Wingman Blue

Heat of the day in a mist and fog-free Hornton fractionally higher than yesterday at 4.3•C Gauge dropping, maybe damper tomorrow?

XR managed it!

The Griceland block presses ( not oozes ) south west Christmas Eve into Christmas Day. Cold moves down on a north-westerly track that evening dispensing slight snow until it hits the ‘warm’ air sometime early Boxing Day and then it slows almost to a stop. From that opinion - and it is only an opinion - I would say that virtually all of the Midlands north of my location would not be in the ‘warm’ and wet. And as some on the models board have said, next week looks haywire. Happy lamppost watching to come!

Think you’ve nailed it. Can see the main action on that M50-M69 line, Skeggy to Heads of Valleys. we shall see.

Well put. Probably snow in the. Midlands within the week but where?

personally, I view the models as suggestions, rather than firm predictions. Taking those predictions together and adding observations such as ground and sea temperatures gives me a broad idea of what will happen, though the timing may be a day or two out. As for detail such as actual precipitation, whether snow, hail or rain, my outside temperature will give me a likelihood of whic but not when. Even radar is not more than 80% accurate. As I have said previously, the models are still all over the shop, I believe because the signals are predicting exceptional weather. I may well be very wrong but that is why talk of cold failing doesn’t wash with me, this side of Christmas, if not this month.

Overnight the temperatures rose to 4.2•C, high today of 3.7 These are not average December high temperatures. We won’t know until tomorrow at the earliest what weather Christmas Eve will bring, and as for snow, wait until you can see the whites of their flakes. As far as I can see it, the Midlands is as well placed as anywhere in the British Isles for a dump ( of snow, that is!)

TBH, this ‘winter’s over’ scale of hyperbole is what put me off this site last year. I’m logging off till Tuesday, when things will be clearer. i can’t be bothered hyper-ventilating over every model switch. Back on Tuesday.

I honestly can’t see the Greenland block quickly dissolving. Western Approaches ( that area of sea between Ireland, Wales and North Cornwall is currently only .5•C warmer than the average for two months hence. This roll of the dice still has legs.

Inherent bias. I’ll really stick my neck out and say it won’t deliver as shown. I think the Greenland block will pinch out the warm incursion around the 27th-28th. There’s just too much cold for the traditional Atlantic warm wet.

We had a brief ‘high’ of 3.1.C, now dropped back to 2.8. Last Sunday’s high was 12.1•C Its getting colder, faster…

I’d go with the mean. I can see any ‘warm’ incursion pinched out leading to a line roughly M50-M69 across Southern Britain. North of the line, progressively colder but south of it potentially snowed in. Almost certainly wrong, come the day!

Good morning all! Here in Hornton the cooling continues, the overnight mist disappeared before dawn and a frost crept in… closely followed by freezing fog. Currently now -0.6•C it’s getting colder…

Whilst it’s still too early to call, It won’t settle till past T72. The sheer volatility of the models this past month suggest to me that we’re seeing something the models themselves are scratching their heads over. The last two ‘mild’ interludes this month haven’t shown much effect upon the decreasing warmth on the ground.

Can I remind you of this on the 28th?!

Well, come Tuesday we should have pretty good idea what we can expect. But it currently looks rather cold…

Ground won’t warm up even in strong sunlight - if there is any - till late January/ early Feb. Any rain would turn to snow and ice. 63/79 all over again…

Maybe it’s time to get those portable gas stoves and bottled water in? If this even half comes off, the leccy will fail, sure as eggs.

Wait till Christmas - it’ll have shifted south by then!

Daily high continuing to drop here. Today only 7.2•C. Low cloud - rather than fog - most of the day, damp, drizzly now which will further chill the earth. Models still all over the shop. The final 72Hr approach to Christmas looking good.

Luckily, I can just remember ‘63 and remember ‘78-9 vividly, so I’ve been vaccinated. Really think it’s 72hours before we know for sure, the detail’s exciting but the greater flip-flopping pattern is more informative. Like trying to hit one of those waving targets at the fairground!

On the face of it, another dry, dull day. But the daily high has been progressively dropping as the week’s wore on. 12•C Sunday, 8.5•C today. If it continues at the same rate, by Xmas Eve it’ll be a high of 3.5C. Snow 28th December anyone?

In a nutshell. The models have been flip-flopping for over a month now, we won’t have reasonable certainty until T+72.

One thing I find interesting on this thread, is how some folk will dismiss models whether they deny cold or predict it. Then there are those that get annoyed because not much is currently happening in their area, as if the weather is some shoddy goods they bought in good faith which has now turned out to be rubbish. I’ll stick my neck out now and say we’re getting the calm before the storm. To coin a phrase, “Keep Calm And Carry On”. And be careful what you wish for…

Wow! Many thanks for such a lucid and succinct reply, Kasim. A great explanation of our present state, I think.