Supacell

Well that has to be up there with the best lightning storms I have witnessed. Currently sat near Kettering having a rest. Raining steadily with occasional flashes and thunder. Will now head back to the M1 and follow the storms back closer to home. This is what storms should be like!

Left work early and chasing around Bedford. OMFG!!! Bolt frenzy!!!

A CB is an abbreviation for cumulonimbus (thunder cloud).

Lifting caused by the hills, called orographic lifting.

Cells starting to develop in East Wales now along the line of the trough, it is this that I would expect to start spreading gradually into the Midlands this afternoon.

Yes, looks like it just south of Aylesbury.

It's very hazy overhead here. My plan now is to head down the M1 after work and aim to get storms that are expected in the SE Midlands towards Milton Keynes area. Of course, my plan could change by that time dependent on what is happening by that time.

Very rapid storm development across Scotland near to Braemar and also Lanark. Nothing to storm in around half an hour. Signs of things to come further south this afternoon I hope.

Exactly that in higher CAPE environments.

Look for decaying storms as the downdrafts from them could promote an environment for new cells to form. This has happened the last few days where a storm builds, decays and then seems to rebuild somewhere nearby.

It is too hard to pick a definite time but 8-9pm would be a good guess. If you are on this forum you will know if there are storms around as I am sure people will be reporting on it. You can also use one of the Netweather lightning detectors. As has been said any storms will be isolated. Let's hope they leave you alone but move over my house (or my car) instead

Well we are off to a flying start this morning around here with crystal clear blue skies and it feels humid. It does look like numerous areas of thunderstorms should develop today with risk initially being near to high ground of N England, Scotland and Wales. The storms then appear to congregate along an eastwards moving trough this evening and overnight. Most of the models break out storms over the Welsh Borders, N Pennines, Southern Uplands and generally across Scotland and N.I by early afternoon and transfer them eastwards. This evening the storms appear to congregate around the S and E Midlands and these last into the night time hours. CAPE values are impressive today, well over 1000j/kg but there is very little wind shear once more. Triggering will once again be from convergence zones and orographic lifting which is why most storms will initially erupt over higher ground. Additionally a trough is moving eastwards across England. Although, like previous days, storms will struggle to organise they will still be intense when they do form. They could contain frequent lightning, hail up to 1.5cm in diameter and gusty winds. Perhaps more of a concern though is that with PWAT values over 30mm and slow storm motion there is the risk of localised flash flooding, I think this will be the talking point later. I am at work until around 5:30pm but it is likely I will then be chasing around my local area should things pan out as planned

I am really quite hopeful about tomorrow. Stuck at work until 5:30pm but it looks like things may go on into the evening hours and not a million miles away from here either. Could I be on the verge of my first night time storm of the season?

Tomorrow late afternoon/evening looks good for the Midlands and maybe even here as the night draws in. However, I will likely be somewhere else.

MLCAPE is not looking too shabby

Indeed I did Chased the cell that was over Leigh all the way to Southport. I saw one flash but didn't hear the thunder as I was in the car under an absolute deluge of rain. Driving around Ainsdale and Birkdale there was lots of flooding as the cell was moving very slowly and dumping a hell of a lot of rain. I am surprised there was not more lightning as the rain was torrential.

Drove through that heavy downpour near to Leigh. Lots of big convective raindrops but that's it, not a single spark. My final hope is for these showers to erupt into thunderstorms as they move west towards the coast.

Now not far from Leigh with dark skies to my east. They look more threatening than the light rain that is coming out of it according to the radar. It's 26c and feels rather sweaty.

Currently sat just outside Knutsford and some nice cu to my north. I now have the M6 and M56 on my doorstep. Manchester airport taf showing thunderstorms this afternoon so fingers crossed.

Looks like an equal risk between NW England and CS England. Due to the fact that Manchester/Lancashire is half the distance of CS England for me I am going to head NW. I may be making a poor choice but I just don't feel there is enough of a risk to warrant a 350 mile round trip today. A 180 mile round trip is a bit easier to stomach if nothing happens. Add to this that NW England has been in sunshine since daybreak and has temperatures now up to 24c with dew points of 15c along with a strong convergence zone between the Lancashire coastline and the Pennines. Those further south are still at risk, but it will be later on. Good luck all. A nice day for a drive through the Peak District too, so I win whatever

Very good point Looks like the cloud is melting away nicely... signs of brightness even here now. Cloud having a huge effect on temperatures too, it is already approaching 20c in the northwest and south but stuck at 12c here. I won't be hanging around here though if I do decide chase (50/50 currently).

Using the Met Office rainfall prediction tool I would say I should head up to NW England for the afternoon period and then jump on a helicopter to get back to CS England for the evening... I just wish I had one

This mornings runs are on the whole similar to last night. It is a case of respectable CAPE across southern and western areas, no shear to speak of at all, a cap which can be broke providing we get enough surface heating and numerous convergence zones. Put all this together and the risk of storms is going to be where those convergence zones exist and dependant on the sun coming out. Cloud is still quite extensive this morning, hopefully it can burn off. If it does it will be the first time around here that the sun has been out for any length of time since over a week ago! Convergence zones are near to southern and western areas where sea breezes collide with each other or against the light ENE wind flow. CAPE is highest towards the south and southwest. GFS still showing some very reasonable CAPE values by late afternoon/evening and NMM is even higher. The GFS break out showers across Cumbria and west Wales shortly after midday as a result of surface heating and convergence zones. Further showers and storms look to break out just inland from western and southern coasts all the way from W Scotland to the S Wales and then from Somerset across to SW London. These rumble on into the first part of the night. Worryingly, the NMM does not break out much at all away from the NW and far west of Wales. Although it does show something later evening, not much though considering the amount of CAPE being forecast. Euro4 unfortunately even worse if it is storms you are after with very little precipitation away from W Scotland and the odd spot over Cumbria. The Met Office do show showers and storms developing in similar areas to the GFS so some hope there. Overall I am not as confident as I want to be. I do think somebody will see a storm today, though they will be isolated and the vast majority of places will stay dry. Any storms that do develop today will be fairly short lived but would likely contain torrential rainfall (PWAT values up at 25-28mm). With CAPE values as high as being forecast any storms that develop could also contain hail and be briefly quite active with frequent lightning. I am going to sit tight for a few hours and watch as to whether there are any areas within the risk zones mentioned above whereby the sun comes out and temperatures start to rise. This could be a good precursor to the likelihood of a storm. EDIT: Looks from the satellite pictures that NW England, far W Midlands and N Wales are already seeing the sunshine

This does look like a good possibility checking out the latest precipitation forecasts, although I realise they are subject to change and will probably look different in the morning.

Thanks @weather09. Agreed, I may just have to be tired for work the next day. It's a small price to pay for seeing something half decent. Of course I do not have to set off early with storms not expected to get going until late afternoon time and so will check on the latest obs in the morning. I may end up chasing around a very similar area to where I did last week. An E'ly flow favors western areas and, as you say, even better where that light E'ly meets sea breezes from the west. My normal hunting grounds of Lincolnshire are not getting much attention from me this year yet