Jonathan Rhodri Roberts

Late Jan - mid March for me when the Bristol Channel is at it's coldest, that for us here on the coast is often a 'make or break' to whether it'll be snow, sleet or just the plain old rain

After a disappointingly cloudy, wet & windy week (half term for some of us) in SW UK, there are hopes at least of the sunshine returning from the north by Sunday, with northerly winds it may well become much drier in the far South of Wales & South Devon with a bit of shelter from the mountains/moors to start next week, ideal for Bonfire night itself. Some forecasts are hinting at this possibility ??

That would be great news for half term here in Wales, we had a unseasonably mild February half term, can it really happen again, fingers crossed it can ??

High pressure fest across UK & Ireland on the GFS! Is it too early for me to crack open a bottle and start celebrating the expected return of the high next week?

GFS 0z showing the heaviest/most persistent rain to be pushing further east during the week ahead so Ireland would become much drier and perhaps much less rain falling than recently across parts of Wales and SW England once we get through this wet weekend

Bore da pawb - good morning everyone from a cloudier & cooler southwest Wales after yesterday's warmth with 27C on the west coast as forecasted by all weather models from around 5 days or so ago the fresher air has arrived already and will remain across western areas of the UK throughout the week ahead which will starting from tonight, bring cooler nights and any heat being confined to the east. The wettest weather around during the next 5 days will be in NW Scotland with heavy rain at times, W Ireland and another area running up through the Irish Sea, some showers possible in the east too.

Well for SW areas of the UK, the models have consistently shown any real warmth to be nothing more than a 'glancing blow' on Saturday, this still remains the case as 25-26C is still very much possible, sea breezes around the coast will keep it a bit cooler but still very pleasant and with a high UV in all areas. Sunday then turns much fresher with a mix of cloud and sunshine and it looks like staying dry into the start of next week, so looking pretty good even though the warmth only lasts a day. Some reasonable CAPE by Monday in eastern areas but I don't think much will come out of it. ️

A much drier 10 days outlook to look forward to here in SW UK and turning warmer too with 23-24C possible in SE Wales and highs of 22-23C in Devon

Looking better for the south from 9 days or so time, high pressure returning but how influential it'll be throughout the following 4 weeks of summer who knows?

Well we really can't complain here in SW UK, it's been a dry July so welcome rain for many, just a shame it has to be during the kids holidays. I heard that Milford Haven has had about 50mm less than the July average of 70mm. I'll put a fiver on there being a return to high pressure and fine weather when the kids start back to school in September as it happens here about 95% of Septembers lol

Scattered overnight thunderstorms Tuesday night across SW England & Wales quickly clearing the very warm, sultry air away by Wednesday morning leaving a fresher feeling day but still pleasantly warm (high teens / low 20's) and perhaps most importantly, turning drier again under a weak ridge, still hot & humid further east with a continuing risk of thunderstorms breaking out

Indeed, surface temperatures were very high last year all thanks to prolonged dry weather with light winds, coastal west Wales for example was frequently hitting the high 20's especially in June but all that daytime heat didn't go very far overnight either, Mumbles weather station nr Swansea recorded quite a few nights with a minimum overnight temperature of 20C, something which thankfully hasn't occurred so far this year

Oh no not again this month

Another day when the GFS shows a whopping amount of CAPE together with a very high negative lifted index. But of course let's not get excited as it's three times it's shown this for southwestern areas in the last 10 days. Looks like more tweaking is still needed on this model regarding these values, they're still way overdone

Unusually strong to gale force gusts of wind with that heat though for here in southwestern UK so that'll really take the edge of the temperature I'd have thought

Some big CAPE showing for southern areas on Wednesday night into Thursday but high pressure 1020-1025mb is close by so perhaps less risk of rain/thunderstorms around by then

These charts for next week are absolutely bonkers! Such huge temperature contrasts Southern UK..... Summer arrives in style in central, southern and eastern England with 30C+ possible in London but Spring continues to trundle on in western areas, just 13C here in west Wales next Tues! a more typical April day even though we'll have just passed the summer solstice. For eastern Scotland unseasonably cold

S&E you mean? Not much showing for the west atm anyway

A tad disappointing this run for me when I'll be camping in Pembrokeshire, only Tuesday will be around average, Wednesday looks very cool @13C a bit like this week, of course there's a chance though if we avoid the very warm humid air we might actually miss the storms and stay drier perhaps

Out of interest when people often refer to a NW/SE split, what would South Wales come under as obviously we're in the western half of the U.K. but closer to the SE than the NW? Next week for example what weather can we expect?

Will the hourly timeframe GFS forecast still be available or is only the original 3hr one on the new model?

ECM still keeps the high pressure nudging in from the Atlantic, (it's been suggesting this since Sunday) so increasing confidence that northern & western areas especially will at least see a couple of days of fine settled weather beginning and middle of next week but low pressure could quickly return by next Thursday, still if that decent spell comes off although short, its better than nothing ️

Well the ECM is still keen on an Atlantic blocking high which moves closer to the UK & Ireland next week (1020-1025mb), so western & northern areas especially settling down for 2 or 3 days short but better than nothing, no heatwave but feeling pleasant in the strong June sunshine, however low pressure remains on the near continent so the east could stay rather mixed at times

The latest radar..... A good clearance across southwest England and brighter skies are pushing in here to South Wales after some torrential downpours earlier on the back edge of the rain. Thunderstorms on the continent

ECM still looks promising for next week with a nice build of high pressure keeping the low firmly to the south for a time so should see a decent 3 or 4 days of strong June sunshine something to look forward to fingers crossed ??