Day_9

There are some insane perturbations on the 18z. The OP absolutely off the hook calling for minus 9/12 in Wales by the end of it. Surely just still processing a significant ssw? BUT, while there are swings the overall trend remains freezing

Balanced view - no more than 5 days out and thats 850s back colder than they are now and I wouldn’t exactly say it has been mild today. some very cold uppers being sniffed out. The trend is a sharp nosedive in temps but by the weekend, will that drop continue or plateau?

During a “mild” week

So absolutely great trends yesterday. Yes there is a bit of scatter in there longer term but it’s well below the 30 year mean and so all they are now trying to settle on is how cold. Pub run went a bit wonky but the mean and op both remained below 30yr average. some frigid uppers in there for sure but it would be unsurprising for a mild outlier to come true......

Friday to Sunday and look at that change. A much better handle on the “mild” interlude and then a crash. Great views and trend is the friend here. And he’s a coldie!! The cold is being firmly sniffed out now. More on board for a longer term and much less scatter.

Wasn’t winter declared over in the first week of December? anyhow, for what it’s worth....I don’t know much about meteorology but I do know how to spot trends in data and they are all only going in one direction. As we get closer to an uptick in mild it gets shortened, the effects of an ssw also always seem to play havoc but they are sniffing it out and the trend is only down

Thats all the mild you’re getting. 3 days of 5 Celsius uppers. Look how many are now getting on the right side of that black line and some are keeping it cold for the forseeable.......

What was that Status Quo tune? Down down, deeper and down

IT IS CERTAINLY HOTTING UP BUT NOT IN TEMPERATURE TERMS..... THE MILD SPELL IS TOAST

That mild hump is getting obliterated with each run. Also more and more digging down into cold uppers. Expect more to join the party over the next 5 days. The non existent vortex is getting a second and more ferocious assault soon so goodnight Atlantic. I am a complete novice.

I don’t think we will See any return to mild anytime soon and if we do it will be VERY short lived 3 days or so at most. Doesn’t look mild to me, temps at the surface will be cool to cold and beyond day 7 its a mess, but there are some very cold uppers starting to show up so ....

This mild period is getting shorter and shorter on each run. Also significant shift to cold by increasing numbers later on in the run. Snow row maintains local interest this evening. freezing Still FI but trend is your friend, mean and control both call cold, OP has reverted away from it’s accelerated mild. Does a freezing February await???

It’s been much colder than we’ve had in a good few years, even down here on the snow starved Welsh Riviera, lots of frosts and icy mornings and i’m at sea level. The BFTE 2 yrs ago absolutely wiped us out, as did 2010 and there have been nice coverings for us in between all that. its hard when the momentum just flips. We’ve had nothing but cold trending charts alL winter and taking the more prudent view at only Considering 120hrs max and the GEFS has it staying on the cold side in the reliable. theres even a few in there at the end with -15ish........ They’ll be saying uppers too cold for snow then

The last one I followed went all over the shop and got it completely wrong

Cheers, where can we easily reference verification rates?

......in 10 days. What was this model forecasting 10 days ago?

That’s it, all unraveling after so much prolonged trending of cold.

Back to 10 days away! Interesting to see snow row numbers getting pushed back into the same T240 timeframe...... . Overall though is there not widespread consensus on the trend to a decent spell of below average temps?

M4 strikes again !

Meters of snow

Shortwave incoming.

The uppers aren’t cold enough mun, come on, keep up!

Thanks, what about the 850s and 500s which most seem to use here.

Yea but i can’t see where to read an 850 chart, or a 500 for that matter.

I can’t really understand the charts, there are no guides to what are the lines, whats the colours, is yellow good? Purple? Which one and when. Nowhere can you find the info to learn. however, since pretty much November, the entire trend has been cold. Consistently. That tells you all that you need to know