Supacell

Brief heavy shower here with huge raindrops. Looks like I should still be watching the Leicester cell

It is raining here now but not T+L. It looks like the cell over Leicester has died too

My fingers are crossed. I normally go out and chase the storms but it is a rarity to see one bearing down directly on my house

Storm cell south of Leicester is still producing and heading in the direction of Derby. I am hoping it does not die out just before it gets here. Storms from the NW normally get killed by the Pennines, I am hoping that a storm from the opposite direction stands more chance. Skies are a milky/grey colour here now.

Ooh lightning around Northampton and Milton Keynes

And just as you say that, 2 strikes south of Banbury

I am hoping they do turn thundery as they on direct course for here. I am all set to head out and chase but would much rather if they can come to me. Current view outside is clear blue skies with very little cloud to speak of.

Some showers look to be breaking out between St.Albans and Milton Keynes. Could this be the start of it?

Euro4 is much further west than the NMM with the heaviest precipitation. I think if you are anywhere in the Midlands, NW England, Pennines or Wales it is another radar watching day if you want to track, chase or avoid today's possible thunderstorms.

Nice post Costa, I am pretty much in agreement with that. It is going to come down to looking at the charts and skies tomorrow I feel. It looks like a case of low risk in any one spot but if a storm can break out then it could be quite intense. As you say the best areas look to be Midlands, NW England, N Wales and areas around the Peak District and Pennines.

New Met Office warnings out for the central portion of the UK with more emphasis on intense thunderstorms but also highlighting the low probability: "Whilst the majority of places within this warning area will see a dry and very warm Saturday with a good deal of hazy sunshine there is a very low likelihood of isolated intense thunderstorms developing during the afternoon and evening. Please be aware that if these occur they are likely to be associated with torrential downpours as well as frequent lightning and hail leading to disruption to travel, outdoor activities and potentially flooding or temporary power disruption. Some very localised strong and gusty winds are also possible." http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/

It is too soon to make a sound judgement yet but on current models I am in agreement with you regarding Saturday. GFS seems to have the main risk being around Derby/Stoke and northwestwards. The risk of storms carries on through Sunday and well into next week too. I live not far from the A50 so it would be a good route for me to chase on if models stay the same.

I have an eye on the weekend and if things turn out favorable at a time I am free then I may head out for a chase. At this range I am not getting too excited but I cannot deny the potential is there.

Drove through that line of heavy showers as they passed between Heanor and Derby. No thunder but plenty of hail and sleet then snow which had provided a slight covering in places. Temperatures fell from 6c to 0c as I drove under the shower! Some nice looking photogenic clouds and also a rainbow. Classic April weather.

Check out the storm pushing north into Evesham!

Yet again work is done for another day. Things looking rather different than this time yesterday with showers erupting at quite a rate to the south of here in a line from Mid/South Wales to East Anglia. They are heading very slowly northwards too so fingers crossed a storm can get here. If not I may decide to chase but unsure whether to intercept the storms around Northampton or the storms near Tewkesbury.

Right that is work done for another day. I haven't missed much so far around here but am now watching that shower south of Ellesmere in Shropshire. It looks heavy and is heading in my direction slowly.

I am guessing here but I would say it is a mixture of wind convergence along with the last shreds of heat from the days heating. Now that the sun has gone down and the land is cooling I expect the showers and storms to decay, there are already signs of this with no lightning for about half an hour. I usually find that storms which have developed as a result of solar heating can hang on for a short while into the evening. Just as I post that reply there are two more strikes between Banbury and Northampton. I still expect the showers to fade now though. It's a pity as they just didn't quite reach Derby today.

Kicking off again with lightning to the NE of Cirencester. Some very well scattered heavy showers across South Wales and the West Midlands.

I wonder if the showers around South Wales can make it into the West Midlands before losing intensity as the sun goes down. I doubt it but if they do then I may get my first chase of the year this evening.

Looks quite remarkable for early to mid April. Great synoptic though with an area of low pressure stuck down over Biscay scooping up ever warmer air from the warming continent (for the southern half of the UK at least).

Unfortunately I think anyone west of a line from Brighton to The Wash will struggle to see much this evening now. I think a better chance for us tomorrow but that means I will be stuck in an office and won't be able to get to really see it. Never mind, a nice surprise for some in the SE and soon EA will join in too with a lot more than I expected.

I think it is more because they are elevated and so not affected by the sea. That would also explain there speed despite very little wind to blow them along.

We have landfall around Newhaven. I am hoping something may get as far inland as here... you never know with the speed they are travelling and the abundance of deep layer shear. Strike north of Havant too.

The cells are moving quickly.