Supacell

Saw some distant flashes at around 2am last night from the storms that broke out between Gloucester and Hereford but other than that a quiet night for me. I managed about 2 hours sleep overall in the car. Awaiting the mornings model runs but currently my eyes are on Somerset from around midday. I'll be getting a strong tea and a fry up first though :-)

Probably a bit far now for me to get. I am south of Swindon pinning all my hopes on the cell north of Southampton :-)

It is actually heading gradually in the direction of Swindon. I am keeping a watch on it and if it shows any signs of intensification I'll get on it.

I'm still out and about, not far from Swindon now. I'm thinking there is not much point going home. May get a room for the night so I am well placed for anything that may happen tomorrow

A bit of a wasted journey today. The Bristol storm was no more than a mass of rain with the odd flash. It looks like the best storms of the day go to Mid Wales. Time to head home in a somber mood. Hopefully better luck next time.

Now sat just near to Ross on Wye. Come on Bristol cells fire up!!!

Currently just sat north of Gloucester. 21c and lots of sunshine. I am keeping my eyes on those showers over Wiltshire. Also using the new V7...awesome!

I finish work at 1pm tomorrow and it is looking increasingly likely that I will be heading in a SW direction afterwards

An interesting 48 hours coming up I feel. It is a difficult one to call as there are still big differences between the models. For example, the 06z Euro4 has only the extreme SW and west of Wales affected by showers tomorrow, whereas the GFS has a wide swathe of showers and storms breaking out from London to Wales. Arpege is interesting with a feature running into the SE from the continent tomorrow night. The Netwx version of the NMM shows similar to GFS. A lot of agreement on showers moving into the SW this evening and overnight but CAPE is rather weak until around the middle of the day tomorrow. Problem with these overnight showers is the chance of leaving behind residual cloud which could hamper the chance of homegrown showers, very much the story of storms in the UK a lot of the time. The CAPE values being shown on GFS are based on a temperature of around 18-19c which will require some heating by the sun to achieve.

I was chasing across Lincolnshire on the 28th June 2012. The rain was unreal, the heaviest I have witnessed with lots of flashes of lightning. Nothing of interest for here this weekend but I may have to take a trip down towards the SW if it looks good for Friday/Saturday.

To start with I am heading towards Grantham. It is a good place to get routes N, W, E and S. I will make another decision when I get there. Just waiting for a friend who I am taking with me for their first storm chase and I will be off.

Ok, no problem... things sometimes come across different to how they are meant when typed. The first lightning strike of the day for the Midlands just near to Rugby. Hopefully setting up to meet me in Lincolnshire.

Probably nothing a lot of the time, but something some of the time. The observation made by Stormguy is useful to people who are wanting to know what conditions are like from the ground. I understand you do not like thunderstorms but most people on here enjoy storms which is why this particular forum exists... lets allow people be excited about storms on a storm forum without responses such as this which read as rather coarse.

I am thinking I may head east. Although GFS seems keen on the highest CAPE being further west it is clearly not doing much. I am hopeful that wind convergence setting up over Lincolnshire may help to bolster the showers as they head towards the east coast.

Things aren't ramping up as much as I would like across Wales and western England. I am hoping it gets a bit of a kick in the next hour or two before the showers start to get here.

First lightning strikes detected NE of Plymouth.

My plan was to chase today but it seems some forecasts favor the west whilst others favor the east. Wind convergence looks stronger further east as does DLS but CAPE looks stronger further west. I think I will await the 06z!

Encouraging forecast from Estofex if it is storms you want: ... France, UK, Ireland and Scotland ... Scattered to widespread diurnal driven DMC occurs beneath the base of the upper trough. 400-800 J/kg SBCAPE and 10-15 m/s DLS (especially along the periphery of the trough) support strong thunderstorms with marginal hail and gusty winds. An isolated large hail event is possible and also an isolated tornado/funnel event due to augmented LLCAPE. A general decrease in coverage and strength of thunderstorm activity is forecast during the night although isolated thunderstorms may occur over coastal or offshore areas. www.estofex.org

I wonder if the storms coming across the Channel will survive over land once they get here? They look to be heading directly for the East Sussex/Kent coastline and on this track will likely head into East Anglia eventually.

Showers and thunderstorms will be rather hit and miss tomorrow but your area looks to be placed in the risk zone along with a good proportion of England, Wales, Scotland and Western Ireland. Despite this broad risk zone I think a lot of places could miss the showers due to them being hit and miss and also slow moving. The instability (CAPE up to 700-800 j/kg on GFS charts) is there and so the showers that do develop could turn thundery. Steep lapse rates and cold air aloft could also lead to some of the showers producing hail and GFS shows hail of 1-2cm in diameter towards the south and west of the country. The fact that showers and storms will be slow moving makes chasing easier but could also lead to some places getting quite a deluge where others get nothing.

Day 1 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 21 May 2016 - 05:59 UTC Sun 22 May 2016 ISSUED 09:28 UTC Sat 21 May 2016 ISSUED BY: Chris Scattered showers are likely to turn heavy and thundery across Ireland and into parts of Britain during the afternoon on Saturday. Cold air aloft and afternoon surface heating will allow Surface to 500mph lapse rates to reaching into the lower 40s across Ireland, where the most frequent and widespread lightning is likely to occur during the afternoon. Lapse rates are less across Britain, but CAPE values of 300-500j/kg could allow for a few showers to turn thundery there in the afternoon. Saturday evening and overnight a plume of unstable air will move out of France pushing an area of showers and thunderstorms northeastwards. There is still a lot of uncertainty about the track of these storms, and it appears most of them will stay offshore, however it is close enough to include a risk. It should be noted that if these storms do move across Kent and up the east coast of East Anglia they would likely require an upgrade to SLGT as they could be quite electrically active. The situation will be monitored later this afternoon and through the early evening. http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/ ---------------------------------- A very close call this evening and into the night across the far SE and the east coast of EA, as per the forecast from Chris at Convective Weather above. As is usual in these situations it is going to come right down to the wire with the radar probably coming in very useful as we go into the evening. It is worth noting that most forecasts I have seen show this as being a close but no cigar situation but the very slightest westward shift from what is forecast would put the very southeast of the UK into the game. If it does miss then those on the SE coast of Kent and the east coast of EA could well still see the distant flashes.

I predict an eastern Kent clipper tomorrow evening/night. We will know better in the morning when we can compare the position of the cold front to forecasts and ascertain if it is moving slower, faster or the same as predicted. If it can slow down it may allow for some quite potent storms or an MCS to move north from France and affect more of the SE. For my part of the country, and for the vast majority, it is Sunday which is the day of interest this weekend. However, our local forecaster says it will be mostly dry bar an odd heavy shower. BBC graphics do show it being mostly dry over the central slice of the country, but the GFS does not agree with this as it shows numerous showers developing and lasting well into the evening too. I will await the Euro4 in the morning as currently can only see to 12z on Sunday.

BBC mentioning the possibility of some thundery showers breaking out late on in the south east tomorrow evening. This would tie in with the NMM charts from the Netweather Extra suite which appears to indicate an area of CAPE moving from France into the SE of England. However, the GFS which was showing this same set up earlier in the week has appeared to move away from this scenario, instead showing a narrow miss as storms remain over the other side of the Channel. NMM on the left and GFS on the right, both showing MLCAPE for 9pm tomorrow evening: The Euro4, which I have found to be quite accurate so far this year, shows what looks like a Kent clipper. So, for those who live in the SE, possibly another one of those watching the radar and willing the storms across from France scenarios. Clearly a few more runs between now and then so plenty of opportunity for the models to fall into line and sing from the same hymn sheet (hopefully the NMM hymn sheet). For the greater proportion of the population (and myself) I am currently looking at Sunday with quite widespread CAPE being shown by the GFS. With a forecast of sunshine and showers I would expect some of these showers to grow into thunderstorms, but with the current uncertainties I wouldn't be placing my bets quite yet.

There are a lot of heavy showers breaking out now from N London across the East Midlands with some intense precipitation cores, but still no lightning.

I wonder what will be left of the storms by the time the Channel has Dunkirk... ing the c**p out of them.