Day_9

Who said it’s all over. This would be so cold and snowy

Reasons to be cheerful. If it’s obvious to a total amateur like me...... no Atlantic to back up lows. The reliable is 4 days at best (RT in my crayon below). The ‘warm up’ is already being moderated, get back under the 30 yr mean !!! Look at that spread beyond and into fantasy island some 15 degrees celcius so i would worry at all. All of the trends have been for cold. When the ECM latched onto it, the GFS gave up the ghost, (probably not able to handle the series of SSW’s and using default bias) but it soon came back on board. We are in a prolonged cold spell which even here in the far south of Wales, frosty mornings have been nice to have, and frequent too. (Certainly more than in recent years). I cannot see it ending in February....

Has nobody noticed that the Atlantic is broken? Up on blocks so to speak. Factor in good coupling post multiple SSW’s and any “breakdown” just means snow. We are not having anything mild or zonal for quite some time to come. the ‘mild period’ is only going to be mild relative to now, which isn’t very mild at all and increasing all members will dip back under the 30yr mean imo. shortwaves? Bring em on!!!

5 days

All Atlantic lows become sliders as they get crushed by sheer strength of cold and nothing behind them as back up to drive em through

Seriously, how can the Atlantic ever recover from that? Look at the drain potential of that black stuff Siberia and beyond. Gallons of the stuff filters our way. Heavy cold

There’s a mass production facility for them just off Canada. With a bit of luck we get persistent sliders and entrenched cold

The plucky little ICON

This is why you dont have to panic. Once we reach the bottom it’s a long way to go to get back above that 30yr average.... 4 or 5 days out at best is all you can really read into for specifics the rest as you can see really is fantasy island and the vortex undergoes a 4th warming event..... long cold spring on the horizon. The tomatoes will be slow this year

Don’t worry, the drum has been beating for cold all winter. And now we have arrived almost at T0.....4/5 days max look ahead from here on in, enjoy as it unfolds

some ridiculous slider potential out to our west on that chart

Bonkers really, particularly if minus double digits 850’s are in place....

It is possible. The op at 144 ish has a conveyor belt of lows queuing up to roll along the southern coasts. Surely some massive snowmaking potential in there with the cold from the east setting in....

There’s barely a member above the 30 yr average. Everything is down down deeper and down right until the end of the semi reliable timeframe. Is that called agreement? Beyond 120 and often 96+ is guesswork. this is how a prolonged spell digs in.... agreement on cold. Next question is can it get a foothold?

I think everyone is still suffering PTSD from THAT ecm......

The overwhelming message is this: All the trends have consistently been for a drop in temps. Across all models, by far and away the trend is towards cold. Flitting between just cold (like now and most of this winter) to VERY cold as is now coming into view. We are approaching our third assault on the polar vortex in a little over a month So, also no Atlantic and it would appear that the biggest spoiler could be weak defences from Mediterranean air. my money is on the plucky little icon. It seems to be good at picking out the final solution in a shorter term this year. Or maybe that’s just me. Either way terrific charts this last few weeks and we are approaching T0

DONT PANIC CAPTAIN MANNERING SIR. the trend is a nosedive and a decent one at that. That is all so, feet up and occupy thine selves in readiness for a sustained bout of monkeys.

You’re back!!

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/33865-the-severe-winter-of-1928-29/ this sounds awfully like this year and the set up post SSW is almost identical..........

Where is @tight isobar when you need him?

Classic flip coming up with some insane runs next week. And also some very mild wet solutions or just cold and wet. The additional vortex split will not be helpful to much clarity on a run by run basis. Time to reduce frequency of checking, its wasted time for a few days yet

Reasons to be cheerful. Tomorrow’s forecast will be white for many, enjoy it whilst its there! the trend still says Down! This ‘blip’ on Sunday / Monday is slowly being eroded and from the 20th they are clueless. Don’t forget all those inputs being collected from weather balloons etc in an already shot NH....... there is no Atlantic force, and we have a good 6-10 weeks left yet, bearing in mind that March can be quite a snowy month.......

Temperature drop imminent. A much more organised set here. Lets get that little hump under the line and outlook is back as it overwhelmingly has been all winter- cold. And it has been cold.

Vile chart for a coldie but the models are not forecasts, they just generate multiple scenarios that people use to make a forecast. As a total newb to this im just sticking to one chart - the 850s gfs ens. And what that chart shows us in black and white is that beyond day 4/5 most models are useless. (Circled red) what I do know though is that whilst they might be not very specific and very sensitive to variables in their inputs, trend is how you make sense and the trend has been and remains cold...... on we go!

Wavy but universal agreement. i do not like it at all but thats what we are getting in the very short term.... however.... they ALL go colder in the relatively near term, even on the ‘disastrous’ latest run. I don’t see any cause for concern the trend has been cool and cold all winter and we are only 5 weeks in really.