Supacell

Unfortunately it looks to be dying rather than developing. We do look to be in a good position though on the Torro forecast. I am still planning on heading north but maybe directly north rather than northwest.

The destruction of the cell to my south is already happening. It is a good sign though that storms are breaking out and I think later on there will be better chance of something more meaty as we see some deep layer shear overlap high CAPE values. They have all been quite short-lived storms so far today.

Storm over the Cotswolds has Derby in its sights if it can survive

Currently 29c/16c here and feeling very humid. Not much thundery activity in the UK as yet but I feel this will change this afternoon and evening.

I am liking somewhere around Manchester as a good spot for later this afternoon, the risk then expanding north and east from this area through the evening and night. I may drive towards Lancashire after lunch.

Active storm making UK soil just east of Plymouth. A sign of things to come I hope.

Currently a few high based showers with one or two rumbles across the Midlands. There is an army of thunderstorms across France heading in this direction, some of these look to hit South Devon shortly. Here it is sunny and dry with a deep pink sunrise and just one or two high clouds but temperatures already at 16c with a dewpoint of 12c. Here I am just under the Estofex Level 2 but most of the UK is under the Level 1. Still at this range a great deal of divergence regarding where storms will break out today, and we are now into the period of action. The best I could do to try and guess is follow wind convergence, and there are a few - most being across Wales around Midday and moving into NW England then N England (Hull to Carlisle) and numerous ones in Scotland. I would guess at N Wales, NW England and then the north Pennines along with most of Scotland being best placed but really anywhere could see a storm.

I am getting quite interested in the charts for next week now. We are one day away from the arrival of the heat to the extent I will likely arrive back into the uk tomorrow and be greeted to similar temperatures I have left in Slovenia (30c yesterday). Then tomorrow night sees the start of what could be a very noteworthy thundery spell with storms moving across western parts overnight and then transferring slowly east during Wednesday. It can and probably will still change but it is looking increasingly likely for this first batch of storms. It then looks as if after a day with lower storm potential on Thursday (still some potential I may add) there is another shove of a thundery plume into Friday. Details and timing of this subject to change as still 4/5 days away. All in all a very interesting week of weather with potential of some intense and possibly severe storms with Weds and Fri currently looking the best days. Edit. I should have said this week not next. The continental heat is getting to me

Here in Slovenia there are alerts for thunderstorms again from 3pm until 8pm :-)

Wow, it narrowly missed my hotel but that was a proper storm! Bolt fest to my east :-)

Currently in Ljubljana, Slovenia and things looking interesting with storms breaking out. Nothing here yet but the storms to my north will hit providing they don't decay.

But the 00z GFS is an upgrade on last nights 18z runs with the heat further west and thunderstorms too. At this range the plume and heat will move around run to run but hopefully not so much it ends up over the near continent. Currently the UK is still set for heat and huge thunderstorm potential. The high is not as robust to the east this morning which does mean the heat is pushed away by Sunday, but this is 9 days away and subject to change (as is the entire event). If things came off as per the latest GFS then most of the UK would feel the heat and be in with a chance of a storm or two, maybe severe Storm Porn anyone? Courtesy of NMM.

The heat does get in briefly on the 12z for Tues/Weds but it is brief and quickly washed away to the east by thunderstorms. However, I think peoples upset may be premature as it is a brief retreat before the heat builds back for the weekend. Remember though, this is one run of one model for something 5 days away - there will be changes. As I thought, Friday looks baking hot across most of the UK

Off topic but the odds on the UK highest ever temperature being beaten this year is 12/1. May be worth a flutter

Well I have a few days of thunder potential to look forward to. Friday is showing up as a day for some possible storm activity in eastern parts - Met Office has the thunder symbol across Lincolnshire and NMM has some decent CAPE across the SE half of the UK: CAPE a lot more subdued on the GFS but all charts show an area of convective rain crossing W to E through the day in some warm and humid subtropical air courtesy of the remnants of TS Bill. After this I fly out to Slovenia for 3 days/nights. Now whilst there are no super CAPE charts showing for that area the forecasts I am seeing all seem keen to break out one or two storms during the course of the weekend so I may see something. Then I have the possibilities back here in the UK next week. Although it is a long way off I am off work all next week so would chase if anything looks to happen within reachable distance.

It can on mine if it likes

Before the will it or won't it plume of next week the east of the country may have some interest on Friday. Even Friday is a long way off though and the risk is small, but there could be a few rumbles for the usual suspects (Lincolnshire). There is nothing big on the horizon until next weeks possible plume. Although it has only about a 1 in 4 chance of coming off it is at least keeping us storm nuts interested. I won't be getting excited to the same level I did about the last one though until I see a huge black wall cloud moving over with frequent lightning and constant thunder

Some quite pokey showers running W to E just to my north across the Peak District. I wonder if there is any chance of a sferic or two from that lot?

Just driven through a small storm not far from Burton. Now near EM Airport under light rain and the sun poking out. My weather app was pretty much spot on for timing.

Unfortunately for me, yes... fortunate for you though. Still a chance of some pulse storms anywhere south of Liverpool to Hull this afternoon though with the possibility of something a little more organised running across the Met Office warning area later this afternoon/evening.

A short pulse of thundery stuff just to the north of Birmingham. Currently there is very little deep layer shear modeled and so I would imagine any storms would be short lived. It is later on that shear increases - i.e 6-9pm but if things happen now and not later then things are not as promising for a more organised storm. Incidentally, my weather app is showing heavy thunderstorm here at 3pm. I will know in less than an hour how accurate it is.

Met Office rainfall prediction looks interesting for the S and E Midlands this evening. Having said that, it's seems to be starting early with a rash of showers breaking out already, which isn't really what I wanted.

06z better for me imby but not going to pay too much attention and wait for signs on radar instead. I have my camera charged and free from 4.

Providing the sun breaks through it would not take too much heating today to allow for some thunderstorms to develop across a large swathe of the southern half of the UK with forecasts still showing a trough feature running within the warm sector across southern England. The risk is from around mid afternoon across Wales and SW Midlands transferring eastwards through the late afternoon/evening. I would draw a line from the North Wales coastline across to Hull and say anywhere south of this line and northeast of Bristol. However, the best risk looks to be in the SE portion of this risk box and so Reading across to Essex and southwards. Deep layer shear is better further south and so a better chance of more organised storms here, although shear does improve further north from this evening. The problem would be if this coincides with or is just behind the best instability. PWAT values quite high today so any storms that develop could drop quite a lot of rain in a short space of time, especially in the southern portion of the risk zone.

I haven't even checked the charts but I will do in the morning. If by that time it looks good then I may start to get excited. I'm not travelling tomorrow though so unless there is something within a 20 mile radius of me then I'll see nothing. I'm going to Slovenia next Sat for a few days so maybe I will see something there :-)