[Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter]

4 minutes ago, Frigid said:

Very 2010-esque charts right now. GFS and ECM ensembles look very good. Don't think it's been this low, this prolonged in December for a good while. 

.

ECM 00z

 

GFS 06z

 

Can you get archived ensemble charts like you can other model output?

[Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter]

Just now, Met4Cast said:

Perhaps more importantly as the model becomes operational later today, the GFS 16.3v also follows the det & ECM with some fairly big changes in days 4-5.

We now have cross model & cross-ensemble agreement.

and soon to be cross polar 

[Winter 2022-23 : Forecasts and Discussions]

Found another article this morning Jo 

this time from Ladbrokes 

Will we have a white Christmas this year? Latest snow odds for the UK

METRO.CO.UK

---

Is it going to snow in the UK on Christmas Day? Get Met Office updates and bookies' odds on White Christmas 2022 here.

@Jo Farrow

[Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter]

Another jab and hook towards a vortex on the ropes 

 

[Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter]

4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Normally the ECM would be the preferred model at that timeframe for the USA and Canada .

Historically US forecasters side with it over the GFS but the UKMO isn’t great either so there are some big differences between the big 3 which lowers confidence .

The early stages are important because you need the favourable upstream pattern to help drive the cold south over the UK.

I expect there will be a resolution today given the timeframes involved .

Hi Nick 

Im sure you were the man that used to give us the NOAA chat about where their thinking was regarding model output 

Do you still have access to that?

[Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter]

7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Suprise suprise ..

GEFS shifting towards EC solution - day 10 mean now virtually aligned .

 

 

This thread needs an assured hand from the 00z ECM not a GFS tantrum ‘garden paths’ and ‘crud uppers’ aren’t welcome in the next hour 

[Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter]

4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Just to note, the GEFS are very, very good by D10/11...a definite uptick in members that get a decent cold pool across the UK

Charts like this represent the biggest cluster by D11

The control run is in that cluster

Yep ! Would have bit your hand off if you’d have offered me this ensemble set in October for the first week of December Crewe !! 

No complaints here 

 

 

 

[Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter]

3 minutes ago, Noob said:

As a complete noob who is fascinated by the posts , but could someone please explain to me what the mean is , seems alot is put on this  

Basically the average of all the models runs 

[Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter]

1 minute ago, Skullzrulerz said:

What does this mean?

Monster -Nao signal 

[Winter 2022-23 : Forecasts and Discussions]

5 hours ago, chionomaniac said:

Out of interest, anyone taken the plunge and put a bet on a white Christmas? Percentages wise this may be the year to do it. Risk reward and all of that. If I was going to then I would go for eastern coasts. Depends on the odds though. If anywhere gives odds greater than 4-1 then I would be inclined….

William Hill the only firm I can find a live market on it , was hoping my location would be on (Newcastle) but no avail  

 

[Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter]

This is the last thing we need in this saga 

A worse GFS  

 

 

[Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Impressive, a very neg territory for the NAO bring forecast.

Christ , that’s on its way to the Mariana Trench

[Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter]

1 minute ago, IDO said:

The para shows the block further east, and the battle between heights which will act as a delay and not a good medium term solution:

I wonder if we will be in the position of a mediocre medium term outlook - better long term and vice versa  

[Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter]

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

Yep. Was a nagging concern to me yesterday and a definite trend today and needs to stopped starting with 06z  @jules216 you clearly know your onions please keep posting and I look forward to ramp soon.

Of course it’s got to verify first before the back slapping and handing out medals to themselves occurs , models are changing frequently, what was shown yesterday has changed today but can also revert back 

[Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter]

14 minutes ago, Dave Kightley said:

I would say we need the pattern further south on GFS .. to the point there really isn't a cold spell for south on that run as the battleground of SW and E is to far N.. to the point it could avoid give northern blocking a cold air mass.. such a lemon run for the south really

What I do find interesting is the appetite for blocking to keep reinvigorating in some form , so at least there’s a signal there, it’s been noted on here that the real fireworks ( if they are to happen) will take a few bites of the cherry before the pattern is set in 

Then we have the possibility of what catacol mentioned, a complete drop of the signal then grasped again, it’s all intriguing and way more interesting than a rampant PV

[Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter]

15 minutes ago, Dave Kightley said:

UKMO very good... GFS better then 18z not but not great upto 200 with less cold air pumped up from the South west.. zzz so not really a cold spell in South to this point.. UKMO very much better run

GFS turning into a nightmare.. pass on it.. really poor run loses heights... Leave in the south... Won't be seeing a cold spell on that run .

 

Yep , but the para is better for Greenland blocking but the HP from rising around Italy blocks the cold feed

All up for grabs in the extended 

 

 

[Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter]

Very easy on this eye is this 

 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn]

Well I’d take this ensemble set for the start of any December 

 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn]

1 minute ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Let's just hope you're very wrong then. 

I don't think anyone would disagree that the projected uppers are not spectacular, but the pattern with such a strong positive heights anomaly is what people are getting excited about. We usual start December mild and wet with an angry PV over Greenland...... just nice to see something a little different showing. 

I don't think I've ever seen you be positive about a colder scenario - always in the I told you so brigade. 

Indeed , not really sure I have seen much ‘hype’ iv seen people posting what the models are showing ? Which is the whole point of this thread, it’s a shame certain users only post for self gratification and self back patting,

 

anyway as crewe has been posting for days, very interesting model output at the moment 

 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn]

2 hours ago, Johnp said:

And I always argue against this. Doing this means the run you are looking at is 24hrs out of date. A lot can change in that time!

That way you will become more focussed on micro changes rather than macro, maybe it's just down to personal preference but i tend to want to see the bigger picture 

[Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn]

15 minutes ago, Mark Smithy said:

 

However, I do wonder whether anything is really gained by the GFS having runs every 6 hours rather 12. .

Reason I followed @johnholmes advice a while back and picked one run to follow either 12z or 00z for me, then dissect the nuances from there , dissecting every 6 hours doesn’t give you the changes/progression in pattern for me 

[Winter 2022-23 : Forecasts and Discussions]

I think most cold weather lovers would take a 09/10 ‘’lite’ given half a chance !!!

 

thanks for sharing @Kirkcaldy Weather , intriguing blog 

 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Big EC coming up..

Ukmo 168

GFS 168 

Huge difference,I can see where Exeter are getting their idea of the Atlantic getting back in after seeing ukmo..

The good news is GEM doesn't back ukmo..

 

We both know how fickle the Exeter wording can be but maybe signs within their halls that something is stirring or maybe not….

 

think someone posted this last night too

 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn]

7 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Yep, that's my point. this slow build is setting the foundations for mid December. It's entirely possible we end up in a severe freeze up. These are the best charts for POTENTIAL as we go into December for approximately a decade.

And right when you want it , approaching winter solstice , shortest days…. Tantalizing 

[Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn]

3 minutes ago, Rayth said:

Yeah @Ali1977 just flicking through and won’t be surprised if the 00z is outlier territory 

Yep , and also a bit of a cold cluster maintaining now, let’s hope the op had a wobble