Supacell

Me too. I took last week and this week. What a great week to be off

I video them and use 720p and 60fps. The reason I don't use 1080p is because my laptop cannot handle editing footage at that resolution. 60fps is better than 30fps for capturing lightning I would think. Another option would be to set it up to take 10 photos every second. I haven't tried this method so don't know how good it would be. I prefer video though, then you get to hear the rain and the thunder.

I use a GoPro camera and although it can get some great video of lightning I have found that if the bolt is too close or bright then on occasion you don't actually get to see the shape of the bolt but rather a very bright flash. Unfortunately you can't adjust shutter speed or exposure. I am hoping that tonight I get plenty of bites at the cherry for good lightning footage.

Absolutely. I would not be surprised to hear of large hail reports tomorrow morning again.

Tony Gilbert on UKWW saying cloud tops of up to 40,000ft and cooling to -63c!!! That is going to produce some serious lightning!!!

I do rate our area tonight to see something. My concern is whether it will be big intense thunderstorms or just an area of thundery rain. There is plenty of elevated instability, deep layer shear and most models this morning do show our area under some heavy precipitation. Watch this mornings forecast, a nice yellow blob across our region Of course taking the blobs literally is rather futile, but it is looking good.

Thanks mate. I am thinking I will stay put as would be more gutted if I spent petrol money and drove for hours to the SE to find nothing and Derby got hit than if I stayed at home and missed it further SE. Local Radio talking of torrential rain and large hailstones across here this evening so they don't seem to be going with the "thundery rain" idea, more severe thunderstorms. In other news, Carol has mentioned that dreaded H word although did say storms would be on a par with Wednesday night and having being there under some of them I can say they definitely were h.....

This morning the GFS is showing a widespread storm risk across everywhere during the night and tomorrow with the risk transferring from SW to NE. The best storms are in the SE of this portion - so SE of a line from Devon to Hull. The favoured areas would be SE and EA for a more severe storm. The UKMO and BBC are totally at odds with this as they forecast the heaviest and most potent rainfall to come into the SW and move more NNE across Wales, the Midlands and up into N England. Here you could probably draw a similar line - lets say IOW to Hull and say everywhere NW of this for the best chance and pretty much nothing over the GFS favoured areas of the SE and EA. The NMM favours the UKMO solution and brings the precipitation across the same areas as the BBC but the higher CAPE values are there in the SE and EA, not so much in the N and W. MLCIN is stronger in the SE though which would explain the precipitation forecast. The WRF model I am looking at agrees with the GFS solution as does the Estofex forecast - although the Estofex charts do always back the GFS. The whole country benefits from deep layer shear (DLS) in the region of 20-30knts and so any storms are likely to become organised. The south east also benefits from an abundance of helicity and so storms here would have the potential to turn supercellular. So, what we have here is a failure to communicate! However, my take on it is that I see a risk of thunderstorms generally across the north and west, including the Midlands, with a risk of CG lightning (at least at first) and large rainfall totals leading to localised flooding. The lack of any CIN and a lot of DLS in the western portion would indicate that thunderstorms could become very widespread and eventually merge into an area of less exciting thundery rain, dumping a lot of water but producing only a small amount of lightning. If the GFS solution is correct and storms can develop close to the SE and EA then these would remain as more isolated cells but have the potential to become supercells with more in the way of severe weather such as large hail, frequent lightning and even a tornado. As a storm chaser, I now have the decision of staying put to enjoy what I get here as the risk of seeing something is high or gambling for a lower risk of something more spectacular by heading SE.

A bit worried about the notion of thunderstorms merging into an area of thundery rain tonight. I am envisaging lots of rain with the odd flash and rumble whereas yesterday I was thinking an evening similar to the 28th June 2005.

Like the sound of that. Gone dark and windy here, looks like a storm incoming but radar still looks unimpressive.

The rain band is just about to arrive here in Derby. There are signs of intensification but it will have to intensify quick to produce T+L here. Maybe a better chance further north and east. Great minds think alike ChezWeather

After what was a memorable day for many yesterday with record breaking heat and thunderstorms, what do the next few days have in store from a convective standpoint. Continue your discussions and reports in here. Old thread here: https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/83457-storm-convective-discussion-spanish-plume-300615-onwards/ If you have still not seen that elusive storm since last July you are always welcome in here to discuss your woes. https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80888-the-no-storms-club-july-2014-onwards/ If you want to have a moan about the fact your storm didn't turn up, why do ????? always get all the storms or post details of the fact nothing is happening over your house then please feel free to post in our new dedicated moaning thread: https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/83475-where-are-my-storms/ Day 2 of this plume produced for a number of people, especially for the northern half of the UK with parts of the NE seeing possibly more than one supercell yesterday afternoon. There are still more opportunities today and then more especially later tomorrow when we see another round of big thunderstorms forecast. Nick's forecast from yesterday (covering today also) can be found here: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=

Going to close this thread shortly and open a new one for all that potential today onward.

I sped down the A50 towards Stoke and saw my first flash and could see that the storms were heading up the M6 and so I did the same. I then drove along the M62 through Manchester and stopped off at a few points to witness the constant flickering and IC bolts. I have a lot of footage but it needs editing and putting together as a movie. I will hopefully get to do that tomorrow but haven't even edited my Slovenian storm footage yet ..... although tonight's storm was far better (and I didn't expect to be saying that as the Slovenian one was impressive).

Just got back after chasing a storm from around Stoke on Trent to Manchester and then watching it from around Manchester. I have to say I don't think I can remember seeing lightning so frequent. As it departed it was producing a constant display of IC lightning and flashes. As I core punched the storm to the west of Manchester it was producing absolute torrents of rain, strong winds and plenty of lightning of both the flashy and the bolty variety. A great end to a memorable day for intense heat with one of my best storms to date. I cannot believe people were writing this one off. Just about to catch up on this thread now but I bet a lot of people have seen something quite special this evening

I think it will be a Friday night event this far north, although we both know how unpredictable storms can be. Current models have it arriving with us early hours of Saturday though.

I will start a new thread tomorrow morning after we have seen the rest of today's potential (if nobody else beats me to it)....so it's a yes And yes, Friday's potential could still be quite widespread.

This thread is ridiculous this evening. There are people moaning about not having seen a storm yet and it is only just gone 6pm. There are people attacking other members for gracing us with their more experienced views. Nobody is paid to put their thoughts on here, they do so out of their enjoyment of the subject and to give us an insight into what is likely to happen. I for one very much appreciate the likes of those who provide their honest balanced opinions and quite frankly get tired of those that provide attacks towards the met office and others - I am sure many others agree. If I had more time I would go through and delete 50% of the posts on here, or at least move them to where they should be. Is the heat getting to people or what???? I still think there is hope both this evening, tonight and then for the rest of the week and into the weekend. Come on, we all share a love of storms - lets not start attacking each other.

The storm over the NE is Derby born and bred Another narrow line of showers and sferics heading towards Brighton from the Channel.

It actually looks better than today for most, although Euro4 did not pick up on the storms moving through Yorkshire currently so not sure how accurate that is.

The road network is so rubbish in the UK, traffic congestion is the bane of a UK storm chaser. I have the choice of the A52/A1 I suppose. Thanks though for that mate.

The storm moving north through the Peak District missed Derby by about 2-3 miles. I could see some distant bolts and plenty of distant rumbles but I was hoping for a closer hit. Problem now is it distracted me from getting north into a decent location for anything later this afternoon. Thank you for the information about the lorry fire on the M1, that is valuable information as I would have probably have used that route (main route north from here). It is currently 33c and feels so humid you literally pour with sweat as soon as you step out the door. 33c makes it the hottest day here since July 2006 I believe.

I am actually thinking that something will break out over NW England/NW Midlands late afternoon and head NE through East Yorkshire - so maybe somewhere such as the Humber evening time. Still guess work though. Recent sferic north of Coventry.

I am no expert and it is hard to second guess where is best. I would think we could be in the breeding ground area and so areas further north east would be better. Looking at current charts you wouldn't want to bet against Lincolnshire.

Thanks Paul, I am on this and really hoping to see something this afternoon. Car fuelled, camera ready - all I need is the nod from the charts/radar and I am off.