Supacell

Yes it is starting to look better through the Channel. I wouldn't be surprised if people around Newhaven aren't hearing thunder now. Rapid development around Portsmouth too, although no sferics here as yet.

Whoops, making them public may help! Try again now they should all be available.

Thank you. Yes, admittedly I will be radar watching later today as there is always that chance something could happen and would be very disappointed in myself if I missed it

Any risk today is low - as pointed out in the Convective Weather forecast posted earlier. If we were to be picky then the SE has a slightly higher chance than the SW but in the grand scheme of things the chance is still low. I live in the Midlands and so not the SE or the SW and I would love the chance to chase today. I could in theory drive the same distance to the SW or the SE but I won't be as I would have a very high (around 95%) of seeing nothing whichever direction I took myself. Tomorrow poses better chances for more widespread thunderstorms, although I am at work. However, reasons to be positive are that the GFS charts are littered with potential during the next two weeks (FI in know), some people have already had a storm this year and it is only April 3rd. Last year didn't get going until around mid-May if I remember correctly.

Just took a drive up to Crich which is at around 900-950ft asl and it was snowing there. A thin dusting on the ground but plenty of thick flakes and a strong wind for added effect.

The Peak District is looking rather wintry this morning: http://www.flashbarstores.co.uk/

A decent storm now across Lancashire, they seem to be forming into a line. Unfortunately I am caught in the void of no action between that to the north and what is left of that to the south. Generally speaking though it is a good start to the storm season.

Already a few sferics this morning and now things kicking off to the west of London. No change to my thoughts from yesterday with a widespread convective risk across the UK today.

Squall line just passed through here with some heavy rain and strong winds. The winds were roaring as it moved over. However nothing overly impressive.... until it moved about 5 miles east of here and then looks to have intensified quite markedly Oh well, chance of a rumble or two tomorrow to get excited about.

A lot of weather going on in the next 72 hours with some very squally rain today and Storm Katie later in the Easter break, but I want to concentrate on tomorrow (Easter Day) specifically for the risk of convective activity and thunderstorms. Following today's squally rain band a showery airflow takes over and through tomorrow lapse rates increase across the UK in response to limited surface heating from the now strengthening sun. CAPE is nothing overly special in the grand scheme of things but GFS forecasts 300-500J/kg, which for March is very respectable. WRF shows a little more but NMM somewhat less. However, all models agree on the risk of some thundery activity among numerous showers through tomorrow. Using the GFS, showers already around southern and western coasts will become more widespread by late morning and through the afternoon, with the main risk transferring NE whilst dying away from the SW. The storm risk would therefore appear higher in northern and eastern areas as here will benefit from more surface heating through the morning. The chart for lapse rates shows where the highest lapse rates are at midday and by mid-afternoon. CAPE charts for 12z and 15z tomorrow show the same story with instability dying from the SW through the day whilst increasing further north and east Deep Layer Shear looks to increase from the south but is too late to affect the areas where heavy showers and thunderstorms develop and so showers that do develop will most likely be of the pulse type variety. Having said that, showers could form into bands along troughs and this would likely aid organisation. There also looks to be some 15-20 knots of low level shear which brings about a slight risk of something more potent and a slight tornado risk, especially around the east coasts of Lincolnshire and around the Humber. Chart below from www.lightningwizard.com/maps. In contrast, the high resolution Euro4 shows the Humber and Lincolnshire seeing very few showers with areas across Central and Western areas more at risk. The Euro4 shows a line running from the Bristol Channel to the Wash being one of a few SW to NE running zones, another being from Mid-Wales to Yorkshire. It is probably too early to advise yet on where would likely have the chance of seeing a storm or two tomorrow, but I have reasonable confidence now on there being a storm risk. Any stronger showers and thunderstorms tomorrow will have the potential to produce small hail (up to 1cm diameter) and gusty winds along with localised flooding. Lightning activity is likely but it will not be a widespread occurrence. Nevertheless it is the best set up of this year so far and for me looks to officially open the 2016 storm chase season Showers quickly lose their intensity late in the day for all areas with risk moving out into the North Sea by the time the sun goes down (an hour later than it does tonight). By this time those of us in England and eastern Wales will be looking south for the arrival of Storm Katie. She could provide some very heavy rainfall and severe gales overnight into Monday, especially for southern and eastern parts.

A few very light flurries here too.

A few photos of my Peak District walk: A snowy A57 Snake Pass A view looking north with the tracks I have made in the snow The Kinder Plateau View from the top of Kinder Scout looking north

This storm did have a very defined and photogenic gust front on its leading edge. I was chasing this storm and intercepted it near to the village of Woore in Shropshire and saw the gust front. It looks from this video that the lightning was more frequent when it hit your area, the storm had probably lost some of its intensity by the time it reached me. I believe this storm was an MCS, and a great one too. 22nd August last year was great for storms (a couple of video freeze frames below). Regarding Peak District snow. I climbed up Kinder Scout's northern edge today and there was plenty of snow, or should I say ridiculous amounts of snow up there. In places the snow was over waist deep, such as where it had drifted or filled in the gaps between rocks. It was a hard climb and my legs/feet are paying the price now! Some photos to follow.

Yes it is looking rather wintry up in the Peaks according to the webcams. A number of roads now closed in and around Buxton. http://www.buxtonweather.co.uk Just rain on and off in Derby but never really expected anything so not overly disappointed.

I doubt Derby will get anything but agreed that the Peak District looks odds on for a fair dumping. I am still planning on heading up there on Saturday, hopefully there will be a good blanket to greet me.

Just a bit of sleet on and off in Derby. However I won't despair as I will be visiting the Peak District this weekend and so happy to hear those hills starting to turn white ready for then. Forecasts don't show temps in the High Peak getting much above freezing all week so not expecting any major thaw.

Please blow the snow this way after you have had it . Although I think down here we may be just the wrong side of marginal for now. Possibilities this evening though.

I'll agree it has been a disappointing winter for snow, although we did get a couple of cm's of snow here on the 16th-17th January (see pic). Normally by this stage of the winter I have at least been able to walk around in deep snow up the Peak District but even up there the snow cover has been transient and never more than a light covering.

Had a wander over the park and there is around 2cm, maybe 3cm, of snow on the ground. Everything is white and so I am satisfied with that for now. Not enough to build a snowman but enough to make it look pretty and wintry.

Snowing nicely and settling. Only a dusting so far but it's coming down quickly so hopefully I can squeeze a couple of cms out of tonight.

Heavy precipitation now running NW to SE just to the west of the Peak District across the likes of Cheshire and Manchester. That looks to have some of our names on it.

Story of the evening here , notice the big gap over Derby and upwind from it . At least I can see the amusement in it.

A few flakes of snow coming down here too now, settling on cars and wheelie bins. I do wish I could be about 20 miles east of here though.

Radar has been showing sleet here for over an hour but there has not been any precipitation yet. It does appear the line of snow is further east than predicted, which is not good for IMBY. Unless it starts to take a more direct N to S track.

Not sure what to think here in Derby. Some models have me east of anything and so a dry night would be the outcome, others have snow but then others have it remaining as sleet down here with snow on higher ground. We will all know by this tomorrow who, if anyone, got the snow. My pick would be the Staffordshire hills as the best place.