Rayth
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Posts posted by Rayth
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If any cold fan had a nightmare last night, it will continue when you look at the 00z GFS run
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Does anyone have the link to the model output thread in the lead up to winter 2010? Been looking for nearly an hour now, would be very interesting/educational to see how things developed
Mods . Please move to an appropriate thread if needed, didn’t know where to put this initially
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6 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:
There will be nothing exciting this winter any cold showing in the charts will just keep being pushed back, first to late December then to mid Jan then early Feb and before we know it March will be here in no time, it will be the same old chesnut as far as model watching is concerned
interesting
Can you post the charts that show this?
Or
If this an act of clairvoyancy, provide the Euro numbers for Friday, as it has rolled over again
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43 minutes ago, Arctic Hare said:
It's a point, though. For a whole lot of people in the UK, their car will have aircon but their home will not. So I guess it's possible some people may just go for a drive Sun-Mon-Tue because in their car is the coolest spot available!
not at 2.08p a litre
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4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:
I’ve been saying this for days but keep getting lambasted for it. This is serious.
The circus, I mean the government are having a cobra meeting today , let’s see what comes from it
But our infrastructure just ain’t geared for such extremity so you’re quite right to have legitimate concern
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Small comfort of something better in the 12z , small , small
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17 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:
There was!!!!! a lot of ramping!!!!! though by the usual!!!!! posters!!!!!
My discovery of the ignore button has helped my enjoyment of the thread significantly.
At those time frames its legitimate to get exited , that will never ever change on here , what i find interesting is that its called all these names , the mad thread , the silly thread, yet every page is read by these people
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51 minutes ago, Alderc said:
Lol, are you sure? There’s thousands of posts as evidence ramping up cold weather when it was never in a reliable time frame. In fact it’s quite possibly the most excessive and continuous model ramping ever seen. I’m sure plenty of others would agree too.
Im sure , you are contradicting yourself , its called the model output thread , so if they see snow , they comment on it , there isn't a 'reliable time frame' thread , why don't you start one?
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49 minutes ago, Alderc said:
Lol if you find the Covid thread depressing at times just take a flip to the MAD thread this morning. The models have finally and completely removed anything even remotely cold. After weeks of absolutely ridiculous ramping and literally tens of thousands of posts on how we’d be buried neck deep in snow I think the penny is about to drop.
And here you go again with the sly digs in the bitter thread
nobody has remotely wrote anything about being buried and even if they had it would be commenting on output (which is the purpose of the thread) ,
I suggest you get back in your box unless you have something constructive to say ! And as for penny dropping , don’t try to suggest you knew what was coming , this was one of the most unpredictable model watching sagas for many a year
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What a difference a day makes , unbelievable
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4 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:
My claim was for Christmas day. The mean has NOT brought cold further south for Christmas day, in fact, even northern areas are looking iffy for the big day itself now.
I made no claims about boxing day onwards, but even then the far south looks iffy. But, please, keep living under your little rock
Yep
Boxing day is now the potential day for 'the north'
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Decent cold spell coming for NE England , mean been dropping the last 4 runs
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8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:
Not sure I get this forecast looking at the recent gfs runs
It’s on her site as current but it’s simply incorrect ……
Nothing is date stamped as far as I’m aware , it’s from Hannah Attards site which updates daily at 00:00
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The absolute brakes have been put on the zonal winds
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850’s but ..
the further north Aberdeen and Newcastle
the less rogue the ECM is
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Just now, Ali1977 said:
Out to day 10 is going to be exceptional - Can’t wait for the ENS at next GFS
18:48 and craving the pub run
love it
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1 minute ago, Updated_Weather said:
GFS control
That run is awesome
‘If’ one of the dets follows that run today, everyone will pass out in here
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2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:The Exeter update up to the New Year is an upgrade. No mention of mild and fronts only affecting the south/south west.
Yep
With the period after the 1st Jan mentioning easterly winds ... interesting update
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1 minute ago, Paul_1978 said:
Watch the ECM be a shocker!
Or it upgrades …
And in an hours time everyone commits the cardinal sin and tells everyone they know to get the sledge out and dust off the snowboard
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If there was ever! , ever a time for the european centre for medium-range weather forecasts to prove its the daddy then this is that time ....
This would be magical for the big day , although im supposed to be going to Kempton for the King George the day after .... the conundrum
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GEFS OP and Control having a wobble or onto something? Either way there are some winter pearlers developing in the envelope
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32 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:
It's changed ,with more emphasis on cold , but also on rain.
Yuk.
Might change again... isnt this the guy that writes these
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1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:
in truth the ECM is not mild,but its nowhere near as good or as cold as yesterday 12z!
I'm wondering if the models are smelling the colder option but the timing is wrong (too early), just a hunch
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3 hours ago, NorthEastSnow said:
Red warnings. Not often we get them.
Just a shame it’s not for snow!yep , hate the stuff , unless its a blizzard
Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Yeah @Ali1977 just flicking through and won’t be surprised if the 00z is outlier territory