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Day_9

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Everything posted by Day_9

  1. Day_9
    Crazy member wants -20 850’s so much scatter. I think we can safely say even at the short range we are probably in one of the most unpredictable winters for some time
  2. Day_9
    JFYI its called Eryri. Not the other word!!!
  3. Day_9
    there is, in beautiful technicolour, the forecasting accurate and “less accurate” timeframe of modern day meteorology
  4. Day_9
    There are three sliding channel lows in 3 days. If (and at this range it is highly improbable) but if something like that came off. …… a great example of a COBRA run
  5. Day_9
  6. Day_9
    2/3 say as cold or colder than now by boxing day. Tightening of lines as @tight isobar might say already evident. Expect consensus to start to trend sharply down after D7.
  7. Day_9
    GFS Op has been first onto the trend this year. And it takes a bold nosedive after the weekend. They will all fall in behind their master in the coming days.
  8. Day_9
    7 days of cold to go, even with the gfs. I have no idea about any of this but ensembles give a more rounded set of possibilities imo and only look to where there is consensus at 5 days max. Otherwise if anything else was possible, we’d have accurate long term forecasts and we don’t!
  9. Day_9
    They just forecast it getting even colder next week on R4
  10. Day_9
    I think it’s important to realise that many people will come to grave harm this winter. These synoptics spell black outs amid an energy and cost of living crisis. My heart goes out to out most vulnerable over the next few weeks.
  11. Day_9
    No, there has been consistent output now forecasting a week/10 day long snap. Look at the ensembles. Absolute consensus. Anything after that timeframe is always spaghetti whatever the model…….. enjoy the next week or so if cold is your thing. It is entirely conceivable that it becomes entrenched.
  12. Day_9
    One run doth not a trend make.
  13. Day_9
    i see nothing but consistency out to D10, messy after that - it often is but that is cold for a week irrespective of anything else
  14. Day_9
    i see no mild. Not for yonks. Whatever your views, there has been consensus with the ensembles. What ha been consistent is the continued upgrades beyond D5.
  15. Day_9
    How it starts and how it ends (at D10 anyway). it was like this 2 years ago if you remember. Ridiculously synoptics but always at or beyond D10 and the breakdown in here when it all ended was spectacular. yes it could easily go pear shaped but this one feels unflinching. Just be aware though that for everyone clapping their hands in glee, there will be many millions for whom this will not mean good news. Dazzling output, terrifying consequences at the moment for many.
  16. Day_9
    Well, whatever you get enjoy the weather, for me it’s another one written off. See you all for the chase again next year!
  17. Day_9
    Icon had it right?
  18. Day_9
    Have we learned nothing?
  19. Day_9
    im with you. The only thing model out puts do is speculation. How many D10 scenarios have ever verified. We’ll know where we are by Weds….
  20. Day_9
    Best post on here all winter.
  21. Day_9
    Lol 10 days out
  22. Day_9
    Stunning synoptics. Quite stunning, but then again…: aren’t they always? The reason this forum works is the thrill of the chase.: last year promised so much and delivered so little. As did the year before….. we really do need to bear in mind that anything beyond T120 is really fantasy island. great trending signals tho’
  23. Day_9
    That delivered 14 foot drifts in the Vale of Glamorgan - at sea level too!!
  24. Day_9
    Trends are cold and the Atlantic is out to lunch. That is all.
  25. Day_9
    I’m thinking of this last week as the starter....
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