Supacell

I wish as I am off work all that week, so could even head off to Belgium. Unfortunately much more chance of that not verifying than verifying. Looks like some weak pulse thundery showers possible over the weekend into next week though.

I have bolded the word possibility as yes there was this possibility, which if you turn it around 180 degrees gives you the reason why all the forecasts said the possibility of thunderstorms. There were no forecasts that said a thunderstorm is a certainty. I do feel your pain, I am still getting over the disappointment myself, but unfortunately we cannot blame the forecasters, the mega computers or anything like that. It is just the unpredictability of the weather. I was optimistic myself but cloud cover spoilt the party for most. Welcome to this part of the forum by the way, I am sure the successful plume will come eventually

Just for fun, and because it helps me to reminisce, a few video stills of 10th May 2006, quality is poor as it was low light and I was using a low standard camcorder:

Yes I remember it well as I chased this storm, it was during my third year chasing storms in the UK. I intercepted the storm near to Cirencester and witnessed lightning strike a tree just outside my car. The storm started early evening and was still going after dark but by then my battery had run out on my old camcorder so I couldn't film anymore. There were so many CG bolts and crawlers in that storm though, a great night.

I doubt there are many, if any, exiting members after yesterdays efforts. tomp456, the time you are thinking of was June 2011, i believe the 28th. It was nicknamed El Gordo because storms would originate in Spain. I went out chasing that day and saw nothing. Then, as if to add insult to injury, there were huge storms the following morning directly over where I had been just 6 hours earlier. Yesterday was similar but not quote as bad as some did get a storm, I got the remnants of one south of London and thus far no kick in the knackers as yet :-)

A little disappointed in yesterday but alas this is the uk and weather is unpredictable, especially storms. I did see get myself just ahead of those storms across South London yesterday around 7pm, and was able to see one flash and rumble before it died. A lot of rain though, torrential for a time. On balance it was much less than I had hoped for and in hindsight not worth the petrol I used but hindsight is a great thing isn't it. I can't win them all and I take some pride in that I made the most of a day that just didn't turn out as planned. Thoroughly wet out there now and some showers to the south of the rain which are still quite pokey, but not thundery.

Please can you cut out the off topic posts. I am out chasing and just spent 5 minutes reading about being annoyed at forecasters and blaming them for the lack of storms 2 hours into the 12 hours of storm risk time! Yes, homegrowns look unlikely now but look south at N France, that is heading to the UK. That doesn't mean every single house in the risk zone will get struck by lightning though. Currently raining near to Oxford with big plump raindrops.

I am thinking I may need to head east as this is where the warmer temperatures are. It is very muggy here but more so around and north of London. I am thinking Luton/Aylesbury.

Clouds starting to look a bit thicker now and exhibiting darker bases as opposed to the white skies so far. Clutching at straws I know but i am still feeling hopeful.

Cell to the SW of London could produce, and heading directly for me. Fingers are crossed. Agree on humidity too, currently 22c with dp of 17c...sweaty.

Still sat just east of Oxford with roads to West London, the northern Home Counties, Newbury, Swindon, Cheltenham and Reading. Not sure where to head so going to stay put and eat :-)

Currently just outside Oxford with a few spots of rain outside and a muggy 22c despite the cloud. There was sunshine earlier though. Now just need it to kick off to my SE.

Why I realise waiting for storms can be stressful and lead to disappointment a lot of the posts over the last few pages are a) to premature as it is only 11:45 and b) more suited to the no storms thread. Come on people, chins up. If by 8pm there is nothing I will join you all with the disappointments.

I get a buzz whether out and about or at home, although the views from being out and about are much better than the houses i can see out of my windows at home. I do like the chase, as it is about trying to plot the sweet spot and then organizing to be somewhere in it whereby there are good road networks to intercept the storms if and when they come along. Storm chasing can lead to disappointment and there have been a few occasions whereby I have driven a distance to hear storms have gone over my house whilst I see nothing. However, I have seen many many more storms by chasing than if I just sat at home waiting for them to come to me.

I have decided I will start off in Oxford and will be heading out in the next couple of hours. I expect to be heading further south of this but uncertain yet as to whether to head SW, S or SE of there.

A new thread for all that is convective, please continue to post your observations and thoughts. Hopefully some more of us will be treated to some storms today/tonight and then more of us through the rest of summer. View the old thread here https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/83244-storm-convective-discussion-010615-onwards/page-92#entry3213349 Please put moans about not seeing a storm etc. in here https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80888-the-no-storms-club-july-2014-onwards/ Convective forecast for today from Nick F showing a marginal risk of severe weather. https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/83329-uk-storm-and-severe-convective-forecast/#entry3213035 Despite a slight downgrade overnight (to be expected) on GFS it is still looking like the best convective potential of the year so far for southern areas (Midlands south). The best potential for severe convective weather still looks to be late afternoon/early evening just south of the M4 corridor and this pushing gradually north into the later evening and night with continuation of thunderstorm activity and possible MCS development anywhere south of the Midlands. Areas around the Bristol channel towards towards the IOW and into South Wales have shown up on some models as being in the best (or worst) area for significant rain and thunderstorm activity. The Met Office continues to place the best storm activity to the east of the IOW but south of the M4. Later in the night as the thundery rainband pushes north we will probably see a decline in thundery activity, but there is still the possibility of some thunder around through until tomorrow morning. By tomorrow the thunder risk disappears as the plume moves off into the continent and we get left with a slow moving band of rain across the central slice of the country.

I am going to lock this thread shortly and start a new one for today's activity and beyond. New thread here: https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/83332-storm-convective-discussion-12th-june-2015-onwards/

Last Friday it was 13-15c at 9am in Norfolk with cloud and residual storms. By 3pm it was 25-26c. It doesn't take long for the sun at this time of the year to raise those temperatures if the airmass is a warm one. If the sun is breaking through already then my hopes are high for today

I probably should have said that I was concentrating on the "sweet spot" of the M4 corridor between London and Bristol. Of course, the sweet spot could well have moved or the GFS could be wrong in it's prediction. To be honest I know looking at the models at this stage is futile and a far better source now is radars and observations from people on the ground. It's just I would have liked some agreement from the models and forecasts as to where would be the best place for me to head out. Currently I am sticking with the M4 corridor

It's a beautiful Sunrise here with no cloud in sight. If clouds break early in southern areas then the prediction of 22-23c is very underestimated and thus so will CAPE forecasts.

Huge downgrade from GFS this morning. There is still a chance of storms in the south but it looks to have reduced dramatically from last nights charts. I wonder if residual left over cloud is now expected to inhibit things? Edit: Most probably as temperatures are 2-3c cooler for today on the latest 00z run for the south.

Last time I saw one was 19th July last year and there were some amazing storms that day.

Absolutely. Also the BBC forecasts stress the uncertainty of tomorrow's forecast and so things could be more or less widespread and in different areas than what they are currently showing. I think it is clear we have a plume pushing in tomorrow and this means things could pop up anywhere from late today onwards - restricted to the SW for today though and Midlands southwards tomorrow. Tomorrow night could still bring thundery weather further north yet, it's not set in stone. My current chase plan could be totally different by the time I get home from work and different again by this time tomorrow.

I now have tomorrow off and so will be chasing tomorrow, I finally buckled . My current plan is to head down the M5 towards the Wiltshire area for the morning. I may even leave tonight if early hours storms look like getting inland from the coast. I hope to be where the biggest chance of homegrown storms are tomorrow before tracking and chasing the expected storm band northwards back to home on Friday night.

I heard somewhere that the trigger temperature for tomorrow is around 24-25c. If that is not reached then home grown storms seem unlikely and we will be reliant on anything that pushes north out of France tonight and on the thundery rain band tomorrow evening/night. Still, tomorrow evening's rain band looks quite intense and thundery as it pushes into the south. Euro4 looking good for the SW later today - Devon, Cornwall and SW Pembrokeshire.