Bricriu
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Posts posted by Bricriu
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Just has another look, turning more and more to sleet now.
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1 minute ago, snowray said:
Is it snowing there?
Not yet. The temperature has dropped, though. So hopefully it wiill soon.
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7 minutes ago, snowray said:
Big blob now around Edgware and moving towards Hendon...anyone around that way???
I am fairy close to Hendon
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The rain is getting heavier and there is some sleet mixed in it.
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Rain here for the last 30 minutes, and still the temperature is 4c. I am a bit concerned.
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12 minutes ago, Catacol said:
It's a carefully worded downgrade. "Very cold" has gone, a move to average temps for next week is clear, and the previous report mentioned snow....and now its rain, sleet and snow. In addition we now have "some periods" when the wind may come from the east.
They could hardly U - turn within a day as it would leave them looking as average as forecasters as some of us excited amateurs are looking at the moment with our cold forecasts peaking with this week's disappointing transient wet mix. So - downgrade it gently...bit by bit, maybe at 48 hour intervals.
I am genuinely not normally of a negative disposition - and if you follow the trail of my weather posts in winter for many years I will see snow whenever there is snow. But at the moment I'm looking at 2 more weeks of unremarkable, maybe slightly below average given the jet angle and cold generally spilling out to lower latitudes courtesy of the SSW - but no significant reversal of the flow. There is a chance then of lagged impacts from next week's MJO phase 7 hitting in mid Feb around school half term week - but we have to place this within the context of a season when such moments previously have not produced anything of note. Can this SSW still deliver? Of course - potentially we could have a very cold last half of Feb if everything clicks as we have expected it to - but for the next 10 days we slip now into another holding pattern and the suspicion has to be that whatever has conspired to break cold chances this winter so far will continue to do so.
I hope that is a cue for the coldest latter half of Feb on record. i'd happily wipe the egg off my face and reveal the grin underneath.
What has transpired essentially is the vortex split wasn't favourable to our location, due to weak downwelling compared to the 2018 event, courtesy of the very strong wave activity associated with last years SSW, we ended up with lobes of Vortex in the wrong place, where by any attempt at retrogressing was flattened time and again.
This is one of those SSW that has not delivered. We just have to be content with a continuation of the current pattern.
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29 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:
But when it mentions RAIN, sleet and snow across the SE, it can hardly be described as a powerhouse Easterly.
It just seems to be a continuation of what is going on currently, You would have to think it has rowed back after analysing the latest ECM 46 update
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18 minutes ago, abbie123 said:
There could be the all important upgrades..
I doubt it once they have backtracked now. Having said that there will be further snow at times, particularly in the South East of England, if that update is correct.
I suppose if you are after a beast from the east 2019, it's definitely a downgrade.
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I wonder would it start off as snow up in the Chilterns
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I know it's not going to happen, but it would be great if just started snowing from the off this evening.
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I will take a few hours of snowfall with a dusting later tonight. Thursday there will be probably be disruptive snow, i can predict this because i won't be in the region - sod's law!
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8 minutes ago, SLEETY said:
Can't believe some posters have giving up on this winter even the more knowledgeable because ec46 has changed, it's been mostly wrong for this winter in that HLB hasn't occurred like it said but it got the negative temp anomoly correct for back end of Jan.
. Despite the fact UKMO are still going for a very cold spell towards mid feb, a lot of posters are abandoning ship because it seems only Ec46 matters, OK BYE then see you next winter
I guess this might be settled if the UKMO does not backtrack, as it is predicted to do by many posters here, within the next few days.
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Well, it seems like this SSW has not downwelled sufficiently through the lower layers of the strat to give us a HLB in the troposphere.
Some posters have now given up hope of HLB in February because the EC46, whick knocker, kindly answered my question about the other day, shows no HLB during this month. So it seems this SSW not dealt us a kind hand. I don't agree with the idea that the split was too good- last year was a major warming and it delivered the goods, but this year it just seems to have been a split with the remants of the main vortex landing in the wrong place.
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2 hours ago, Uxbridge90 said:
Perhaps I need to brush up on my chart reading skills because I still think tomorrow evening looks alright but the general consensus says otherwise.
From reading the last 10 pages, It depends on what your expectations are, and your location.
I will be satisfied if we get a couple of hours of snow and a dusting- like we did last week.
Ah who am I kidding! I want 60 cms of snow, everytime, but i doubt we would get that even with the perfect easterly setup, so i must adjust my expectations accordingly!
1-3 cm tomorrow night into Wednesday will do nicely!
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2 minutes ago, kold weather said:
ECM 18z continues with the theme of weakening the front over us. Barely worth a mention, probably 1-2cms, may not be much left in far eastern E,Anglia for example. Though you guys up there may well profit from Thursday.
Do you think the UKMO will end up backing it? Which model in your experience is the most trustworthy in these scenarios?
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1 hour ago, Jayces said:
Just after reading through 12 pages of content, and now it seems like Tuesday will be a non event. It all loooked so promising on page 152.
It will be a real kick in the teeth if we don't see snow at some point during the week. I could live with Tuesday being a non event, if Thursday delivered.
Actually, I would get over missing out on both if we ended up with a raging blizzard, due to a channel low, on the 16th of February, that dumped a foot and a half snow widely across the region.
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haha. It sure does look like the north and north west of Ireland is going to get a dumping at some stage next week
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What did yesterdays EC46 suggest?
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If i could bank a run, it would be that icon output for Tuesday
How accurate was the Icon for last Tuesday's snow?
I am of the view if it's too good to be true, then it usually isn't true, so that low will probably go too far north or too far south to give us snow. It would be great if it behaved itself this time and gave the region a dumping!
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8 minutes ago, kold weather said:
I wouldn't be happy if that's all we got, because I got pretty shafted with rain;...and rain...and rain!
All seriousness though, there is potential (despite my musing in the mod thread!) for our area if we can get a LP to run far enough south.
Sorry you missed out on Tuesday. I do hope you're right about an lp going far enough south.... The Icon, unlike the major models, seems to have been consistent in saying no to an Easterly or North Easterly. So if that model were to suddenly show one develop in early February, i would start to take notice. I just fear though we are locked into this pattern now.
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That would be a nice surprise to wake up to. I think we are not going to get an easterly or north easterly at this stage. There seems to be no shifting the piece of vortex over Canada, which is just spewing out low after low, giving the displaced high no chance to move northwards. I would love if someone could tell me this is going to change in February, but I just can't see it.
Still i will be happy enough if we get a couple of more events like Tuesday night. Of course I would love a raging blizzard that desposited upwards of 50 cms of snow widely across the region, but we can't always get what we want!
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So is Sunday our next chance for some snow. I have serious snow craving after last nights unexpected snow fall. As somesone said earlier ninja snow is the best!
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just a question about snow being too wet stick, is the real problem the temperature just being a bit too high rather the ground being too wet? I seem to recall in December 2010 , after it rained all day, then when the rain finally turned to snow in the evening, it started to stick quickly because the temperature plummeted.
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I should clarify I live about a 180 foot above sea level, so perhaps that's why it is sticking readily where I am.
SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018
in Regional
Posted
So it has begun!! Snowing moderately now!