Supacell

I have decided I will start off in Oxford and will be heading out in the next couple of hours. I expect to be heading further south of this but uncertain yet as to whether to head SW, S or SE of there.

A new thread for all that is convective, please continue to post your observations and thoughts. Hopefully some more of us will be treated to some storms today/tonight and then more of us through the rest of summer. View the old thread here https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/83244-storm-convective-discussion-010615-onwards/page-92#entry3213349 Please put moans about not seeing a storm etc. in here https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80888-the-no-storms-club-july-2014-onwards/ Convective forecast for today from Nick F showing a marginal risk of severe weather. https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/83329-uk-storm-and-severe-convective-forecast/#entry3213035 Despite a slight downgrade overnight (to be expected) on GFS it is still looking like the best convective potential of the year so far for southern areas (Midlands south). The best potential for severe convective weather still looks to be late afternoon/early evening just south of the M4 corridor and this pushing gradually north into the later evening and night with continuation of thunderstorm activity and possible MCS development anywhere south of the Midlands. Areas around the Bristol channel towards towards the IOW and into South Wales have shown up on some models as being in the best (or worst) area for significant rain and thunderstorm activity. The Met Office continues to place the best storm activity to the east of the IOW but south of the M4. Later in the night as the thundery rainband pushes north we will probably see a decline in thundery activity, but there is still the possibility of some thunder around through until tomorrow morning. By tomorrow the thunder risk disappears as the plume moves off into the continent and we get left with a slow moving band of rain across the central slice of the country.

I am going to lock this thread shortly and start a new one for today's activity and beyond. New thread here: https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/83332-storm-convective-discussion-12th-june-2015-onwards/

Last Friday it was 13-15c at 9am in Norfolk with cloud and residual storms. By 3pm it was 25-26c. It doesn't take long for the sun at this time of the year to raise those temperatures if the airmass is a warm one. If the sun is breaking through already then my hopes are high for today

I probably should have said that I was concentrating on the "sweet spot" of the M4 corridor between London and Bristol. Of course, the sweet spot could well have moved or the GFS could be wrong in it's prediction. To be honest I know looking at the models at this stage is futile and a far better source now is radars and observations from people on the ground. It's just I would have liked some agreement from the models and forecasts as to where would be the best place for me to head out. Currently I am sticking with the M4 corridor

It's a beautiful Sunrise here with no cloud in sight. If clouds break early in southern areas then the prediction of 22-23c is very underestimated and thus so will CAPE forecasts.

Huge downgrade from GFS this morning. There is still a chance of storms in the south but it looks to have reduced dramatically from last nights charts. I wonder if residual left over cloud is now expected to inhibit things? Edit: Most probably as temperatures are 2-3c cooler for today on the latest 00z run for the south.

Last time I saw one was 19th July last year and there were some amazing storms that day.

Absolutely. Also the BBC forecasts stress the uncertainty of tomorrow's forecast and so things could be more or less widespread and in different areas than what they are currently showing. I think it is clear we have a plume pushing in tomorrow and this means things could pop up anywhere from late today onwards - restricted to the SW for today though and Midlands southwards tomorrow. Tomorrow night could still bring thundery weather further north yet, it's not set in stone. My current chase plan could be totally different by the time I get home from work and different again by this time tomorrow.

I now have tomorrow off and so will be chasing tomorrow, I finally buckled . My current plan is to head down the M5 towards the Wiltshire area for the morning. I may even leave tonight if early hours storms look like getting inland from the coast. I hope to be where the biggest chance of homegrown storms are tomorrow before tracking and chasing the expected storm band northwards back to home on Friday night.

I heard somewhere that the trigger temperature for tomorrow is around 24-25c. If that is not reached then home grown storms seem unlikely and we will be reliant on anything that pushes north out of France tonight and on the thundery rain band tomorrow evening/night. Still, tomorrow evening's rain band looks quite intense and thundery as it pushes into the south. Euro4 looking good for the SW later today - Devon, Cornwall and SW Pembrokeshire.

This morning's forecasts and model runs keep the thunderstorm risk in the south, especially the south west. The first of three storm episodes will likely reach the far SW today (tip of Cornwall) before elevated storms become more widespread across the south coast tonight. There could be a few flashes and bangs overnight into early tomorrow. Tomorrow daytime, provided there isn't too much cloud left over from overnight, areas to the south and west at risk of some home grown storms, these especially so in SW parts slightly inland from the south. I would be inclined to think SW of a line from Aberystwyth to Essex. These storms could have torrential rain, hail and gusty winds. This is still open to doubt though as it would require temperatures to get high enough. Tomorrow evening a more coherent band of rain and thunderstorms moves into the south and pushes NNW through the Midlands and into Northern England. it looks like the thundery activity will be weakening on this by the time we get to Saturday morning but by this time most places south of say Liverpool to the Humber will have the opportunity to see a thunderstorm (of the elevated non severe variety). Even by Saturday the odd rumble cannot be ruled out. From an IMBY point of view it therefore looks like a couple of dry and increasingly warm and humid days before some thundery rain on Friday night, and this is likely to have some lightning and thunder in it. If I was to guess a sweet spot I would be saying somewhere close to the Bristol channel - Somerset, Wiltshire, South Wales. Of course we can look at all the models in the world but the reality is it will come down to radar watching as storms are unpredictable and all we can do is guess where the best ones will be. EDIT: Latest NMM shows a shift south again. We don't want too much more of shift south.

I think all the thundery stuff will be gone by Saturday night. It is Thursday night to Saturday morning the period where thunderstorms could occur.

The current forecasts and models are indicating to me that there will be a lot of thunderstorms for southern areas on Thursday night and Friday and they will be extended northwards but also tend to become more a spell of thundery rain - i.e. lots of rain with the odd flash and rumble - as opposed to thunderstorms. I am hoping I am reading it wrong for my area and further north of here.

Some of the models delaying the action for here until Fri eve which suits me very well, especially if it means sunshine and heat first.

A sudden stomach bug? Looking at current forecasts it does look like storms would be rumbling around in the south of the country Thursday night so if it looks like all the potential will happen at home whilst I am work then I can spend the night down south and then struggle through work next day. It won't be the first time I have stayed awake for 36 hours to storm chase

Haha, just a pity that last week didn't happen as I booked a day off for that. I can't now take another Friday off so looks like I may have to sit this one out if it happens Unless they come evening/night time of course. Interesting video from Weather History, shows my view of 10 years ago is a bit skewed as I thought temperatures were up close to 30c. It actually does, after seeing that, look a very similar set up to what is being shown for the end of the week.

I would love a rerun of 28/06/05. I got a decent amount of footage but the quality isn't great as that was back in the days of me having a hi8 camcorder. That event though followed a day with temps close to 30c and the end of this week doesn't look as good as that night unfortunately. Still good though and room for upgrades, but also downgrades.

Met Office 6-15 day forecast mentioning thundery rain and possibly hot in the SE on Friday so this would go along with the charts posted above by Weather09.

Yeah I would too. It would just be a case of juggling it around work and commitments.

Yes I agree with that. We need good conditions on the near continent to coincide with when people can be free. Like you, I wish I had booked that ferry to spend today over there. Still, there will be other opportunities.

Probably Dusseldorf from Stansted. Check on www.skyscanner.com, it is quite useful for trying different dates and combinations.Sorry, that's www.skyscanner.net

Complete agree with this. It seems to be a rarity nowadays for continental plumes to deliver the goods here. It does happen, but it is that rare that us storm fans can normally rattle those very few dates out off the top of our heads. Since the start of 2013 - July 22nd/23rd 2013, June 9th 2014, July 17th-19th 2014. I realise the far SE of Kent may have had more but these are the three (yes three) widespread plume events over the last 2 years. Now ask a storm nut from Holland to rattle off dates of storms - if they could they should be on Hollands Got Talent!

Great find! Just saw a huge CG!

So it happened for some then. I wonder what today can produce for EA and the SE?