[North West England Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/2017 onwards]

52 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

PPN Charts on the GFS look fine.

Heavy Snow For a good few hours with the possibility of a bit of rain on the back edge,Manchester North Snow all the way.

 

C.S

 

Good call.. hopefully my altitude will keep it all snow.

[North West England Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/2017 onwards]

27 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

yes we certainly do not want anymore corrections south now- from our regions point of view..

History tells me in these set-ups the very southern parts of the region do OK.  Northern regions get nowt and central regions get a dusting.

[North West England Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/2017 onwards]

Don't want this slider low to move further south or we are out the game. 

Feeling nervous...

[North West England Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/2017 onwards]

Met check is a poor site these days. 

Got me down for 87mm of ppn Thursday night till Friday morning...

Anyone got a snowplough I can borrow 

[North West England Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/2017 onwards]

Got this from the MOD thread.

Won't these lows passing through bring us into a Easterly feed ? 

 

[North West England Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/2017 onwards]

6 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

MO warnings amended.

Snow further East - North West Snow  !!

Further east ?

[Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn]

8 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Alright, no need to scream 

 

 

At this range the details are of little concern but it is of note how the Pacific ridge is not as sharp on this run (left chart) which increases the risk of the Canadian trough breaking loose. On the other hand, the seed for the deep trough is shallower and more stretched out which makes me wonder if that will evolve into such a 'pushy' system.

Given the 00z ECM this is just speculation with respect to this particular run (for the fun of it, if I'm honest!).

PV looking very angry over Eastern Canada & Western Greenland 

[Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn]

7 minutes ago, Ukwoody said:

Can someone translate this into Numpty talk for me please??? lol

Stop looking North West and start looking North East 

[Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn]

2 minutes ago, terrier said:

Think the snowfall will correct further northwards next few days. Can see Newcastle northwards getting a good covering. With rest of us seeing cold rain. The gales look more worrying on Thursday. With Scotland seeing gusts in excess of 80mph. Then into next week looks like it could turn very wet for most of the uk. 

Barrel of laughs you are 

[Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn]

1 minute ago, Optimus Prime said:

Some people base precipitation type solely on what the temperature is reading a mile up from the surface without taking into account other, and in some cases, more important factors.

Pointless having -10 uppers if your DPS are +2 

[Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes nick we are going to need some amplification 168 onwards or its going to get very wet!!

And I can guarantee our region definitely will not miss out on any wetness..

[Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn]

7 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Because it changes the meridional pattern (Northerly flow) back to a flatter less cold / milder westerly zonal flow with depressions pushing in from the west and I think that goes against the general background signals which as far as I know still indicate generally more blocked and colder weather until at least mid dec..if not further ahead..i'm not saying the ecm op is wrong, just that it's unlikely.

Thanks for the reply.

[North West England Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/2017 onwards]

1 minute ago, iand61 said:

The Pennines are good at that, stop virtually all snow in the east from reaching our side although never seem to object when it coming from the west.

 

Great ain't it 

[Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn]

9 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Anyone despairing about the progressive Ecm 12z operational really shouldn't..it goes against other models and the Met Office..see what the mean shows if you see what I mean..about 30-45 mins to go.

Hi Frosty.

Can you tell me why you think the ECM 12z is progressive?   What if it is bang on the money ?

[North West England Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/2017 onwards]

Almost choked when I saw the Weather for the North west on ITV. 

Chance of sleet on Saturday 

[North West England Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/2017 onwards]

Saying Bone Dry for BL6 and rest of the Bolton area. 

Think it's going to be frustrating to see areas west of me getting pasted lol.

 

[North West England Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/2017 onwards]

Agree with the winds being WNW. a NNW will see the shower skirt to the south of me. I can see the shower hitting the South Manchester & Stockport areas.

Frustrating to say the least.

[Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn]

Gfs T+ 120 chart.. very nice.. WAA being pumped up to Greenland. 

Heavy shower into northern & western areas.

 

[North West England Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/2017 onwards]

3 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

I cannot see the Country file forecast been to interesting to be honest.

The forecast only goes to Friday,think it is to early to talk about snow potential.

You have to say though the potential is there though,screams Cheshire Gap snow

Frenzy to me,but as I say to far out to get my hopes up.

C.S

 

Got a feeling this winter could be a good one.. the last few winters have been very poor.

[Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn]

1 minute ago, OfficialKevWX said:

The 00z runs are definitely going to be interesting! 

If the MetO  00z  is still good then I'll be happy.. the ECM plays ball and I'll be happy. If the GFS 00z Starts to wobble..then I'll be happy because the euros are trying to sing from the same sheet.

[Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn]

4 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Tbh I don’t think it’s either it’s just another variation that’s pretty much a week away, details are going to chop and change, pretty sure if it turns out as the 18z suggests then we will be pretty happy

Markw.

I'l be more happy when the UKmet. And the ecm are both singing from the same Hymn sheet. 

Im always nervous with the Gfs

[Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Downgrade yeah ?  ok then 

Was the 18z an upgrade then ? 

Or have 2 features vanished from the 12z 

I'm a coldie but I'm just replying to what I see. 

What is the problem with that ?

 

[Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn]

1 minute ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

You are obsessing over tiny features that will vary from run to run. Look how slack the pattern is after T168... this will change from run to run so why dwell on such a volatile pattern?

Lets get a cold northerly and see what happens thereafter.

Im just looking at the models.. I would not call the slider a tiny feature.. if it slides then game on

[Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn]

For one the backedge snow has gone on the 18z 

That in my book is a back track 

[Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn]

There is a downbeat feel after the 18z.... I've seen more than enough GFS 18z"s start a new trend or back track