[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

About 2C ahead of the curve here in NE Hants. Just reach 26C and MetO had us down for that temp at midday.

[Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives]

I have a couple of questions that hopefully the more knowledgeable members can answer for me.

When the models show 2m readings, are they taking into account local topography to a fine detail or just in broader geographic terms i.e. in a city like Southampton with both built up urban areas and a sea coast does the model average out the temperature across a broad area?

With that in mind, is it therefore possible local readings will go substantially (and potentially dangerously) higher than maxes shown? 

TIA  

[Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives]

1 hour ago, SunnyPlease said:

I remember I got egg on my face with my mates in 2019 when I said London had the best chance of breaking the record and Cambridge/further north wouldn't get hot enough due to simple longer distance=lower heat distribution. Safe to say I was wrong lol.

I do believe though that there is a limit in terms of capability to set heat records the further north you go. Further south always has a much higher chance. It's possible Cambridge (incidentally where I live) could be the hotspot again, but I very much doubt it will be further north like Lincolnshire etc like the charts are showing).

Would the further North have lower chances of setting records because they haven't had as much heat in the preceding days? 

[Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives]

46 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

ECM

2m anomaly chart 

850mb anomaly chart

That is quite the anomaly! Absolutely incredible! Has there ever been such a marked one before or is this more of the potential record breaking  variety?

[Competition: How hot is it going to be?]

On 08/07/2022 at 00:57, Mizzle said:

38.1 Hampshire 17th

Updating mine. I am now going for 40.3 on Monday 18th, Hampshire

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

Beautiful start to the day, 8.15am and 22°C - making the most of more usable temperatures in the garden before it all gets a little unbearable.

[Competition: How hot is it going to be?]

38.1 Hampshire 17th

[Storms and Convective discussion - 1st May 2022 onwards]

1 hour ago, chapmanslade said:

Here is a video from our side of that storm. We are to the west of Limoge and the storm was in between. We just had grumbling thunder from it. The storm developed from nothing to this in just over 2 hours.

Thank you fpr sharing - it's beautiful. My sister returns to UK today and is just hoping no storms are about when she hits the skies! 

The storms there have been magnificent: I have massive storm envy right now!

[Storms and Convective discussion - 1st May 2022 onwards]

Sister in Limoge on her balcony again...with another huge storm for the second night in a row. She is doing a FB live and hopefully has set the link to public as I said some storm fans might want to take a look. 

https://m.facebook.com/sharon.hillboulton/videos/1071676160419986/

 

[Storms and Convective discussion - 1st May 2022 onwards]

My sister is currently watching some great show from her hotel balcony in Limoge...and I am a little jealous!

[Storms and Convective discussion - 1st May 2022 onwards]

Currently enduring post COVID foggy brain and therefore my ability to get my head around meteorological nuances today is somewhat limited. So. I will rely on those more knowledgeable tonight: OH has offered to drive me to the coast if there is a chance of seeing some light shows - so what do you guys and gals think? We'd be heading down Solent way. Is it worth a chance?

[Storms and Convective discussion - 1st May 2022 onwards]

9 hours ago, Nick L said:

An unexpectedly fun evening. Got this great clip of a CG looking towards Aylesbury...

 

 

Great capture...and so enjoyed that you left the excitable soundtrack: I get all shouty and excited too, so much so OH edits out the sound

[Storms and Convective discussion - 1st May 2022 onwards]

Just hit rain now in Fareham as we head to the Solent - lightning flashes all over the place, rain getting heavy.

[Storms and Convective discussion - 1st May 2022 onwards]

Bit of a late decision to head South tonight and currently driving down M3 with OH. The sky is already being lit up beautifully from the West. 

[Storms and Convective discussion - 1st May 2022 onwards]

I fancy another chase tomorrow, but am limited a bit on distance to travel (I.e. within an hour or so of Fleet). Am looking at Selsey or thereabouts - what are anyone else's thoughts on that choice of location and/or any better suggestions ( I don't know those areas so well).

TIA x

[Storms and Convective discussion - 1st May 2022 onwards]

19 minutes ago, Lance M said:

Quick lunch break post to drop in my pics from last night, which aren't as good as I hoped for...

The pics don't do justice to the ridiculous amount of high-based storms that just kept on spawning from the Channel and their relentless lightning in all directions. Never known 6 hours' worth of near- continuous lightning to occur in the UK in the same place! Missed a lot of epic CGs due to rain, pointing the camera at the wrong storm, changing batteries/settings and the fact I drained ALL of my batteries for the first time ever in one go!

 

Watching from the Solent last night, I have to agree...it was certainly spectacular and for the first time ever we had to head home while the lightning was still active. An amazing night.

[Storms and Convective discussion - 1st May 2022 onwards]

And one more from me, the best capture of the night!!

 

 

 

[Storms and Convective discussion - 1st May 2022 onwards]

Caught a lovely show from the seafront at Lee-on-Solent last night. I love how the lightning reveals the cloudscapes from the blackness.

   

 

[Storms and Convective discussion - 1st May 2022 onwards]

Currently at Lee-on-Solent seafront, watching lightning pulses across the channel from three distinct areas - East, West and directly South.

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

37 minutes ago, Shunter said:

We have an 11:20 flight from Gatwick tomorrow...........hopefully not delayed 

Likely to be some delays with landings/take-offs impacted by wind levels. I am not an expert but did a quick Google search, and it seems than speeds above 35mph can be problematical (depending also on direction).

 

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

Here in NE Hampshire, some unexpected prawn cracker snowflakes. Won't amount to much as it's very wet, but pretty to see, albeit briefly. 

[Model discussion - hunt for cold Christmas period 2021]

1 hour ago, Staffmoorlands said:

December was very dry. The next 10 days already suggest more rain than most saw in December

My garden and young pup would disagree: it's currently looking like a re-enactment of The Somme.

[A Christmas Farewell From Michael Fish]

Thank you Michael. May the weather always be your friend, as you have been to it.

 

[Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown]

2 minutes ago, AltonMatthew said:

Can anyone advise what times model outputs are run. Also what 00z 12z etc mean? 

I have model watched for years and go off the say so of other users, learnt alot in that time but a long way to go for me to transition from forum stalker to poster

I saved this from earlier

 

00z, 12z etc are the times of each run (24hr clock)

[Model output discussion - Christmas approaches]

Does this low in the Atlantic qualify as one that the GFS always makes more of then will actually be reality, as often mentioned in this thread? If so, are we still in with a good shout for improvement?