[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2019 onwards]

Definitely picking up now here in the Surrey Hills....a low level howl with some short pitched interludes.....

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2019 onwards]

My wife has it in her head  that we need to go shopping at Bluewater tomorrow, a good hour’s drive on the best of days from the Surrey Hills ....I keep saying that given the Amber warning, the forecasts  etc that it rally isn’t a good idea....I’ll leave any further injection into the conversation until the morning

 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2019 onwards]

1 hour ago, TomSE12 said:

Morning all,

Was up very early, to have Breakfast with "Septic", before she set off at 6.15 for her early Morning shift. 

Had a look at the 00z Model Runs and have revised the Betting Odds for the Entrant to correctly predict the first Date of Settling Snow, in the S.E.Region.

I've based my revised Betting Odds, on the Model output up to about the 20th February. Further out, I 've incorporated some Climatology into my thinking. This is based on there being more chance of settling Snow during late February, than there is in early March.

Still think sooner or later (probably later), we will see some settling Snow in the S.E.Region.

These Betting Odds are only meant to be a rough guide and my own interpretation, of the Forecast Model Runs. 

My Percentages are probably out.

The Betting may well be too Over-Round (too mean), or too Under-Round (too generous). But I couldn't be "asked", to work it all out, precisely.

Here are those Odds below, in Betting order:

                                        NETWEATHER S.E.REGION SETTLING SNOW CUP  

                                                   BETTING ODDS FOR WINNING PREDICTION 

                                                                        (OUTRIGHT WINNER)

                         ENTRANT         PREDICTION DATE     ODDS(26th Jan)     REVISED ODDS(7th FEB)

                     Bluebell                          23rd FEB                   10/1                                   10/1

                     Snow Queen One          24th FEB                   10/1                                   10/1

                     Snowray                        22nd FEB                   10/1                                   10/1

                     Timbo                             10th FEB                   10/1                                   10/1

                     Lauren                           20th FEB                    10/1                                  16/1

                     Daniel                            15th FEB                    10/1                                   20/1

                     Lottiekent                      16th FEB                    10/1                                   20/1

                     Septic Peg (Guest)       15th FEB                    10/1                                   20/1

                     Stainesbloke                 19th FEB                    10/1                                   20/1

                     Steve Murr                     14th FEB                   10/1                                   20/1

                     Team Squirrel                19th FEB                   10/1                                   20/1

                     TomSE12                        14th FEB                   10/1                                   20/1

                     Darkcloud                       28th FEB                  14/1                                   25/1                     

                     Donna Thw                     27th FEB                  14/1                                   25/1

                     Lassie23                         29th FEB                  14/1                                   25/1

                     Pinball Wizard                29th FEB                  14/1                                  25/1

                     Senlac Jack                    26th FEB                  14/1                                  25/1

                     Snowrye                          1st  MAR                  50/1                                  28/1

                     Froze Were The Days     9th  MAR                100/1                                 66/1

                     Claret047                        23rd MAR                250/1                               200/1

                     John Stevens                29th  MAR                250/1                               200/1

                     Mark Wheeler                22nd MAR                250/1                               200/1

                     Bazza118                       10th   APR                500/1                               500/1

                     General Custer              29th  NOV              1000/1                             1000/1

                                              ALSO RAN

                     Katrine Basso                31st  JAN                 50/1     (ELIMINATED).

                                                             BLUE = North Thames Group.

                                                             RED   = South Thames Group.

I don't think you'll be on your own for too long, Katrine.

There are quite a few of us (inc. Yours Truly), "staring down the barrel", of an early exit!!

Still think TIMBO has a "squeak" of being correct.

Once we get into that colder PM flow, following Storm Ciara's visit, some Showers could well be driven into the S.E.Region. It's not inconceivable that they could give the slightest dusting of Snow, over the highest Hills of our Region, e.g. The Chilterns or Downs.

Just want to Post up snowray's criteria, for the winning Entry:

QUOTE: snowray (22nd Jan)

 "When will it snow next and settle in our SE region? Even a dusting counts but not sleet or hail, must be snow."

Right, I now need to go and lie down, in a darkened room!! 

Regards,

Tom.   

Afternoon @TomSE12....thank you for updating the “Odds”...I noticed that your “runners and riders’ are based on your original list....my now date is the 29th Feb, not March, which you had changed.....sorry to cause you more hassles!! Not sure if the list above had any other mis-types.......

Enjoy the rest fo the day....beautifullly sunny up in the Surrey Hills today....I suspect very different to what we will see up here in the comings days!!

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2019 onwards]

1 hour ago, TomSE12 said:

Just want to make a few comments, re. the NETWEATHER S.E.REGION SETTLING SNOW CUP.

We are now getting to the stage where more and more Member's predictions are appearing on the Radar of Forecast Models, that go out into "la la land".

Back to the here and now, as expected Ms Basso looks like being the first casualty. Sadly Katrine, faces her own KEXIT Day. It would take on act of God, to save her now, after her bold prediction of "Settling Snow", on the 31st Jan.

My red "settling" pen, is getting twitchy. I learned from bitter experience not to "knock out" (put a line through) Wagers, before the whistle has blown or the finishing line has been crossed, in Sport.

I was working for a Credit Bookmakers in May 1979, and settling (calculating) Bets on the 1979 F.A.Cup Final, between Arsenal and Manchester United. Arsenal were leading 2-0 with 5 minutes to go, when United scored. So, those Correct Score ,had to be resettled.

In the 88th minute, United equalised and there was a lot of frantic "rubbing out", with a Draw now looking certain and the Match, heading for Extra Time. With the Referee about to blow his whistle for Full Time, Arsenal scored a late Winner, to make it 3-2.

A salient lesson was learned about "Settling", being, to never jump the gun regarding Sports Results.

But it would take an escape of Harry Houdini proportions, to pull this one "out of the fire", for Katrine.

Next up, in 10 Days time, will be Timbo. The GFS Day 10 (t240), is not without interest and if GFS are on the ball, that very cold air, could push further South. 

Next up, will be TomSE12 and Steve Murr, and not looking quite as interesting for us, at Day 14 (t336).

We'd need quite a bit of tweaking from there, to experience some white confetti Gold, on Valentine's Day.

I'll comment on how the Synoptics are looking re. the chance of Snow, for our next contenders, Septic Peg (15th), and Lottiekent (16th), in the Morning.

It's mine and Septic's 10th Wedding Anniversary, on the 15th. But some of Nature's own confetti, just like the few Snow Grains we experienced on our "Big Day", looking unlikely at the moment!

More Runs needed, and I'll comment on some of those in the Morning.

Regards,

Tom.   

Thank you @TomSE12 for the update... far more entertaining than watching either the MAD thread or Stav on the BBC this evening....

The weather here in the Surrey Hills is very murky...Unfortunately a bit like watching the mood on all the main tv channels this evening...

As Roy Waller ( an old radio BBC Radio Norwich DJ world probably have said) ..Brexit and the lack of snow..,,”it ain’t funny, but you gotta laugh “

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2019 onwards]

20 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

Great photos there John, of the "Thames Streamer" event of February 2009. 

It was a very strange behaving "Streamer", as areas such as Dorking received more Snow than further East.

My work location of Croydon even "out-snowed", my home location of near Bromley, Kent.. Normally, unheard of in Thames "Snow Streamer" events.

Some Members may have read Paul Sherman's superb account and the dynamics that caused this "Thames Streamer", to behave differently.

Regards,

Tom.   

I remember it well Tom....the school where I still teach, up in the Surrey Hills, was deluged! We had 4-5ft icicles hanging from some of the buildings in the following days!

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2019 onwards]

Don’t think this will be happening again in 2 days time.....pics courtesy of this yesterday’s Dorking Ad

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2019 onwards]

8 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

Hi JS, I'll get those entered but the Stakes are either £5 WIN or £2.50 EACH WAY.

Many thanks.

Hi claret047,

I'll change your "Virtual" Wager to - £2.50 EACH WAY @ 80/1 claret049 (23rd Mar).

Regards,

Tom.     

 

 

Thanks Tom, my blunder!!! Meant e/w.... being very dim tonight!!

 John 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2019 onwards]

Hi @TomSE12 here’s my wagers. Have had great fun taking part! 
SE Snow Settling Cup

CATEGORY 1 - OUTRIGHT WINNER -            Senlac Jack £2.50 win    

CATEGORY 2 - NORTH THAMES WINNER -  TEAM SQUIRREL £2.50 win

CATEGORY 3 - SOUTH THAMES WINNER -   Senlac Jack £2.50 e/w

I’ll take “Virtual prize 1” should I be so lucky!

Best

JS

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2019 onwards]

On 26/01/2020 at 12:42, TomSE12 said:

Just wanted to Post these Odds up first. The list below and is in Odds and Alphabetical, order. As you can see, it's a very open event, with 12 Co-Favourites, all at 10/1. I've made the Favourites, those predictions between mid to late February. Although we've had some notable Snowfalls in March, the Sun is getting stronger and the Days lengthening, especially towards late Feb/early March. There's no hint from the Forecast Models of anything Wintry soon and even talk on the Stratosphere Thread of an SSW, seems to be muted this Morning.

                        NETWEATHER S.E.REGION SETTLING SNOW CUP  

                                BETTING ODDS FOR WINNING PREDICTION 

CATEGORY 1                                 OUTRIGHT WINNER

                     ENTRANT                            DATE                             ODDS

                     Bluebell                             23rd FEB                           10/1

                     Daniel                                15th FEB                           10/1

                     Lauren                               20th FEB                           10/1

                     Lottiekent                         16th FEB                            10/1

                     Septic Peg (Guest)          15th FEB                            10/1

                     Snow Queen One             24th FEB                           10/1

                     Snowray                           22nd FEB                           10/1

                     Stainesbloke                    19th FEB                            10/1

                     Steve Murr                        14th FEB                            10/1

                     Team Squirrel                   19th FEB                           10/1

                     Timbo                                10th FEB                           10/1

                     TomSE12                          14th FEB                           10/1

                     Darkcloud                         28th FEB                           14/1                     

                     Donna Thw                       27th FEB                           14/1

                     Lassie23                            29th FEB                          14/1

                     Pinball Wizard                  29th FEB                           14/1

                     Senlac Jack                       26th FEB                          14/1

                     Katrine Basso                  31st  JAN                           50/1

                     Snowrye                           1st    FEB                           50/1

                     Froze Were The Days      9th   MAR                         100/1

                     Claret049                           23rd MAR                        250/1

                     John Stevens                    29th MAR                        250/1

                     Mark Wheeler                    22nd  MR                        250/1

                     Bazza118                           10th    AP                        500/1

                     General Custer                 29th    NV                      1000/1 

                                  ALL QUOTED PLACE TERMS: 1/4 0DDS.       

In a short while, I will Post up my Betting Odds by Region.

Category 2 will feature Members in the Thames North Group. (Members who are located, North of the Thames).

Category 3  will feature Members in the Thames South Group. (Members who are located, South of the Thames).

Regards,

Tom.               

         

                                  

                       

Hello Tom, sorry to throw your odds out....just checked back to make sure it wasn’t my blunder....I had said 29th Feb....fortunately I’ll hopefully be seeing falling and lying snow on the 29th March as well as I’m off to St Moritz on our school skiing holiday...

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2019 onwards]

1 hour ago, TomSE12 said:

Hi Katrine,

Thank you, for confirming that Date with me. But, tbh, I think you're "staring down the barrel" a bit, with that Date.

Below, are the 12z ECM and GFS "take" on the situation, on your predicted Date (t168), and very similar they are too:

                    ECM 31st Jan                                                         GFS 31st Jan

               

But there's still time for the Synoptics, to change. A Week is a long time, in Meteorology!!

Katrine's is the first prediction to appear on Forecast Model's Radar.

TIMBO is up next with 10th Feb.

I will Post up a couple of t168 Charts, as we count down to each Entrant's predicted Date.

Don't think I've got enough time to put together some Betting Odds, Tonight. I need to get to bed, soon after 9.

"Septic Peg" (Wife,Colette), has a 12 Hour shift in a Chislehurst Care Home, Tomorrow. I will be getting up with her at 5.15 AM, in the Morning. We've had a much calmer Day, Today, after Yesterday's problems and I really don't want to "rock the boat", by disturbing her sleep.

So, instead I will go and update my Horse Racing Competition, over on the Lounge Thread. 

This will give me more time Tomorrow, to devote to the "Settling Snow" Competition.

Regards,

Tom.      

 

40 minutes ago, snowray said:

Yes even a snow shower if it settles if its confirmed, there will be people around our region who will be posting snow reports and pics as usual if and when we get some snowfall.

Thank you @snowray for the late entry and @TomSE12 for the forecasts!! It brings a little excitement to the otherwise fruitless search for snow this winter

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2019 onwards]

22 hours ago, snowray said:

Yes I remember it well Tom, just heavy sleet here but parts North London got several inches of snow, quite remarkable.

Nice one, your entry number 5. Good luck.

Am I too late to enter? 29th Feb....

 sorry have been at work al day and have only just sat down to have a little look at what’s been going on!!

[Snow & Ice coverage in the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019/20]

4 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Whilst looking at the data -

Todays US NIC shows much the same with the snow cover expanding in Asia (but not yet into Europe).

 

Sea Ice is moving along with the same trends as per the last few days. 

Large increases in Barents (again), and Baffin and the SOO, but reductions in Bering.

MIA

@Midlands Ice Age love reading your posts and have been especially interested in the Ozone levels you have been investigating. Was wondering what the current situation is? Is there still a pool developing over Siberia as I think you mentioned over the festive period (if I remember correctly)?

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2019 onwards]

Just had 30 minute power cut here in the Surrey Hills.... very windy, even the sustained wind speed, let alone the gusts.

10yr old daughter says “this is a bit scary daddy”... reply...”this is nothing I lived through the Great Storm of ‘87”.... rolled eyeballs in response

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2019 onwards]

13 hours ago, snowray said:

Found a couple of pics that might be of interest.

Snow on Erith Pier.

 

These are pictures of the Thames frozen over at Erith back in 1895, in the day's when we had proper winters.

They are great, thank you! 

[Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!]

32 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Gfs has the decency to keep m4 and m5 clear

And also the A25

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2019 onwards]

On 09/01/2020 at 18:46, snowray said:

Well done matty, thanks for that. 

A great set of photos, and I have to say, as an historian, I spent some time looking into the history of the Erith pier of the back of these.... it has a very interesting history... Would be great to see what @TomSE12 has to say about these photos.... I’m sure that he’d have a great winter story  to add to them....

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2019 onwards]

Mmmm... John Hammond on the SE news almost wanted to hint that something this evening “no significant cold... just yet”.... at least it’s more tantalising than Darren “at least it’ll be mild” Bett!!

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2019 onwards]

So.... a Christmas discussion with the children today during our sejourn in Cornwall.... all revolves around Father Christmas..... if you don’t believe in the tooth fairy or the sandman or the Easter Bunny or Jack Frost and finally your faith in Father Christmas goes that’s not only meaning the end of presents from the big man but also means that winter will never be cold again.......

OK so which member of the MOD thread has stopped believing and stuffed us all over 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2019 onwards]

Enjoying a Christmas Break in North Cornwall this week. A visit to Tintagel Castle today was fantastic. A whole host of weather.... from torrential rain to beautiful sunshine... with everything in between. A lovely respite from endless rain and grey skies

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2019 onwards]

9 hours ago, Blessed Weather said:

Robbed! Looking at the radar earlier and with a temp of 4C I thought I might see a wet snowflake in due course. But - poof - the green echo disappeared just before reaching me. Lol.

10.35  11.30 

That green point was so sudden.... sat eating breakfast at The Pheasant in Buckland on the A25..., beautiful sunshine then in about 1mn ferocious winds and squally rain..., probably something sleety but the breakfast was too good to ignite I’m afraid

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2019 onwards]

Clearly weather underground is on to something for next week here in Surrey

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2019 onwards]

Lovely crisp clear day in the Surrey Hills today. Not as chilly as I was expecting it to be whilst spending three hours being shot at by Nerf gun’s in the stocks at the school Christmas fair. Beautiful sunset at Newlands Corner on the North Downs this evening.

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2019 onwards]

We had strong gusting winds into 2pm, then squally showers here in the surrey hills. It had all passed by 6pm... 

[Worldwide Mountain & Snow Sports Discussion 2019/20]

Heading off to St Moritz with Club Med on the 29th March. Leading my school trip with 50 others. Last (This) year at the same time Serre Chevalier was perfect for the time of year, height etc. So St Moritz should given its heights be amazing..... can’t wait

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2019 onwards]

Very stormy here in the surrey hills, with about 30min off torrential rain. Cracking rumbles of thunder, and looks like some more to come before the end of the evening. Living at the top of a hill has its advantages, but I do worry about friends and family lower down!