Supacell

A few little specs of precipitation breaking out over the Midlands now. Is this the start Gordon, it is fine to post but filling a convective discussion with lots of "please don't let it happen" has the same effect as someone filling it up with "it won't happen here".

Just to reiterate AJ's post from earlier. It is likely to get busy in here later if things go to plan so would help if we kept the discussion on-topic. It will help myself and others out chasing too as scrolling through loads of moans can get frustrating when you are trying to get onto storms

A rather active storm in the western English channel will probably pay the likes of Dorset a visit in the next hour.

26c/16c here now and feels humid. The sun is out with just some shallow cumulus scattered about. It does not look convective yet but it feels it. I am looking at somewhere like the NW Midlands into the Peak District as good later this afternoon and then this expands north into Yorkshire and Cheshire areas.

I won't try to answer the question in depth as to be honest I do not really know the answer, but surface based CAPE always reduces at night. Storms will either then die out completely or become elevated in nature (if you have CAPE holding on higher in the atmosphere). As for tonight we do see the storms that develop become elevated across Northern England for a time but generally they are dying in intensity after sunset and also moving westwards - places in the N and W extremes of the UK could see storm activity lasting right through the night. The attention then turns to areas further south with elevated thunderstorms along the cold front which should be pushing into SW England by morning - this then pushes NE tomorrow with some warm and sunny weather ahead of it. As for this afternoon and evening - I am still unsure as to the highest risk areas but it would appear that the spine of N England is best favoured. I may actually be a little too far south in Derby with my bet being on Sheffield area northwards.

Who would want to bet against Lincolnshire in any thundery set up But joking aside I think anywhere in a line from about Stafford to Grantham and north looks the likely place for the first wave of storms. A guess would be somewhere like Sheffield to get the clobbering but that is purely a guess. Edit: The 00z NMM has just come out and that takes some storms north across from the West Midlands into NW England and the western Pennines late this afternoon before another wave develops across the likes of the Peak District and north Notts running into South Yorkshire and then northwards towards NW England. 18z Euro4 agrees with this too, so on these runs the likes of Lincolnshire stay dry. It will come down to radar watching I think. Met Office have moved the weather warning northward and expanded too to be more in line with the models. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings

From current GFS/NMM/Euro 4 I would say yes. However Met Office have it more your way. I will be waiting for the morning to make a final decision. At the end of the day it will come down to radar watching, cloud spotting etc but it is helpful to be near where they are going to fire. That tends to be the difficulty even if the models all agree. Maybe follow areas where wind convergence occurs as this may indicate a developing trough?

Yes, on current models we do both look in a good place for storms. I will keep a look out for the blue subaru chasing the tornadic supercell

Welcome to the forum Matt. Hopefully you will get to see something this weekend. Storm forecast now from Convective weather Full forecast here http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2015-08-22 I think it will be safe to say I am getting just a tad excited now as we are around 24 hours away. I have my storm chasing hat on for tomorrow. I know things can still change and go wrong but I will still enjoy the build up.

It is a looking like an exciting few days coming up. I am off all weekend and so (as usual) have everything ready to go out and chase. Tomorrow late afternoon and evening looks pretty tasty through the central slice of the country for thunderstorms.

Met office have a weather warning out for thunderstorms but not in the same place as GFS is showing. Clearly still a lot of uncertainty with GFS favouring central and western areas but Met Office more SE Midlands down to the N London area.

Okay, I am locking this thread now and starting a fresh new one for this upcoming spell and possibly beyond. Please continue the discussion here: https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/83809-storm-convective-discussion-20th-august-2015-onwards/

With another possible thundery episode upon us let's continue here with thoughts, forecasts and reports of all that is convective. Please keep moans and groans about the lack of storms in the No Storms Club thread here: https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80888-the-no-storms-club-july-2014-onwards/ Or, we even have a "where are my storms" thread here https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/83475-where-are-my-storms/ Please remember that nothing is 100% certain when weather is concerned and even less certain when forecasting thunderstorms. Unfortunately a lot of people will miss out where others may just get lucky. Let's try and remember that before blaming the forecasters. The old thread including my latest thoughts on the outcome for this weekend can be found here, although this is subject to change over the next 48 hours I am sure. https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/83579-storm-convective-discussion-160715-onwards/page-100#entry3248511 Best of luck to all that want a storm!

Still a long way off in terms of getting the locations right but as things stand it is looking quite good for some places to see thunderstorm activity this weekend. The main risk is currently looking to be across Central and Western areas through Saturday afternoon and evening with some decent CAPE being shown and this is coupled with ample deep layer shear in western parts to promote the risk of organised thunderstorms. I am in agreement with Thunderbolt with the suggestion of a squall line or similar late on Saturday across western England (on current runs). Hot, humid air looks to be pumped northwards (28-30c potentially in East Anglia and the SE) as an almost stationery cold/warm front sits across the west under an area of developing low pressure that is moving north and developing from the continent - BANG SBCAPE and Deep layer shear Wind convergence looks to occur along this cold front PWAT values are very high under a warm (hot), humid airmass being sucked up from the continent. This means that the atmosphere will be capable of holding a lot of water and dump a lot of rain GFS is liking the idea of a rather high supercell parameter brought about by adding some helicity into the mix - chart courtesy of lightning wizard Overnight the MLCAPE increases across southern parts and this may result in an increase in lightning activity from elevated storms pushing up from the continent. Meanwhile torrential rain continues elsewhere, but lightning activity may begin to die down going by this chart in more northern parts (reduction of CAPE) One of the difficulties here is the fact that low pressure looks to be developing over us or just to the south and this makes forecasting exactly where storms or heavy rain will be even more difficult than it normally is for the likes of the Met Office and BBC. As we are still 2 days away the areas at risk will change, and may not pan out at all like this forecast. This is a forecast based on TODAYS runs.

I suppose I can dream. It has been over 6 weeks now since I last saw a storm!

I think everyone knows what mine would be. Let's just say I spend hundreds on petrol every year searching for storms.I haven't seen a storm since the 4th July and so am now getting stomach cramps, cold sweats and hallucinations!

It all looks to be dying unfortunately. There is still plenty of time but currently it is all rather meh.

Nice little storm has broken out near to Ely, connected to the same line as the storm near Luton/Hertford. There is actually a line developing and pushing NNW.

I am watching the showers to the north and west of London. Even if they are not heading for Derby they are heading in the right direction and I have everything ready to jump in the car and chase.

A better chance than in Derby I would have thought. Keep your eye on East Anglia Antwerp has disappeared! http://www.hzs.be/webcam/

A couple of sferics around Hertford in those showers.

Just a tad Lightning visible on there now.

The cell to the NW of Amiens could have anywhere east of London in its sights. Agreed on East Anglia looking good too. I am considering taking a trip out if it can get as far north as say Lincolnshire.

More storms now firing to the west of this band too

Well to be fair the best storm I have seen all year was near your home town, that being on the 1st July. Developments now between Le Mans and Caen may provide some southern areas with interest although they are not producing sferics as yet. Storms now touching the east coast of Kent too.