[Autumn 2021 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

Well , as winter approaches , we are now at the 'absolutely bizzare' posting on the model thread stage 

[Model tweets]

[Model output discussion - closing in on Winter]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

True but it's alot colder air and less modified than the GFS

Are going to get a slicing high through northern Canada ala GFS i wonder 

[Model output discussion - the final third of Autumn]

‘

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

That is pretty significant I’d say, it could be a 2010 all over again - imagine that? 

The ‘statistical model’ is vague mind you ? But December was expected to be ‘westerly’ as a whole I gather , maybe game on ( if you’re after more blocking) 

[Model output discussion - the final third of Autumn]

Dare to dream 

 

[Model output discussion - the final third of Autumn]

Love the isobars on this 

Uk all the way to edge of the arctic 

[Autumn 2021 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

10 hours ago, Alderc said:

I don’t I’ve ever seen so many posts in the MAD thread. 200 in the last couple of hours. Can’t wait to pop in their in about 10days time when it’s still in double figures to ask everyone where the cold is

Hilarious 

[Model output discussion - the final third of Autumn]

3 hours ago, Ali1977 said:

This was posted from someone within the METO, I don’t get it. No sign of northern blocking  
I’ll go with the fact he’s a warm ramper to try amd quell paper reports such as the daily express

And even more sobering stuff 

 

 

[Model output discussion - the final third of Autumn]

17 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

nice to read some reality amongst the hype. 

 

Is commenting on output now hype? T&C's may need changing on this thread if so 

 

I have noticed coffin nails in this winter , before winter is even born

 

[Model output discussion - the final third of Autumn]

54 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

I'm thinking similar, the high pressure heading toward Greenland matches the phase 4 chart I posted yesterday think gfs just a bit quick with that setup I'm still looking to see if higher pressure can appear in Scandi like the other charts I posted suggest. And something worth remembering some members might not have been viewing the charts back in November 2010 but it was gfs and its ensembles that done similar to what we are seeing now picking up on that blocking before the other models, so not worth discounting altogether

Now that is a thread i would love to read , anyone got the model discussion bookmarked from winter 2010 by any chance ?  

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

2 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Really poor levels of consistency even at around 5/6 days out. The fact that the ECM/UKMO are similar is probably more a fluke than anything else because neither is similar to previous runs, which were miles apart from each other previously.

It does feels like a case of riding this uncertainty out and not placing any bets on any kind of solution at the moment.

 

Normally head to the ensembles for clarity , but the EPS and GEFS are flipping from one run to the next 

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

The Op ends the really cold easterly after about 4 days, but many of the ENS and control don't..

Day 10 Control 

A shift in ensemble suite 12z -00z

 

 

[Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?]

8 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

 and we got a displaced vortex, rather than a split,  which ended up with a lobe of vortex in the wrong position. 

A split in the middle to lower strat is forecast tomorrow , will be interesting to see how this now plays out with the models in the coming days 

[Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?]

3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

 

 it would be interesting to see some spaghetti from up North

 

As per request 

 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Into the new year]

900 times a day he mentions a west based -nao  

 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year]

2 minutes ago, Snow White said:

None of the models have shown real cold. I stand by that comment and note  that there will be no Ice days that in England this week. It’s a week of below average temps that will be marginal at best for snow. Until we get entrenched cold in Europe/Scandy it does not matter what Synoptics we get we will be feeding off scraps.

How can a week of below average temperature be described as ‘cool’ in winter ? That’s a contradiction in itself ? 
 

Curious anomaly on this forum , people with snow in the username seem to want anything but 

[Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year]

It was the night before Christmas and the strat was beginning to stir,

 

While the cold was incoming where is Steve Murr?

 

Will it or won’t it , a split or displacement,

 

Let’s hope it results in two foot on the pavement 

 

Catacol called it , Crewe said we couldn’t avoid it,

 

Let’s hope it doesn’t go down the damn toilet.

 

A very strange year , could end with a grin from ear to ear,

 

Let’s hope the GFS isn’t hammering the Beer.

 

The first week of Jan , Chino could be in his element 

 

The weather gods eying an historical development 

 

From Sussex short-waves , to marginal uppers,

 

Santa is downing his multitude of suppers 

 

We are all in the same game , no matter the username,

 

These model runs are so difficult to tame.

 

We wish for hot we wish for cold,

 

But the chase from year to year will never get old.

 

We salute the regular posters , too many to mention,

 

For giving us such fun , and 00z runs full of tension.

 

We welcome new members , in this strangest of December’s.

 

Spare a thought for the gone , many of us have at least one 

 

Onwards we go,

 

Snow Angels in Snow.

 

It’s time for me to go,

 

Let’s hope this post avoids the mods saying no!

 

Merry Christmas to everyone , have a safe festive period  and thanks to everyone for their input this year 

[Model output discussion - The run up to Christmas]

2 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Is it needed though? 

 

 

 

This is an intriguing question ....

 

But I also have one of my own , are we seeing these eye candy trop scenarios because the GFS is seeing a SSW ? 

I shall pass that onto Crewe and Scott , the more experienced and knowledgeable 

[Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas]

5 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Cold enough air on the west side of that low at the end for some proper snow I’d imagine...

And if the white stuff did fall

 

Blizzard fans rejoice 

 

 

[Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas]

Basically the 00z has finally had enough of being called the ‘downgrade run’ and has spat out a historical masterpiece ! 
 

Fully enjoyable run  

 

what happened out west certainly was the best this morning 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder spell ending, what's to follow?]

17 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

I think I see a Greenland block on the horizon

Could do with a Genoa  low at the same time 

[Model output discussion - Winter has arrived]

Does anyone know what happened to Bring Back 1962/63 ? 

[Model output discussion - Winter has arrived]

4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Yes, and after such a crap year, it would be amazing to set up a winter wonderland just in time for Christmas.

As BA would say, it's all within the envelope of what could develop over the next couple of weeks.

Not a bad perch to be sitting on , in only the second day of meteorological winter eh crewe  

[Model output discussion - Winter has arrived]

5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The end stages of the 0z GFS are synoptically stunning. Nothing marginal about those uppers heading towards us.

The dream.

Indeed , 

And when it theoretically should be rampant , the vortex is marmalized

 

 

[Model output discussion - Winter approaches]

2 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

Lovely charts I don’t think Steve murr as been sucked in yet he likes he’s Easterlys where is he..

The 1% battery life he has had on his phone the last two years has finally ran out