Supacell

GFS is still developing showers and an area of slight CAPE in the post frontal warm airmass across the Midlands into Lincolnshire and East Anglia this afternoon. It is fairly early on with the best chances being through the afternoon, drying out through the evening, although showers continue to pepper western areas. If GFS is on the mark then the southern portion of this CAPE could benefit from around 20 knots of deep layer shear which could help organise any showers or storms that do form. It is a low risk and dependent on some sunshine breaking through, without the sunshine I do not see any storms. The Met Office, BBC and Euro4 all show showers breaking out somewhat later from mid afternoon through to the evening in pretty much the same places as the GFS. A more pronounced area of showers develops in a line from around Cardiff to the Wash on Euro4. Overall I think there is a chance today for anyone across the Central slice of the country to get some heavy showers and maybe a weak storm - Midlands/Lincolnshire/EA. A stronger storm may develop across the SE Midlands and move into East Anglia. Tomorrow night sees an area of heavy rain move up from France on what will have been a day of big thunderstorms for them. There is the chance that some of this thundery activity could clip the SE and far east of East Anglia, giving the risk of some overnight thunderstorms. This is subject to change though, any shift east would keep the thundery stuff over the Continent, something we in the UK have become very accustomed to. A shift west and more of us could see something thundery.

Most of them missing to the north of here, we have had some moderate showers. A small chance of some of these turning thundery as the band moves south with showers continue moving from SW to NE along it. Most of the forecasts are favouring areas south of the Midlands for anything thundery. It has been a very quiet April so far for convective activity, but maybe some chances in the last few days of the month, although nothing overly spectacular.

The latest charts indicate a very slight chance of an isolated storm developing tomorrow evening somewhere around CS England (maybe to the W of London) and heading ENE to the north of London and into EA in the first part of the night. However, this is a very isolated risk and most places, if not all places, to the south of the Midlands look to stay dry. Further north it is a case of a weakening cold front moving south but this does not look to bring any storm risk with it, just cloud and a few spots of rain. Certainly not looking as good as it did this time yesterday and before, but maybe a touch better than it looked yesterday evening. However, for the Midlands south away from any S or W facing coasts it could still get very warm with temperatures into the 70's Fahrenheit.

Latest charts from GFS have removed any storm risk and no further mention on BBC or Met Office. Still time for a change again of course.

The charts and forecasts are still going for somewhere in middle to southern England possibly seeing a storm on Wednesday. BBC are hinting at isolated thunderstorms on Wednesday, GFS holding off the risk until much later in the day. Wednesday is also now in the range of the lightning wizard charts. Currently I am seeing it remaining mostly dry for most through Wednesday but with some well scattered thunderstorms possible, these will have the ability of producing some decent lightning and possibly hail although severe weather very unlikely. I would be looking at wind convergence as a possible focal point. However, it's just a "fingers crossed wishful thinking" thing for me at present.

Agreed, I have merged the Plumewatch thread with this one as gets a little messy having two threads running for essentially the same discussion. As has already been mentioned, we are starting to see some signs of convective and storm opportunity in around 8-10 days time. This is outside what we can call the reliable timeframe but it is nice to see these charts starting to show up, makes me feel the storm season is just around the corner. I will be keeping a close eye on this one

A line of intense precipitation across the north Midlands now with some sferics west of Derby. Brought a brief spell of heavy squally rain here with gusty winds.

As expected today was more about cloudscapes and one or two showers with a hail element to them. It is nice to see those convective clouds going up under spring sunshine again, even if it felt like winter if you weren't in the benefit of any sunshine. Not far off storm chasing season for me now.

I never saw this one first time around either. If you are still looking then I do lots of storm chasing every year around the UK and have plenty to tell. PM me on here, maybe I can help

Exciting weather around 1ish over Derby with hail, snow and one flash of lightning/bang of thunder. It was all over within 15 minutes but quite exciting for a time. Unfortunately was in work so unable to see as much as I would have liked.

Just opened the door and it's snowing, light dusting on the ground. Hopefully more to come.

Frustration here too, still nothing.

Yes agreed, I see nothing for the Midlands on there.

Not misguided, as far as I am aware it is later today and tonight before we get the proper cold. We then need precipitation though to get snow and this will sometimes not become evident until a few hours beforehand.

I doubt I would. They kept me firmly locked away in the office. Unless he was one of those locked in there with me As for the weather. It's a cold, damp morning here. I am just glad I managed to get up into the peak district yesterday. I don't like cold uneventful weather, but this week at least has the interest of possible snowy troughs.

Poor guy. I used to work there.

It is looking like around 100m and higher is getting snow this morning but most other parts having rain which is washing away the snow cover (although there isn't really a snow cover here). This coming week looks very cold, cold enough for precipitation to fall as snow, but there doesn't look to be much precipitation. GFS 00z looks very dry and cold. However, I know precipitation charts are of little use so won't concern myself too much with that.

It's all rain in Derby.

I had a drive up into the Peak District today. Around 6 inches of snow generally but looks to have drifted deeper in parts with exposure. Ended up walking around Castleton. Here thee was about a foot of snow over fields and paths but higher up there were areas with no snow but other areas with snow over knee deep, clear indication that snow was drifting as it fell. Temperatures managed to rise up to 2c this afternoon even up in the Peaks with the snow thawing slightly.

Snow falling here, looks like that lot coming into the NW could hit here if it survives.

1mm = 1cm (approx) I am afraid that it looks like the "polar low" is tracking closer to what the Met Office has predicted to my eyes. I do hope I am wrong, I want an NMM track but I am not seeing that unfortunately.

I would if it had stuck around. Can't complain though as I did do okay from the Boxing Day event. I think we are all overdue a widespread snowfall that is not marginal and provides a white blanket for the whole region. Maybe next week, the cold looks to be in place so it's a start

Not all of the East Midlands have done well today. I have had very little lying snow, the 1-2cm that did lie from a heavy shower around 1pm melted soon after, so we have just a few patches now. Most of the showers have missed here. Areas to the north such as Sheffield and Chesterfield looked to be in the sweet spot with up to a foot being reported over higher parts.

From an IMBY point of view I am hoping the NMM has this one correct

It depends which model has this correct. GFS 12z has it affecting the NW then E Midlands in the firing line. However Met Office has it much further west of us and the NMM 06z has it over the S and W Midlands. ECM apparently has it further west too, affecting just Wales and the SW as rain.