[Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch]

3 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Me too - hate getting cold stuff in March when the sun just melts it all away. At least in December it’s dark at 4pm and the sun is weak!

The plot thickens 

 

 

[Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on]

Ecm having a taste of the GFS outlier moonshine at the end 

 

[Model tweets]

Clearly knows his sweets , but Christ is he cryptic ! 

[Model output discussion - late November]

3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

144 looks good to me,

Isn’t that the 120?

[Model output discussion - late November]

Bold to be predicting the first half of December  

 

[Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch]

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Edit, to feb's point above, it isn't within the range of the ECM on the Berlin site yet?

 

3 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

I do remember a while back a similar thing happening and Fergie saying that nothing was appearing on their model, and to my knowledge, it was correct.

They also could be suggesting it’s not seeing a ‘technical’ SSW but it may well be seeing a warming event ? Was a bit vague in that regard 

[Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch]

3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

So to the upcoming SSW, and I'm assuming that this is going to happen now.  

Love the confidence  , the Met Office weekly show on twitter today noted that their Glosea model isn’t seeing a SSW , only the American model’ is , interesting times 

[Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019]

3 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

C, is it necessary to repeat your previous post each time?

Please do C , sometimes I miss morning posts 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

4 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

Dammit. So the hunt continues.

Less so further north 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC is a corker!!

144

Not a million miles off yesterday’s super UKMO 12z either 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

3 minutes ago, Catacol said:

It's going to...…….. is it?

Thought I’d see it all until Catacol started frame by frame commentary tonight  

the force is awakening 

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

Just now, seabreeze86 said:

Don't panic everyone the CMA still going for it, seriously though this could go either way if the UKMO looked like the ECM they I'd be very pessimistic, massive 12zs later

Is this the Chinese model? It’s been steadfast 

@northwestsnow indeed , given the positive update overnight  

[Model tweets]

Where’s the model tweets thread grr? , but this is more or less saying the UKMO are favoriting a GFS run ?!?!? 

Sorry Jo too

 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

21 hours ago, Glacier Point said:

Touchdown.

GEFS mean AO values for 25th onwards around -2SD. CGEM +1 for the same time scale off 00z. Not sure what's going on there, but fair chance model is not picking up this downwell signal.

Well there’s a chance it now has ! And the 12z  today ran away with it out of all control  

if the ‘pub run’ (18z GFS) fancies similar then , it could reverse all the way to the brewery  

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

32 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

The cold end to ECM is just beyond the spread on tonight's ens mean peaks around -7

Always intrigued why you post ensembles 250 miles away from you , here’s ones a little nearer 

 

[Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch]

1 hour ago, Glacier Point said:

 

Hmmm, I remember watching the snow shower at school very well....

And is if by magic the 12z GFS given an 87’ ...I knew you were good , but not this good  

[Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch]

13 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

Based on where we're at...

Impacts look to be sustained and long duration - February into March

Oh noooo , hope we don’t have the same conversation as last year regarding the interruption of the ‘festival’ second week of March  

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC mean now has troughing into Europe by day 10..

Follows the mean for the south but milder for the north  

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Sorry, not because I don’t want to post Scotland, it’s because meteociel doesn’t got that far north Take it up with them lol   

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs.php?carte=1 

bookmark that you can show us Shetland  

[Model banter returns]

2 minutes ago, Easton Luna Boys said:

I don't think this place would be able to handle hourly updates. 4 times a day is bad enough as it is. 

 

A pub run every hour ! Gracious me  

pray for Netweathers Servers  

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

4 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

About as clear as their 30 day outlooks...possibly colder periods increase but possible mild interludes with no idea if they'll be any similarites to end of Feb 2018 the last SSW which to be honest is fair enough.

Their model is showing the strat in trouble for a while 

 

 

[The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19]

2 minutes ago, The BEAST From The East said:

I am liking the sound of that... 

THANKS for taking the time to write an in-depth post.. ??

Yes , once you get @chionomaniac on board it’s as good as having a clean sweep of the output on side !

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

This should keep the hunt ticking along 

 

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

14 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Needs to just push it to around the border between 7 and 8 for maximum effect, as you say though, lovely amplitude.

Hmmm Intruiging conversation on it 

 

 

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

Shouldn’t be too far off some GFS eye candy charts , given the GFS MJO forecast takes it nearly off the scale , it’s had a good day on the mulled wine !