Chesil View

Indeed Mike when the gfs isn't sure in winter it nearly always brings out its Rolling high scenario as a holding pattern while it trys to work things out.

Looking like a slow burner (or perhaps that should be cooler) this one. At the end of the Ecm run we have a solid mid latitude/UK block in place with background signals suggesting that beyond this the vortex segments bridging to our north should separate allowing our high to migrate north or northwest.

Very true Phil.This has been my experience of the gfs over years too. Seems to have a definite bias to overdo the northern arm of the jet.

Both Ecm and GEM look to be going for another retrogression signal at the end of their runs. Gfs also tries this but can't quite get it to stick but that's way way off deep FI Generally though the Atlantic is kept quiet.

Its slowly creeping towards a more ecm like solution but couldn't go the whole hog this time so decided sink the block in a fit of pique at having to start changing in the first place. Would be better off scrapping the gfs and just pinning up Tamara's posts instead they seem far more erudite and educated than most of the gfs output.

Gfs trying to quietly tip toe back into the party without anyone noticing. Doing its usual incremental backtrack towards the ecm.

That's an awful lot of certainty for something ten days away. You wouldn't happen to have tonight's winning lottery numbers to hand would you.

Excellent ecm det for coldies this morning. Maintains the high to our northwest signal and introduces easterly/northeastern flow from scandi

Gfs det goes awol but the control follows the cold route hovering around minus 10c from the 11th.

I would agree Mike, waxing and waning of cold winter patterns is pretty much always a feature of our colder winters, even 63 and 47 waxed and waned a bit albeit between severe and very cold. 78/79 certainly waxed and waned especially the further south you were.

Was just digging out the same chart Weather History. I,d certainly take the first 20 days of Jan 1985 starting a week or so later.

excellent runs today because across the gfs,ecm and gem they have maintained the broad pattern for there to be high pressure to our north/northwest across their 0z and 12z sites. The ukmo is in the same ball park and looks as if it would do the same going forward. The meto clearly believe so given their bullish cold outlook. There's no point shouting 'where's the snow' at a day 9 or 10 chart. It is the trend and the retention of that trend across todays suites that gives us the foundation for even more interesting things going further forward. All pretty much in line with the advertised pattern change via background drivers.

Interestingly we now have cross model agreement for high pressure to the northwest of the UK at 240 on ecm gfs and gem with ukmo looking like it would end up there if it went that far.

Excellent post Duane S. Awful lot knee jerk and often incorrect assumptions being made around the normal inter-run variation and waxing and waning of possible cold scenarios in the nwp.

Normal inter-run variation and waxing and waning as the nwp tries to get a handle on a pattern change.

The op is often the coldest member when it is the trendsetter for a change to colder conditions

Gfs 00z very reminiscent of the winter of 1979 build up with northern blocking gradually pushing each successive Atlantic incursion further and further south. Interesting modelling this morning with ECM bringing the Griceland High scenario in to play as well.

ECM brings the Griceland High into play at 144. Just like GFS.

Ecm starting to smell a different way forward at 216/240.

JFF. Nice xmas present from gfs in the extended range.

Charts at that range aren't gospel.The main thing is the continuing trend and that is to cut off the Atlantic and northern blocking ddveloping

All out in la la land zip know but interesting to see the gfs 12z staring to get a bit wedge as we head into January. Edit I see Cheshire Freeze beat me to it.

Great post Catacol. As Tamara posted a day or so back. Always expect the unexpected. It does seem that CC is throwing into the mix perhaps hidden or as yet undiscovered background drivers or making it easier to ameliorate the expected effects of mjo etc that would normally bring a chance of deep cold to the UK. As I posted the other day the UK is a tiny target at which to aim deep cold/exceptionally snowy conditions. When one thinks that the last genuinely deep cold outbreak across the UK wasfeb/march 2018 and that ssw assisted your assertion that we have to have a favourable ssw to get deep cold to these shores seems a very viable way of looking at things. Not to say we won't get a trop only induced episode once in a while but these I feel will be shortlived or glancing blows rather than the real thing that used to populate winters more commonly in the 60's79's and 80's as the 40% loss of lowland snow-covered over the las 60 odd years only re-enforces. The path of the lowland UK deep cold and snow lover appears to be an increasingly lonely one when so many things have to align perfectly when they seem to be do easily knocked of balance like the recent mjo passage running out of steam. They say absence makes the heart grow fonder. That certainly seems to be the case for lowland snow lovers. But at least it will make its arrival all the sweeter when it does come.

My Sincerest condolences to you MATTWOLVES 3.

Globally the British Isles are a tiny target at which to fire exceptionally cold synoptics. Global drivers are essentially broadbrush evaluations and for our part of the world greeny or scandi Highs still need to be perfectly aligned.to deliver deep cold.