Jonathan Rhodri Roberts

Well it's much better than all this wind & rain. Nice weather to get out and about during the Christmas holidays without getting soaked everywhere you go ️

Cardiff 850mb GEFS ranges from -7 to +9C between Christmas & NY so could go either way but at least the precipitation spikes are much lower than recently ??

An unsettled end to what's been a very wet Autumn in South Wales with some flooding from 'stuck rainbands' some producing 100-200mm in a day over high ground at times. It's been often windy with gales on the coast in the last few weeks but mostly mild except for frosts during October half term week but these were followed by mostly sunny days. Sunshine recorded in my location is just 8.2 hours so far this month, well below normal. However the first week of Winter does look like we'll see a pattern change in time for the Christmas holidays with high pressure near or over us allowing the saturated ground to begin drying out somewhat and possibly more sunshine around as the evenings are now very slowly getting lighter again

That's what I was thinking, so it's fair to say here on the south coast of Wales there'll be nothing for us to get excited about for a good few weeks yet with any lows very likely to bring the plain old rain but further inland and particularly the valleys could do very well in January?

I know the seas around us don't reach their coldest until end of Feb/ start of March but do these look a bit higher than normal for mid December, especially in the English Channel & Irish Sea? If so, would I be right thinking this would have a big knock on effect snow-wise particularly for coastal locations as we head into January?

It would be dry though across central & southern UK which would make a change as the last dry, sunny Christmas Day we had in Porthcawl was back in 2010, every year since then has been pretty bleak to say the least for the big day

We're doing a charity walk up Pen y Fan, Brecon on Saturday and now the forecast for the summit is snow (some heavy around midday) throughout the day until early evening when it changes back to rain. Meanwhile 'just down the road' parts of coastal South Wales could reach a balmy 13-14C by Saturday afternoon! Crazy weather

We're doing a charity walk up Pen y Fan Brecon this weekend and snow is in the forecast ???????? as well as rain along with thundery showers but also some sunshine, for us it'll definitely be the coldest weather we've seen since March

Sounds promising for us here on the coast of South Wales, I wasn't sure if the sea temps would be low enough but given the right setup we can sometimes get some really good/heavy snowfalls from the west with even some thundersnow ??

Oh I forgot to say thanks very much to @Summer Sun for the link you sent to me yesterday to the snow depth chart, much appreciated ??

Either on Meteociel.fr or on their app

Big 'battleground' across South Wales showing... Here on the coast in Porthcawl it's expected to be 3C with some rain or possibly sleet at times on Friday but rising up to a whopping 14C with wind & rain on Saturday "what a difference a day makes, 24 little hours" lol!

Wow! What's going on Fri/Sat? A huge 10C difference in Porthcawl

To be honest after all the frequent rain and floods over the past few weeks here in South Wales, I personally wouldn't mind a cold and dry period at all and each extra day it lasts would be a big bonus ??

Where can I find those snow depth charts please? I'd like to see if any snow is expected in either Cardiff or Swansea, I've a feeling the sea temperatures could still be too mild for any in my area (Porthcawl) (10-11C)

I have no idea what's going on with the models tonight as some weather apps are struggling, they're all over the place next week, some suggesting temperatures here in South Wales will be 6C rising to 14C and dropping back to 4C in just 3 hours, wind gusts over 3 hours 50-12-65mph, pressure 1010-955-1000mb what the hell?

A classic easterly set up there, with many of us in western areas (away from the north) staying dry, probably much more sunnier too with frosty nights throughout that time period ??

That was a day!! We didn't get much snow on the coast of south Wales but we did see severe gales for an hour in the morning as a low zipped through with temps rising up to about 9C, however just an hour later the winds eased and temperatures fell back to 3C!! Never seen anything like it, it was crazy this chart shows the Mumbles weather station recordings for that day (nr Swansea) and the low which brought the fun and games to many in one way or another

Could get a snow to rain event in southwest Wales if things fall into place with these charts. Ok the snow probably wouldn't last long on the ground before the rain washes/melts it away but nevertheless it would be nice to watch

I don't like the sound of this, I presume this *could* mean the jet stream is going to become even stronger? Honestly I dread to hear the words snowstorm in the eastern US & El Nino as it reminds me of the mild but very stormy winter 2013/14

Unfortunately for those of us in the west it's a big disappointment with METO saying basically the worst conditions will often be across western & northern areas. Here in west wales we've already been flooded 3 times since October and I fear we'll be going through it again in December too with these awful forecasts

Wow look what's going on here, long drawn southerlies on the GFS 18z, I know it's in FI but 10C @850mb across Ireland during the first week of December! That would already be above average for the surface temperature let alone higher up @850mb, colder air stuck further to the east

Is that going to completely take over from the GFS? If so that's a shame because only last year I think it was that they added 1hr timeframes to them which is far more detailed and very useful IMO, GFS Para doesn't when I looked at it recently only the original 3hr timeframes, a step backwards?

According to the long term CFS, after a colder than average December, Jan & Feb is average followed once again by a very cold March, personally I'd have liked to have seen that in Jan/first half of Feb as the days would still be quite short with a weak sun and cold sea temperatures giving southern & western coasts some snow too and not just the cold old rain/sleet but having said that, March delivered for us this year in South Wales, it was so unusual battling through blizzards during St Davids day celebrations

That's certainly possible as here on the coast in South Wales, the last week of October brought us 4 frosty mornings which is unusual as the sea temp in our part of the Bristol Channel was around 15C, just a week later it fell to 13C but after the mild, wet weather last week it remains at 13C