Wingman Blue

Agreed, winter hasn’t finished here yet, still some lying snow, three days of snow in the morning, melt in the afternoon. The 180m asl clearly helps. This was yesterday morning but the two previous were similar.

The weather, like the models, is all over the place. I guess the models are trying to play whack-a-mole and not having much luck. Going forward the wind, as always, will turn borderline snow into icy drifts but as always, it’s location, location, location. I would say it will be the end of the week before the models get a handle on this, but in the meantime, enjoy!

Be careful what you wish for! With FI currently at 24h does anybody know whether it’s washout or whiteout?

Really? Personally, with the models looking like they’ve been programmed by that chap from Imperial, at what point does FI extend past 24h. ?

The models have been on the home brew scrumpy again. Looks like FI is now 48hrs!

The Monday morning temp for my location - 0•C will be met in a couple of hours and it’s overcast. if anything it’ll be colder than these charts over the next couple of days.

The overall trend appears to be holding, despite the daily fluctuations. This is impressive, and whilst anything beyond 96 hours could be as right as wrong, we appear on track for a wintry few days. Enjoy, you coldies!

The most believable model since the last pulse of the SSW.

Currently it’s pointless looking beyond Wednesday, F1 is at about 96h. Snow, wait till the chap thirty miles upwind reports it and hope it doesn’t deviate. Too many times I’ve watched snow banks on the radar to see them veer away at the last minute. Where Will the battleground be and when? My assessment is a line from North Kent to North Wales but it could be next Wednesday or thereafter. The further forward, the variables multiply.

Take 1983-2008 out of the equation and the picture looks different. The cycle has now changed to a colder edge, snow hasn’t gone forever. As for the here and now, the overall trend has been remarkably stable, despite the MJO and the SSW down wellings for a good fortnight or so. Will the trend change next week? Possibly, but even Atlantic air is going to cross a relatively cold landmass even before it encounters a Northerly blast. I sense there will be theatre before dross.

Well the good news is that the snow’s already…. About an hour ago it snowed in Phoenix Arizona with the snow line down to 2,000 feet (600m)! But now the models are settling down it is noteworthy how we’re still seeing a dominant northerly for the next 96 hours at least. Snow showers and a bitter wind over the weekend? Let’s see what next week brings.

Snow showers, perhaps.

For those wanting snow, deep snow, the question must be, ‘where is the moisture coming from’? A northerly may bring deep cold but even Arctic air coming south across a relatively cold sea is unlikely to bulk up. Wind too, plays it’s part. 1947 was especially memorable because of drifting, rather than a long spell of snowfall. 1979 was cumulative, snow, melt, ice, snow over ten weeks or so. Tomorrow/Friday should give us an idea about the first half of next week.

Snow+continued cloud cover = cold Snow+Clear Skies = melt

Yes, there’s probably ensembles out there that show the exact pattern of a week tomorrow but if anyone can identify it they’re a better man ( or woman) than me. Too much volatility is like a drunk driving in a blizzard, until the models sober up it’s pointless second-guessing where we’re heading. As I said yesterday, it’ll probably be Thursday before we can take a stab at plotting the week after next, whether you’re a coldie or not, playing whac-a-mole with the models will only give you a coronary! Watch Love Island or build an Airfix kit or something! See what Wednesday pub run brings….

So the second phase of the SSW is what, today, tomorrow and this would take at least five days to factor in, it’s hardly surprising that a) any cold surge is delayed, and b) the models are scratching their heads. What do we reckon, it’ll be the first week of March before the models get a grip? In the meantime we just wait, can’t see any clarity till Thursday at the earliest.

Been following this site now for over five years. Mods, please forgive this chart-free post but just wish to show how cold the evening before BFTE at 180m ASL was just north of Banbury.

-1.6C at first light, 11 hours of frost - more like winter than winter!

Temperature here below freezing now, no gritter (even though there’s a school three hundred metres down the lane) because it’s no longer winter! Still a smattering of snow about. Not untypical for this time of year, I’ve known three Good Fridays when it’s snowed.

3rd lot of snow. IMG_1485.MOV

Now it’s blue skies again!

Mad here! One minute bright sunshine, the next this!

-1.8 C at first light. Snurr from 07.45. Settled almost immediately!

Can’t see it. Not the Express is it?!!

Dammit! Stow-on-The-Wold wins out again…