Rayth

Couldn’t agree more with this , @Catacol mentioned Dr Amy Butler and she gave an analogy on Twitter too , she wrote Here’s a simple (but imperfect) analogy. Think of a big bowl of water where you start stirring in one direction very fast. That’s like the winter stratosphere, 6-30 miles above the Arctic.Now you put your hand into the spinning flow. What happens? The water rapidly decelerates and the flow would become chaotic. In the atmosphere, atmospheric waves are slamming into the stratospheric flow and decelerating it. This makes the atmosphere rapidly warm.In the stratosphere when the vortex rapidly slows, those effects descend down to the surface. It generally shifts jet streams towards the equator which allows colder Arctic air to move to lower latitudes

Greenland and Svalbard will be anonymously warm the amount of HLB that will be over them ?

Thanks @Bring Back1962-63 And also @ghoneym for your help today , trying to learn the MJO and now being distracted by Strat , head mashed

Bang on as usual @nick sussex ! Are the Strat and Trop coupled well at the moment ? Reason I ask is after this potential ( and I say potential as I don’t want to jinx) SSW I’m wondering about the lag timeframe until the effects are felt in the troposphere ?

I find it interesting that yesterday’s ecm 12z was showing 51/51 members heading towards +ve GPH/MSLP rises over Scandinavia by d13/14. maybe that’s where the GFS 00z OP was sniffing out ??

The two mild spikes the GFS had been showing for next week have been steadily getting flattened in the GEFS resulting in the mild fingers being squeezed as we enter higher resolution time , @ T168 plenty time for this to happen again , yet it doesn’t last long anyway on this ECM run

Thank you , yes it’s forecast to drop amp into 8 hopefully not into the dreaded COD , what would be an overall average strength of RMM2 ?

Could the record breaking MJO ( in phase 7 ) amplification be in any way linked to this *possible* SSW ? And if so could the *possible* SSW then have an impact on the further phases of the MJO mainly 8-1 ... long way of saying can they both be linked to each and correlate ?

So nearly no lag? Think 2/3 ssw events effect the uk ? Accurate ?

Something that really interest me this , didn’t lurk on here when the last major one occurred , I’m presuming the models will go into a meltdown just like the Strat ?

Could someone be so kind to tell me when the MJO forecasts on NOAA update daily ? And a rough uk time ?

Is the progression of the ECM in the latter frames just going to be blamed on model climatology bias or is there something else the model is picking up on ... out my pay grade that one !

Even at day 7 it’s far from the mean

Would that have less of a lag time to effect actual weather , think I read the rule of thumb was ‘give it two weeks’ but maybe that was just based on complete downwell ?

Is this a trop led split ? Upwell?

Is this an upwell split ? Trop led ?

Even more pronounced in my area @karlos1983

You do some great scouring of the tweeter land

Think I read somewhere that 2/3 effect the UK ? And apparently people in the US don’t get excited as it doesn’t effect CONUS much ?

Do you get any access to ecm Strat charts , could swear I seen a spilt showing on twitter today from the ecm but I can’t find it anywhere now , I know the GFS has been signaling this and also now Glosea but the ECM?

Just signed back up in preparation of tonight’s monumental , pivotal , crucial , edge of your seat ECMWF 12z output , tongue in cheek there, but I’m loving the Synoptics and various debate going on today ! Shows there’s interest on the horizon and not a westerly juggernaut !