Supacell

This is exactly the sound I heard before a storm on the evening of 22nd July 2013! I always wondered what it was, almost sounded like constant distant thunder but it was definitely this. Thanks for sharing

Nothing here last night, although we have some steady rain falling now from the cold front pushing through. For those that did get the storms overnight it looks from the videos, photos and eye witness reports to be quite similar to the 1st July across the NW with the constant flashing of IC bolts in the cloud being seen from a distance away. I witnessed this on that day and it was first time I had seen it in the UK, it has now happened twice in the space of 3 weeks. Not bad going at all!

Some intense precipitation on the V6 radar just to the NW of London, although not much in the way of sferics (at least not in comparison to other events earlier this month). It is the best storm in the UK currently though.

Met Office going with some cells breaking out further west from the current developing storm trail, maybe clipping into the Nottinghamshire/Leicestershire part of the East Midlands overnight. It does look like I am too far west though even for this. It would appear from reports elsewhere that some of these storms are not elevated and so you could be correct here.

I have put together a map with the rough current predictions from the main models. You can probably try and muster from this areas most at risk, although it could still go wrong! Black - General thunderstorm area from NMM/WRF Blue - More intense thunderstorms from NMM/WRF Orange - Risk zone from GFS Yellow - Risk zone from Euro4 Red - Risk zone from Met Office

East Midlands Airport TAF has thunderstorms from 22z to 04z prob 30%

Derby looks on the cusp of the action on most models but some have all the action east of here. It appears I would best to head east if I want a higher chance. However, I have seen a number of storms elsewhere and would quite like to be able to see one without having to drive. A repeat of the 4th July would be very nice.

Estofex do not normally release a forecast until early am.

Make no mistake mate I am interested and watching this. However, I have been keeping quiet currently due to the uncertainties with the BBC currently going for places through the central slice of the UK and the GFS going for the SE. There is the obvious worry of a shunt east taking all the action to the Low Countries. If they come off as shown on GFS then probably not as widespread as the 4th July but severity level would likely be similar if not more so. Helicity and supercell parameter - very high in the SE Both CAPE values and shear values are high enough alone but combined would provide some excitement If this was showing for within 24 hours then this thread would likely be buzzing. We shall see

I get some detail using video stills from lightning taken on a camcorder but nothing like the photos posted on here. I am assuming the photos are taken with a decent spec camera.

It wasn't a 23rd July 2013 beater for me, although came close.

Oh to be in Lincolnshire right now..... Oh wait, I am about 6 hours to early for that

Matt Taylor on BBC says a line of storms moving through overnight - Midlands north.

We have some AcCas here too. I wonder if there may be some surprises tonight. I can't see any model that forecasts thunder this far south but rain is forecast.

Thanks for that. It looks a serious storm by all accounts. Back to the UK, there does look to be a risk of some thunderstorms tomorrow evening in the NE of England and SE of Scotland. It is a small zone but in that zone the forecast CAPE is up to 500j/kg on GFS and although 20 knots of wind shear is not a great deal it could be enough to allow for some organisation, particularly along a line of wind convergence which seems to form over the North Pennines and then shift NE towards the coast. Euro4 is offering up around an inch of rain between 6pm and midnight tomorrow evening in the NE.

Not UK related but footage of a large tornado near to Venice, Italy - taken yesterday afternoon I believe. http://thevane.gawker.com/video-appears-to-show-italians-terrifying-encounter-wit-1716580804

This would explain why trying to get a freeze frame from my GoPro camcorder has this "stripey" effect on some of the lightning shots I have taken whereas my old mini-dv camcorder didn't. Of course, when playing the video you don't actually see this as the scanning must occur in a fraction of a second.

Yes this is often a problem for me. I have still not figured out how to get rid of the wind but keep the other sounds.

I may be mistaken, or clutching at straws, but I am drawn to the early part of tomorrow as a front moving from the NW to the SE looks to produce a very defined but narrow band of intense precipitation. I am interested in the possibility of storms running along it. The following charts are taken from lightning wizard and so are based on GFS and are for 06z tomorrow. Parcel Layer Depth quite impressive along a narrow line. Looks to me like a NW to SE moving line with SW to NE moving storms (if there are any). As small amount of MUCAPE (most unstable) and ICAPE (integrated) available but combined with 30-40 knots of deep layer shear. Thompson index and precipitation on chart 1 - hail parameter on chart 2 showing hail of up to 2-3cm in diameter Plenty of moisture along the same narrow strip. Does anyone else have a view on this?

I know pollutants in the atmosphere can make the moon appear red because of the way the pollutants affect the wavelengths that can get through... or something like that. This is only apparent when the moon is fairly low in the sky though, and never when the moon is overhead. If you apply this same science to lightning it could explain red/orange lightning when a distance away and on the horizon. I have never seen overhead or close lightning that is red... only ever blue, white or occasionally pink. Incidentally the pink lightning I have witnessed has always been during the evening hours (i.e. as the sun is getting lower in the sky). The storm on Saturday morning occurred in a plume scenario, air quality was poor and it happened overnight and continued on towards dawn. I can see on mu video a slight red tint to the blackness on the horizon, possibly from the sun just behind the horizon ahead of sunrise. This may explain the red and white/blue tints to the lightning at the end of the night - red on the horizon but blue/white when closer. The snap below is from a distant flash - notice the reds, blues and whites (albeit feint) and the redness on the horizon looking east. Sorry it is not brighter but by this time the storms were around 15 miles away to my east.

Another thundery shower just passing to the south on the radar. Tuesday morning could be interesting with what likes like an active cold front moving through during the early hours. GFS shows around 500j/kg of CAPE along a narrow line coupled with deep layer shear and low ELT's. Too far away for any detail yet.

Well Derby missed out on both bands and it has remained bone dry. That squall line feature moving into the NE looks impressive on radar and also from underneath it looking at the photos.

Rapid intensification across N Cheshire and into Manchester. Nothing around Derby though, as the south of the band looks to be fizzling. Showers over Wales will give us in the Midlands another shot, although not looking very potent currently.

A nice gap in the heaviest precipitation heading for Derby.... I guess this is one of the reasons I chase storms and don't rely on them coming to me

It is looking increasingly interesting, I am hoping not to have to travel though as would like to see one at home. Yes, Friday night I met a storm near to Stone in Staffordshire and then after watching it come over I chased along the line of storms on the A50 east from Uttoxeter back to Derby. I arrived in Derby just as a cell there was moving off to the NE.