Supacell

I drove up to the Peak District this afternoon - between Leek and Buxton around the village of Flash. There is a bit of snow, I would estimate about an inch but it isn't a solid blanket due to the rugged ground and plants up there. I did get to see some snow falling though as those showers passed through, which is the first snow I have seen from this cold spell. Minor roads were quite icy and I had to be careful on the steep inclines/declines. I do like these cold spells whereby something can appear last minute or a snow to rain event could stay as snow. Okay, it may come to nothing but it is still exciting to watch the forecasts unfold and change on an almost hourly basis!

The coldest temperature of the month was -12.9c at Aboyne, Aberdeenshire early on the 11th March. The cold spell at the end of the month was more remarkable because of low maxima than low minima with ice days but too much wind for it to get too low at night.

March 2013 was very cold and snowy here around Derby. The Peak District was absolutely pasted with snow and it stayed on the ground from the 22nd March well into April. A few freeze frames of video I took in the Peak District on the 24th March. January 2013 saw some deep snowfalls too but not to the extent of March. There is already some snow up in the Peak District. I will likely head up there this weekend as I expect there will be a nice blanket up there by then. I do not expect anything like the scenes of March 2013 though, I would be surprised if I saw something that exceptional for a long time.

The lightning archive shows a strike at around 1am just off the coast near to Dartmouth.

Sferics are being detected in the BoB and have been for much of the night. Thundery activity has already been into the SW coast as far east as Dorset. This brings me onto today. Numerous bands of showers are expected around an area of low pressure today, spinning up in a northeasterly direction. These will bring some heavy rainfall at times which may lead to localised flooding. CAPE values look to be around 200-400j/kg around southern and western coasts which on the face of it is not that high (but high enough for some thunderstorm activity to occur). Added to this is the component of wind shear and this aids in the development of more organised thunderstorms. Mid level lapse rates are also on the increase later on today across England and Wales. A risk of hail and gusty winds in any heavy showers or storms. Whereas the risk of heavy rain is widespread, the risk of thunderstorms looks to be more likely along southern coasts of England, Wales and along Irish sea coasts of England, Wales and SW Scotland. However I would not be surprised if any more organised storms achieve getting quite far inland today. My thoughts are below. As I said this is a low risk for most, although I do think we have a better risk today than so far this week. The convective outputs do not look like the kind of thing I would expect to see in January.

Thanks guys. If we see anything this week from a convective standpoint then it is a bonus considering it is January.

Two days on and very little has happened. My apologies I did expect from the charts I was seeing that there would have been some thundery activity around our southern and western coasts. Now either I had been drinking too much Christmas sherry and was seeing things that weren't there or the charts I was looking at were still hung over from their New Year celebrations. There is still a risk of something thundery occurring today around southern and SE coasts of England but if the last two days are anything to go by then I would not hold my breath. After a quieter day tomorrow and more dynamic rainfall into Thursday, there is further convective interest for the end of the week/weekend but it is a long way off and again my breath is not being held for this one.

Welcome to 2016 and a brand new year for our storm chances, lets hope we get some good ones. I am looking forward to spring when I can get out there and storm chase once more. Clearly thunderstorms in the winter months are a rarity but they do happen and are frequently more likely across coastal areas. This brings me onto this week. Currently a strong set of occluded fronts are pushing NE through England and Wales before stalling across Eastern Scotland, bringing a risk of flooding here. Behind the second occlusion which is now crossing the Midlands the parent low pressure system is likely to generate heavy showers as lapse rates increase markedly. For this time of year the CAPE values being shown around the coastlines are fairly impressive. CAPE and LI for midnight tonight and 12:00 tomorrow TT index is often a good indication of storm strength. The TT values being shown here would indicate that thunderstorms would be severe, however with only limited shear and CAPE not that high I am not sure severe storms can be expected. Lapse rates are impressive though My thoughts are that heavy showers will push into Wales and the SW this morning and become heavier and more widespread across all southern areas this afternoon. Thunder is more likely around coastal areas but may get inland around say the Bristol channel. Tonight any showers inland will tend to lose their intensity but will continue to pepper the southern and western coasts with an ongoing risk of thunder. Tomorrow there will be more showers from the word go in the SW/Wales and these will be pushing NE through England. Again the main thundery element will be around the coastal areas of Wales and the SW but I would not rule out the odd sferic anywhere in the UK south of the Midlands. ELT's will be around -30c to -40c around the coasts and briefly across most of Central and Southern England tomorrow and so hail and lightning is quite likely at times. ELT's at midnight tonight and then 12 o'clock tomorrow So it is certainly worth keeping an eye on. Estofex have indicated the southern and western coasts as a risk area for lightning but I think tonight into tomorrow looks better. I do not anticipate any severe weather although with the recent flooding and the fact that the ground is saturated (even here in Derby everywhere is waterlogged) there is the risk of flooding where showers are coming in one after another. There is the risk of further thundery episodes throughout the latter part of this week too.

So a rare get together on here in the convective thread for the last day of 2015. Have a happy New Year everyone, my eyes will be on the sky until this evening when it will be on food and drink!!!

It is snowing in the centre of Derby and a light covering of about a cm. Not bad for this area in November.

An intense looking squall line passing east/southeast through the southeast Midlands and East Anglia currently with some recent strikes in north Norfolk.

I have just been for a drive out and there are lots of branches, twigs and the odd wheelie bin in the road. I haven't seen any serious disruption although there are power cuts within my postal code apparently. It still sounds wild out there, I do not know how strong the gusts are but I would estimate 50-60mph. For the centre of the country that is strong. Can hear things crashing around outside and the walls are creaking...i dread to think what 70-80mph sounds like!!!

There are some strong gusts outside here now, and they are set to get stronger.

Thunderstorms in California are almost non-existent, but there is obviously sunshine aplenty. I would move to central Florida.

My weather channel app has gone a bit whappy, forecasting thunderstorms all through Saturday night! I really cannot see that happening. Tuesday looking a possibility though at this stage for a few late season Autumn storms.

I may be clutching at straws here but I am seeing the slight possibility of some thundery activity moving into western parts this evening and then transferring slowly south-eastwards through the night. CAPE is nothing special, neither are other parameters but enough for a couple of weak storms I think. Nowhere can I see any mention of storms though so I may be missing something.

I do keep records and agree that this year has been about average. There have not been many good storm days with a rubbish spring but July produced some great ones. The best year for me was last year and that will take some beating. 2013 had some amazing storms but all within 2 weeks in the Midlands, the rest of the season was not that good. 2006 a very good year too. 2007, 2010, 2011 the worst. This is all since 2004.

I mentioned a couple of days ago the disturbed clouds not far from Melton Mowbray, very near the village of Frisby. This thunderstorm that went on to produce a tornado near to Old Dalby just 2-3 miles further north. This is a speeded up video of the storm as it approached.

I was partly considering leaving work early to head down to the SE to storm chase, I am glad I didn't now. That would have been a very costly bustola! Still a chance something could happen but the risk is fading now I think.

I cannot recall any forecasts showing a storm risk outside of the south-eastern third of the UK so not sure why the disappointment from people outside of this area. For those in this area I think the risk is still there, although I would be inclined now to think that the main risk will be to the SE of London, more especially the likes of Kent, East Sussex and possibly Essex. Still the chance of a surprise further north-west but less likely IMO. I wonder if there will be any thunder in Derby

It is a complicated one but I will attempt an amateur go at what I think will happen. There seems a quite good risk of thunderstorms developing in the afternoon and evening under the influence a low pressure system with tropical storm origins (Henri). Current charts are still at this late stage subject to change as the low moving up from the south may not take the exact track which is currently predicted. There is also still some disparagy between models. However, it would appear that the best chance is south-east of a line from about The Wash to Dorset, behind a band of heavy rain which itself could produce disruptive weather. The strongest CAPE occurs in between about 12noon and 4pm around southern coastal regions along with the far SE and East Anglia. Basically it looks like the further south-east you are the better. There is a lot of moisture caught up with this system and so any thunderstorms that do develop could produce a lot of water in a short space of time. There is also around 20-30knts of deep layer shear available which could help to organise storms that do form. Helicity in the southeast will promote a risk of supercells and a possible tornado risk also. Lightning and hail is also a risk despite lapse rates not being that impressive to my eye. Winds gusting over 50mph generally, not necessarily only attributed to convection. Outside of the risk of thunderstorms there is the risk of widespread very heavy rainfall and gale force gusts of wind and so a risk of flooding and wind damage for most of England, Wales and SE Scotland. NW Scotland and N Ireland look to escape it entirely. A slight change in track could completely change this forecast with the thundery weather remaining on the continent if the track is further east/south or affecting more of us if the track is further west/north.

Lincolnshire is storm county, no doubt about it.

Yes, I have just been reading the posts and accounts elsewhere. Strange to think I was most probably chasing the storm that produced the tornado near Sleaford. Pity I didn't get to witness it!!! I have actually seen reports of 4 possible tornadoes today - Northampton (Duston), Leamington Spa, Sleaford and Tewkesbury! There were certainly some intense storms out there.

After finishing work today at 2pm I headed east to intercept storm cells moving north. I had my eye on the most intense of them which was to the south of Leicester, I met it just to the SW of Melton Mowbray, near to the village of Frisby. There were just one or two flashes of lightning at first but it became more frequent for a while as it moved overhead with some intense rainfall. The clouds looked disturbed as well. I need to check back on my footage but it looked like clouds were moving in different directions into the storm cell. I then chased behind the storm northwards up the A607, turning off towards Belvoir. By this time I was getting close to storm county (Lincolnshire) and the storm became more intense. I parked up and watched the storm over in Grantham direction and it was producing frequent flashes of lightning against a dark grey sky with the occasional flash closer. There was a lot of thunder too. I decided to keep chasing it and followed it all the way up the A1 as it continued to produce a good few flashes of lightning and occasional IC's and CG's. I chased it as far as Lincoln but by now the most intense stuff was to the east, close enough to watch but I was not underneath it and rush hour traffic prevented me from chasing it any further. To be honest, I needed to turn back anyway or I would have ended up chasing it all the way to the North sea. Another successful day storm chasing in 2015 and considering the low likelihood of anything organised I was more than impressed

I am liking the looks of this and will be trying it out tomorrow if I can get out and about among the showers after work.