[Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond]

16 minutes ago, jules216 said:

Where did Masiello pull out a theory of Scandi high in extended? All I see is a gallery of very mild Europe well in to 10-15d.

Id love you to go head to head with that guy ! 

You and your trustworthy analogues and him and his vast knowledge 

 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond]

GFS 06z hanging around with its mates until the big day then hammers the sherry , off on it own session 

 

[Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks]

Saturday 24 Dec - Monday 2 Jan

Confidence is unusually low for the Christmas weekend; a north/south divide with cold air, wintry showers and increased risk of more significant snow in the north, and milder conditions with rain and showers in the south, is likely, but where the boundary will be is very uncertain. Eventually, as we head towards the New Year, the colder conditions are more likely to come to dominate, with wintry showers in the north and potential for a more settled spell to develop. This would bring below average temperatures, potential for areas of freezing fog with widespread overnight frosts, and very low temperatures given any snow cover. Towards the end of the period, there are signs of a trend towards more changeable weather, with an upturn in temperatures.

Updated: 14:00 (UTC) on Mon 19 Dec 2022

 

Wasn't really expecting this kind of wording to be honest from the METO , could be fun and games to come with some OP runs 

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

1 hour ago, Mucka said:

GFS still going for the cyclogenetic positive tilt bomb in FI

ECM also has that low but not as OTT

UKMO is much different and looks like it could build a nice block locking in any N/NE flow.

You should copy right ‘the cyclogenetic positive tilt bomb’ before Star Wars steal it 

 

brilliant  

[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

Just now, Battleground Snow said:

Don't suppose you know if the ensembles were "upgraded" along side the OP?

Because when the OP was the para it seemed to throw out quite a different run to the old OP

Big Joe Bastardi ripped the GFS a new one on his Saturday summery yesterday citing how the tropics along the pacific are wholly wrong, therefore the GFS is a mess from the very start of every run , could be right , could be wrong but compared to the ECM and GEM the region is very very different in his analysis 

 

 

 

 

[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

The state of the PV , looks like someone’s threw a grenade in it 

 

[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

Blimy there’s a lot going on our vicinity here , where do you start 

 

[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

Well the Americans are getting excited , shame it’s behind a paywall , ‘an unusual climate phenomenon’  

 

 

[Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter]

1 minute ago, Day 10 said:

The cold pendulum swinging back towards us once again.

Momentum you mean  

[Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter]

Just now, Eagle Eye said:

My grandparents live in Buxton as well, I think they pull out a giant snow magnet there for when we go up because it always seems to be snowing whenever we go up there in the Winter. So you can probably guarantee more snow for Buxten beyond this setup if my family goes up there sometime this Winter .

Already met office warnings out for Northern Scotland for Wednesday , 4-10cm in brisk northerly winds, oh its getting very tantalizing 

[Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter]

When two stalagmites start interfering with the upper air temperature here , for Christ sake GFS 

 

[Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter]

Just now, frosty ground said:

going for a classic FI Easterly 

The PV is taking another kicking  too 

[Winter 2022-23 : Forecasts and Discussions]

I’m half nervous about asking this question but does anyone know what happened to Bringback1962/63 ? Was a lovely guy and taught me quite a bit over PM , was just thinking about what he’d make of this current output  

He hasn’t been on the American site 33andrain for two years either  

[Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter]

My eyes are drawing east , is another scandi high in its infancy 

[Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter]

2 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Boy we want that low to go under but it looks like it had our name on it,, big ukm 144 coming up

That’s the 00z 

 

the 12z is loaded  

 

[Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter]

2 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Gulp. Holy Grail. SSW with Greenland/Scandy heights in place from a dominant tropospheric pattern. The mind boggles as to what might happen next right in the heart of winter….

I’m off to lie down…

So I read that a SSW usually has a 2/3 chance of turning the UK cold, knowing our luck it will deck the cards in line for the US and ruin our blocking and I’m a glass half full kinda guy 

1 minute ago, January Snowstorm said:

For those experienced on here we have John Holmes, Chino and Catacal in agreement of a long cold spell. You don't see that every year and gives me huge confidence ahead of the 12s

Yep and those wise owls will also reiterate constantly that nothing is ever guaranteed, meteorologically speaking  

[Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter]

If this Arctic profile persists, surely the strat is on the ropes , behind on the scorecards and needing a knockout in the later rounds ? 

 

[Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter]

9 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

The positivity meter will be determined if Jules is the latest poster when I log on 

This is actually a very accurate measuring tool  

A skill gauge that all NWP output can dream of 

[Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter]

1 minute ago, 38.7°C said:

CFS anomalies has been showing the cold spell is ending just in time for Christmas with mild air coming in from the Azores. Not sure where people are getting the idea that its going to be "December 2010" all over again.

You lost me at ‘CFS’ 

[Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter]

1 minute ago, s4lancia said:

Simply stunning short - medium term ens for the balmy south coast in December

 

I see you @s4lancia

And I raise you 

 

[Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

We're seeing a change of direction in the mid-longer term here...one where the HP doesn't completely retrogress but slips back towards Scandi instead.

I'm telling you now, a surface HP forming there could prolong this spell to Christmas, potentially getting more severe. Both the GEM and GFS are attempting to re-amplify towards the E coast of USA/Canada at the same time as pressure rising again across Scandi. They're attempting the holy grail...

Don’t ! Dont ! I seen this on a select few of EPS and GEFS runs and was hoping an op wouldn’t jinx it! I’m going to digress a touch and give you a pat , you’ve been calling a cold December since the back end of September , so Kudos if this all transpires 

 

[Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter]

Just now, CreweCold said:

That highlights how, with a cold and dense pool of air, the Atlantic jet would need to be a whole lot stronger than that to dislodge it. 

Speaking of which , how is the PV doing at the moment ? You used a great analogy the other day about a spinning wheel 

[Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter]

Best set of ensembles since this saga began 

 

[Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter]

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

That suggests they are going with this mornings ECM?

Well, their wording can be as fickle as inter model runs so it's best not to place any bets on those paragraphs 

[Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter]

And the ECM takes a machete to the vortex