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Everything posted by Rayth
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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?
Rayth replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?
Rayth replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?
Rayth replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Could be heading for the mother of all fantasy lands here ... -
Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?
Rayth replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The milder side of the mogreps? , like the ecm was doing earlier this week with its own ensembles perhaps ? -
Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?
Rayth replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?
Rayth replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Wednesday instead of Tuesday ? -
Is MOGREPS the Mets ensemble ? Like the GEFS for example?
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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?
Rayth replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?
Rayth replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
A mere 45 mins ago posters were giving winter the last rights then ecm bursts in the room with a defibillator -
Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?
Rayth replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Don’t even know what to say theres definitely another ‘ FLIP’ coming this morning , it will be when @nick sussex wakes up and flips out -
Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?
Rayth replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Never mind trying to get two models to converge , we can’t get two posters to agree on the same output .. doomed we are ! -
Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?
Rayth replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?
Rayth replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
With that wording I’m expecting Winterfell from the UKMO in the days to come -
Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?
Rayth replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
A snowy Calcutta Cup @Catacol ? what I find fascinating is the OP’s constantly veering to the mild of their ensemble , but their mean having none of this , there just has to be a jaw dropper of an op run coming , really interested if this forecast -NAO happens , it’s been elusive to going negative for the entire winter ! And with Easter coming early this year ... frozen bunny anyone ? -
Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?
Rayth replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?
Rayth replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
For my area at least , the op goes on a rogue quest for a bit , even the control abandons it , the ‘pub run’ would just have to pick a perb below the mean and then it’s euphoria in here again later -
Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?
Rayth replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
@Mucka indeed ! Quite a dive by the mean , wasn’t expecting that -
Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?
Rayth replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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I thought the Strat was supposed to have the meltdown not the ECM
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Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?
Rayth replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?
Rayth replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
My goodness ! I nearly choked on my smoked haddock when I seen @Tamara ‘Ramping’ a GFS run ?, are the stars aligning ? Are we on the cusp ? Will Tamara’s head be right all along ! Tune in next time on ... The Northen Hemisphere’s got *potential* impending talent !!! -
Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?
Rayth replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
If the control run verified with its -15 uppers then we’d have no power and four foot snow drifts and would have to get a hamster in a wheel to charge our phones !! -
Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?
Rayth replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The 00z run played out eerily close the the METO Text forecast ! -
Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?
Rayth replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Surly this forecast is a GFS over reaction ? -
Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?
Rayth replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Especially the control run in FL , can’t post an image at the moment but it’s eye candy !