Jonathan Rhodri Roberts
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Everything posted by Jonathan Rhodri Roberts
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Model output discussion 02/02/20
Jonathan Rhodri Roberts replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It's so nice to see GEFS still bringing a half decent weekend with a ridge on Saturday but more especially from Mon - Thu next week giving us in South Wales (and elsewhere in southern UK) some much needed drier weather, thereafter a hint of low pressure returning but obviously that's a long way off yet. -
Model output discussion 02/02/20
Jonathan Rhodri Roberts replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Interesting to see all that snow streaming into west Wales especially with the gales or severe gales that's also forecast -
Model output discussion 02/02/20
Jonathan Rhodri Roberts replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I'm optimistic of a half decent weekend here in S Wales and also across S England with that higher pressure just about edging in from France on the GFS 12z ?? -
Model output discussion 02/02/20
Jonathan Rhodri Roberts replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Hooray GFS 6z has a high 1025mb across S Wales & S England this weekend so no torrential rain/thunder or gales for a change ️ -
Model output discussion 02/02/20
Jonathan Rhodri Roberts replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Not quite as stormy (at the moment anyway) as the infamous Feb 2014 that really was horrendous -
Model output discussion 02/02/20
Jonathan Rhodri Roberts replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Plenty of showers but nothing thundery showing up on the CAPE/LI, I guess that's because the upper air is milder. Cold unstable air usually brings the thundery downpours at this time of year from off relatively mild seas -
Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat
Jonathan Rhodri Roberts replied to Summer Sun's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
I worry if we can't break out of these prolonged periods of overcast skies even within high pressure systems, sunshine amounts could be lower than average and therefore keeping the temperatures down too I'd have thought -
Well I must say last Summer wasn't too bad at all especially July, now that was very dry. Doesn't a -NAO mean low to the south and high to north though? if so it managed to bring us a reasonable Summer here in South Wales and across southern England but I'm sure the high was close to the south and lows were further north so I assumed that meant a +NAO?
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Model output discussion - into Christmas
Jonathan Rhodri Roberts replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Well a what a turnaround on the cards from a rainfall/flooding point of view, now this is a marvellous GFS run for southern UK with it becoming much, much drier (finally, especially in South Wales & SW England) while NW Scotland becomes much, much wetter than its been this Autumn a good hint the jet is moving north taking it's lows with it and higher pressure is becoming more influential in the south Thanks Santa ?? -
Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat
Jonathan Rhodri Roberts replied to Summer Sun's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
As nice as it would be to see a bit of snow, a decent period of fine, sunny weather would be equally just as nice, wouldn't you agree? -
Model output discussion - into Christmas
Jonathan Rhodri Roberts replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Hi, I'm not sure which thread I need to report data issues but I don't know if you're aware Netweather team, the storm forecast seems to be having data issues with the LI index over the past week or so as you can see from the screenshot for tomorrow for Porthcawl, south Wales. There is a further thunder risk through tomorrow showing on the models but LI around 0 to -1 not -30 lol -
Model output discussion - into Christmas
Jonathan Rhodri Roberts replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Still a drier path though hopefully? ?? -
Great to see to the GFS pumping out lots more instability with some decent CAPE again early next week towards the W & SW of the UK Fantastic cloud structures towering behind South Wales teatime yesterday, best I've seen for years around here but not a single flash of lightning! This was the view from Porthcawl
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Model output discussion - late November
Jonathan Rhodri Roberts replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
A fine spell of weather still on the cards for early December as high pressure builds in for a short time, but after what's been the case during Oct & Nov with frequent and often persistent rain, even that is better than nothing ️?? -
Model output discussion - late November
Jonathan Rhodri Roberts replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
So nice to see high pressure becoming more dominant down to the SW from December instead of low, I know that's not good news snow-wise but after another very wet period coming up this weekend and lasting into next week for SE Ireland, the Westcountry & S Wales a much drier spell will be very welcome by many ️ -
So the chase for the first snowflake to fall for this season is already over for some of us in South Wales as well as parts of Ireland & down into the Westcountry in mid-November lol, even on the coast it was 2-3C with some sleetiness, not as good as snow I know but it's not bad going considering the sea temperatures are still around 12-13C Through next week the lows take a different track though and a result winds begin to turn SW'ly bringing temperatures back up to normal or possibly a tad above by the end of the week but unfortunately still no sign of settled weather returning for the foreseeable future