WalsallWeather123
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Posts posted by WalsallWeather123
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4 minutes ago, Always a red said:
Its the one the MO are more than hinting at but of course you know that anyway
The point is that it's long range. It may or may not happen. I'm not saying it won't, I'm just suggesting the models don't show any signs of that at the moment. Therefore, it is very hard to predict. When people post a chart of one the GEFS members which show an easterly, they go into snow Armageddon mode. I'm just saying expectations need to be kept in check. This is a hunt for cold thread, not plucking cold out of thin air thread. Anyway end of topic.
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32 minutes ago, Johnp said:
What cold spell?
The one that everyone claims is coming at the end of the month
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IMO, people have taken the MO long forecast as gospel for a cold spell in early December. Of course a month is a long time but posting individual member charts as to try and convince a cold spell is coming isn't too clever.
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I honestly don't see where this cold spell, which is supposedly coming at the end of the month, is coming from. I think our weather will be Atlantic driven until December. No model is showing a sustained period of blocking which can keep the Atlantic at bay
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Half an attempt of a scandi high on the GFS 18z
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Better ECM than the 0z but still underwhelming for long term prospects of cold
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7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:
I was thinking Exeter expected the Euro high to ridge into Scandy longer term, it might still happen but the models seem to have moved away from that scenario over the last 48 hours..
Sorry OT, but what/who is Exeter?
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1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:
That contingency planners forecast isnt tragic actually, its near enough 50/50 on milder or colder, milder just slight odds on, thats usually a tell tale sign of mixed weather, that could easily mask one or two stonking spells, i have never been all that sold on this being a brutal winter overall but i do think there will be some fireworks at times.
100% agree. November for sure will be wet and windy driven by the atlantic. After that its anyones guess. The problem is people overreacting to one model. Particulalry certian weather twitter accounts who 'dream' about snow. Causes false expectations. The hunt for cold is well into December which is impossible to predict
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Potential for snow over higher ground up north with this set-up
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40 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:
How can we have a repeat of October 2018? The original version has a few days to run!
How this particular cold snap panned out was never the issue, the main point is continued blocking patterns - to the NE after the weekend and this still shows on the models.
Have you looked at the recent ECM run. No attempt of blocking to NE at all
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Just now, Allseasons-si said:
The 18z isn't out until 10:30 this evening,maybe you meant the 12z.
Yes I meant 18z. Its awfully quiet here which tells you everything you need to know. The cold snap on saturday also downgraded. Some areas may even get double figures and people were talking about a repeat of October 2018 lol
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ECM 12z and GFS 18z failing to build heights to NE. Not good if you want cold
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42 minutes ago, davehsug said:
Oh the joy of a genuinely non-cold day today! The first time in 6 months that the wind hasn't felt like it's come straight off a glacier! More please, more!
Careful. Soon you'll be accused of mild bias and being a troll
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The fact is around bham no one saw more than a bit on cars and grass. So my predicition was right. 2-3 days ago, ECM showed 6-8 inches for bham. But because i disagreed im a troll???
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36 minutes ago, AppleUK 123 said:
And you can stop with your ridiculous Mild Bias! Daniel please ignore such people your doing great...far better than LondonSnowWatch!
LondonSnowWatch is by far the best amateur forecaster on twitter. Much better than thesnowdreamer. I also hold metsaunby2 in high regard and he also rates LondonSnowWatch very highly
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1 hour ago, Daniel* said:
Don’t agree whatsoever silly apps grrr! Euro4 has temps between 2-3C for most of of you. Cold enough just about. (Furthermore there is often added cooling not considered from sustained pretty heavy ppn). And there’s a large disparity still HIRLAM has dew point barely above 0C..
Mate I know you call yourself thesnowdreamer lol. But there is no chance of snow accumulations in Midlands. Stop giving false hope to people with your ridiculous snow bias. You do it everywhere and claim you have a very successful record when you just pick and choose model outputs that suit you for clickbait
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19 hours ago, AppleUK 123 said:
Once again another defeatist post from none other than WalsallWeather123, Monday has always been a marginal situation so don't know why your saying 'game over' for anyone south of Birmingham, you must be able to see into the future..
Today for eg parts of Exmoor and Dartmoor saw falling and settling snow which was not forecast, nobody really knows in these situations!
Time to eat your words I think
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3 minutes ago, Barometer Cat said:
Yellow warning ⚠️ for snow cancelled for Leicestershire. Replaced with yellow warning for rain. Pants.
If I put this I would have been accused of been defeatist lol
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35 minutes ago, AppleUK 123 said:
Once again another defeatist post from none other than WalsallWeather123, Monday has always been a marginal situation so don't know why your saying 'game over' for anyone south of Birmingham, you must be able to see into the future..
Today for eg parts of Exmoor and Dartmoor saw falling and settling snow which was not forecast, nobody really knows in these situations!
Exmoor and Dartmoor are high ground lol. I'm talking about the towns and cities. And it's not defeatist. It's based on model output. All show majority rain Bham southwards
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Game over for Birmingham south on Monday. Very brief possibility of snow but mainly a washout
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2 hours ago, shaky said:
Yup very heavy snowfall event still very much on for midlands and north england monday into tuesday!!gfs and ukmo look really good with cold easterly winds undercutting at t120 hours!!
I don't know what charts you're looking at mate. Either you're ill-informed or don't know how to interpret models
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6 hours ago, Staffordshire said:
You need to chill out. This was being shown in the forecast about 5/7 days ahead so was perfectly reasonable to speculate on it, yes it didn't come to fruition, but it wasn't a cold bias.
Yh but when the models show milder conditions 7 days away, everyone is commenting on how inaccurate they are and how anything can change but when they are showing cold, everyone jumps on the bandwagon and claims beast from the east 3.0 is on the way. Nonsense
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On 22/03/2018 at 19:31, MattStoke said:
Snow accumulation Wednesday
Snow accumulation Friday
As usual cold bias dog biscuits. Where is this snow now eh?
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2 hours ago, The Wolf said:
Seriously. We have had way more than that here. I do remember you were quite emphatic that most of us would only get a couple of cm's. Seems most of us had a lot more than that I am very surprised you only had two cm's. Have had about 4 inches here along with decent drifts. Main roads are now clear but side roads are icy and have snow on.
I referred to Bham/Black Country. But yes, seems like a lot of variation even over a short distance
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Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Indian Summer on the ECM!