Day_9

Just a question like, is there anywhere you go to can look at say charts from last Sunday or even 240 back for today and see which ones actually verified

Here you go, forgot to include above

The jet is stuffed. Look how much cold air is spilling over the NH. We are simply gradually sliding into a jaw dropping winter period from now over the next 10 days. The organisation i work for has been provided significant cold forecasts from gov and also private forecasting services. For many of our more rural and farming communities, this will now be a fun time ahead, but a very dangerous and costly one

It looks cold in Cardiff. Only 3 out of 20 members register above 0 and thats at the end. The snow row is getting closer each day too..... the transition may be quicker than we think.

Cardiff looking cold for the forseeable and snowy from the 19th ish on....

ICON nailed Feb/march BFTE better than any model

Thats because we live in a world where we are becoming trained to expect instant response. Likes, clicks, instant feed. I haven’t generally got much of a clue, I just love ice cold weather, snow, harsh frosts etc. what I do know is that the globe and processes involved in it are larger and more complex than most of our abilities’ to comprehend. it’s therefore highly likely that changes in any weather pattern are usually in the order of weeks rather than minutes or hours.

Run it on just 5 days and we are stuck in a north / north west/ or north east flow for the forseeable.

Is there anywhere I can go to learn how to read these please?

I know NOTHING about reading these outputs but i have keenly lurked here fir a number of seasons. The ICON has been nailed on the last 2 winters and in the ever uphill struggle in the UK, it is the only one offering us hope. Off the back of it’s consistency in recent years, lets hope it’s right again!!

Just check out the strat thread if you need reassurance. Steady as she blows, eyes forwards. Cold incoming...

Chucking it down in Penarth again right now almost blizzard again

Why? Here in Penarth we have drifts of 1m+ already. This snow is mesmerising. Another 24hrs? Yes please

First post here. Report from Penarth, many 1m drifts no problem we will be looking at an average of 1’ snow depth with drifts of 5 - 6 ‘. What it’s like north of here, Pontypridd etc I can only imagine. i can remember 1982, I was 8 and my dad woke me up and said look out of the window -it was all snow, 7’ drift against the house. Those scenes and memories will be repeated tomorrow and Saturday. It it is absolutely chucking it down, tiny icy flakes. Utterly spellbinding and beautiful when the light catches it\. birds are being well fed, if I had the room I would take in humans without roofs. I have distributed cash, food and cannabis across the city centre today and yesterday. good luck everyone.

Simplicity in a nutshell. The one big data input that models are failing badly with is a total reversal almost the whole atmosphere of the Northern Hemisphere. That’s the base colour for our painting, EVERYTHING else is happening within that overall context and that situation could persist for 6 weeks quite easily.

There is no polar vortex. It’s completely obliterated. That’s it, done until it reforms in the autumn. The entire northern hemisphere’s atmosphere is spinning the other way. A mild incursion may mean 850s getting up to -8 I think the only thing about thurs/fri to worry about is the track of the low. At the moment, my understanding is that the South half Wales from Newquay to Newport and Barry to Brecon is in for a long overdue pasting. Take care folks, I can remember the late 70s and early/mid 80s. Even as a kid by the end you used to start getting sick of the winter. Powdered milk on your cornflakes anyone? ?

Really? Even down here in Penarth? We did well in 2010 (very well) and 2013 had enough for a snow day and not doing a great deal. Can we get sustained cover down to sea level this year ? The possible channel low attacking from the south given all other parameters looks like it could turn into a 48 hr blizzard.

Don’t fancy getting snowed in round yours ??

This just sounds epic. A week/10 days of wall to wall snow?

Nobody? Are we talking down to sea level?

I don’t think I can take much more of this but why i do come here is for pure cold charts (I couldn’t tell a cold one from a warm one but can tell an experienced / expert from a hype generator. All I know is this. You can get snow to sea level in the UK even in April. On Easter Sunday 1998 I woke up to snow on the beach whilst my now wife and I were having a weekend away in a caravan and it was bloody freezing..... it’s obvious that SSW science is VERY young therefore when a warning as dramatic as this one which is in chartered territory, even the experts are unsure....

First post I’m a massive cold fan and what’s obvious to an idiot like me (who might as well be looking at the wall as one of those charts), is that if we could accurately forecast the weather beyond 48/72 hours then we’d already be doing so. In 1947 weather went from mild Atlantic to one of the worst nationwide snow events in living memory, all in the space of 3 days. So a couple of mild runs won’t make a jot of difference. The actual behaviour of global atmospherics trumps any insignificant human attempt to predict them, we understand about 5% of Astro and atmospheric physics. I imagine what’s appealing about model watching is the endless options they spew out and the discussion thereof.