they perceive the background drivers are showing and the actual weather will do what the actual weather does in reaction to what that mix of drivers is actually doing. So if the actual weather/atmophere reacts/decides that winter the biggest chunk of winter this year will be mid Feb to mid March (like 2017/18) then that's what will happen. Regardless of met office book keeping stipulations about which season it is at the time.

All models seemingly going for pressure to rise to our east towards months end. Yet as the various models suggestions show. When it comes to advecting cold/snowy conditions towards our shores The exact position and orientation of a Scandi high is absolutely crucial. Scandi Highs are a high risk but not always high reward scenario for the UK.

Thank you Catacol for an honest and informed post about the here and now and also how things can pan out going forward. In our mainly westerly driven climate regime it is incredibly difficult to get widespread snowy synoptics to affect the UK even when everything appears in our favour. With just tens of miles being the difference between a foot of snow and foot of nothing. Southern England this coming week being a prime example. We are very lucky to have the likes of yourself. Tamara and others keeping an eye on global background developments seeing as they underpin every broadscale pattern that affects us.

Wouldn't need that much of a correction northwards to give us some fun and games.

Quite so BFTP. Any one writing off February or winter for that matter on the 15th January needs to give their head a shake.

Met office won't issue warnings unless they feel the probability is 80% or above. Clearly even at this stage with the wavering of the fronts final position across model suites that is not the case so they wouldn't issue a warning based on 'well it might do but we aren't sure yet'

The background signals are what will have led to the the UK being cold for a fortnight by the end of this week. The background signal always suggested the second half/two thirds of winter as the most likely time for the atmosphere to have an above normal propensity for blocking in our corner of the world. Amazingly for my location I have seen falling snow on three days already this winter. Which straight away makes it better than most recent winters. Yes the UK is a small area to get snow making scenarios just right buyt without the favourable background signals you wouldn't even get a chance at those scenarios. It's not an exact science down to somebody's backyard. It's a science that gives us a better understanding as to when and if the scenarios many of us crave might occur.

Probably my longest ever post coming up. But a few things I feel need to be said .Some quite understandable disappointment abounds that a nationwide freeze up and snow for everyone has not materialised in the models. But some points to bear in mind going forwards especially for our newer members. Even our harshest legendary winters waxed and waned within their admittedly cold envelopes especially here in the south. People saying oh the background signals haven't worked. But yes they have and will continue to do so. The background signals at no time said another 47 or 63 was on the way. They suggested that the atmospheric circulation in our part of the world would show a propensity for blocked scenarios particularly the longer winter went on and come Friday we will have been in blocked scenario for a fortnight. The background signal did not say the situation would remain intact everyday for January and February. Except in very very exceptional circumstances the atmosphere is naturally too dynamic for that to happen especially in northwest Europe on the wrong side of a comparatively warm ocean. What the background signals do suggest especially El nino/Easterly Qbo is that as per Tamara's excellent posts that further blocking opportunities will arise through Feb and March. There will be those who say oh god no not March but if you really do like cold and snow. It would be churlish in the extreme to turn your nose up at snow that comes then. The beast from the east gave me March ice days and an aggregate total of 35cm of snow at my location within 5 miles of the south coast in the first half of march 2018. Do you think I turned my nose up at it because it didn't come in Jan or Feb. Of course I bloody didn't. I enjoyed it for what it was. Sensational. 50 years of winter watching in southern England teaches you to be philosophical to live in thd now when the rare events arise. What last week and the coming are is simply round 1 of the contest between a propensity for more blocking than usual as per the background signals and our normal westerly winter regime. There are more rounds/battles to come over the next 8 to 10 weeks Yes the charts medium to extended outlook don't look great but I would suggest to anyone who thinks that's it for winter go to the archive charts on wetterzentrale where you will find Bartletts and Greeland PV's just days before the winters of 1947 and 1963 started to understand how quickly things can change when the background signals suggest a higher than normal propensity for blocking in our corner of the atmosphere. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99760-model-output-discussion-colder-but-how-cold-and-for-how-long/?do=findComment&comment=5010195

Probably my longest ever post coming up. But a few things I feel need to be said .Some quite understandable disappointment abounds that a nationwide freeze up and snow for everyone has not materialised in the models. But some points to bear in mind going forwards especially for our newer members. Even our harshest legendary winters waxed and waned within their admittedly cold envelopes especially here in the south. People saying oh the background signals haven't worked. But in reality yes they have done and will continue to do so. The background signals at no time said another 47 or 63 was on the way. They suggested that the atmospheric circulation in our part of the world would show a propensity for blocked scenarios particularly the longer winter went on and come Friday we will have been in blocked scenario for a fortnight. The background signals did not say that situation would remain intact everyday for January and February. Except in very very exceptional circumstances the atmosphere is naturally too dynamic for that to happen especially in northwest Europe on the wrong side of a comparatively warm ocean. What the background signals do suggest especially El nino/Easterly Qbo is that as per Tamara's excellent posts that further blocking opportunities will arise through Feb and March. There will be those who say oh god no not March. But if you really do like cold and snow. It would be churlish in the extreme to turn your nose up at snow that comes then. The beast from the east gave my first ever March ice days and an aggregate total of 35cm of snow at my then location within 5 miles of the south coast. Do you think I turned my nose up at it because it didn't come in Jan or Feb. Of course I bloody didn't. I enjoyed it for what it was. Sensational. 50 years of winter watching in southern England teaches you to be philosophical and to live in the here now when these rare events arise. What last week and the coming week are is simply round 1 of the contest between a propensity for more blocking than usual as per the background signals and our normal westerly winter regime. There are more rounds/battles to come over the next 8 to 10 weeks Yes the charts in the medium to extended outlook don't look great at moment. But I would suggest to anyone who thinks that's it for winter go to the archive charts section on wetterzentrale where you will find Bartletts and Greenland based PV's a plenty just days before the winters of 1947 and 1963 started to understand how quickly things can change when the background signals suggest a higher than normal propensity for blocking in our corner of the atmosphere.

....and of course tonight's 12z are absolutely nailed for next week's weather. These are the same models that have vascillated on putting the possible midweek snowfall anywhere between Birmingham and Bordeaux over the last 36 hours and yet this is the run that absolutely has everything nailed.

Hi Rob if that is the event I think it is then I believe that may have been a north/south occluded front stalling against an easterly fed high pressure.. checking out the Noaa archive on wetterzentrale for charts around that time.

Great post again Catacol. As you rightly say Super duper legendary winter synoptics like 87.91 or 78 are very rare indeed and even were fairly rare back in the 60's 70's 80's heyday. However snow producing synoptics are rather less scarce and can still arise even in our warming world. I think there could still be some big fluctuations in the modelling over the coming weekend in regards to what happens beyond next weekend.

You're having a Leffe.

They say seven days is a long time in politics. Its even longer when looking at Det nwp runs. We gone from long lasting Greenland block with endless pv bits dropping southwest over us out of Scandi to a few days of northerly winds and a possible channel low that'll barely scrape the south coast if we're lucky. Well have to hope that Tamara's shuffling high scenario kicks in to bring some proper winter weather rather than all this half hearted farting about around the edges. Still time for upgrades but we're running the clock down on this particular episode .