Zak M

Good GFS pub run tonight (it’s always the pub run!) It tries a northerly into FI but it ends up too far east - impressive NH pattern and uppers to our north though.

@Mapantz I thought I was the only one..

This morning's GFS parallel has a pretty good end to it, with -6c uppers across the majority of the country. Also, what's next? Am I going to be called Zacharias now? I hope not, that's not even my name

Bonkers CFS run as usual this evening. This chart is for Christmas Day - would almost certainly be a white Christmas for the majority. And then the day after... You can see the -18c isotherm clipping Kent!

Well the GFS parallel is showing some snow falling ahead of a front on day 5 with only -2c uppers.. sub-zero dewpoints I would assume?

12z HARMONIE has just come out, and it's quite similar to its 06z run:

Apologies, I just realised that. However, the 12z run of the HARMONIE has just come out, and it's even better, with tons of snow for cenral-southern England!!!

12z GEM is also going for the heavy snowfall across Scotland and the chance of some snow in EA But also favours CS England on Saturday morning I used that model a lot during the summer with upcoming thunderstorm events. It performed pretty well for my area. I'm not sure if it's the same for snow though.

The HARMONIE is showing quite a lot of snow in Scotland and NW England, and another area to the SE near London. Perhaps some snow over the hills of Wales too.

These are the GEFS ensembles for my location (Bedford). Quite a lot of colder options on the table going forward. Plenty are going for -5c 850s too near the end.

12z ECM ends on a positive note with a northerly.

12z ICON shows the snow much further north compared to its other run last night. It will definitely feel chilly on Friday though.

I remember that too... but strangely enough, I am now! It's so busy in here and I'm loving it! The forum makes the run-up to winter even better.

➡ I see the BBC is also drunk and showing me this. Could they be right?!

It's kind of funny to think that some posters were writing off the whole of winter last month! I would pay every single penny to see their reactions to the models tonight, including the EC46. Lots of surprises could be on offer this month and running up to Christmas, including the possible snow event on Friday, and the potential for more cold shots. It's a very promising outlook. So, moral of the story - don't be a numpty!

Wow, it's absolutely buzzing here tonight!!! Must be a sign of things to come, surely? Nice to see that EC46 chart going for a blocked December! The 18z GFS kind of shows the pattern that the EC46 is showing out in FI! I decided to go a step further and tell them that multiple days of December will exceed 25c - the funniest part was that they believed me

Day 9/10 ECM - looks to be some height rises near NE America and SW Greenland...

Pinched from Twitter. Tonight's ECM showing a lot of snowfall for N England and Scotland in 4 days time.. Take charts like this with a pinch of salt though. They will always chop and change.

Central Russia Title translates to 'Incredible snowstorm hits Russia, Krasnoyarskiy Kray! Mountains of snow'. Uploaded yesterday so this was probably quite recently.

P10 has a potent northerly pushing our way.. look at those uppers!

Here it is Owen!

The GFS parallel has gone a bit bonkers. -8/-9c uppers reaching S England And a lot of snow for lower levels of south and east England Absolutely ridiculous run!

GFS control run is very similar to the GFS op - which one do you think is more drunk? Also checked the ECM 500hpa anomalies. High pressure near Greenland and Scandi with low pressure wedged between them most of the time is a good thing if it's cold you're looking for - and that's exactly what the charts below show: ECMWF Forecasts WWW.ECMWF.INT I remember checking these back in mid-November when it showed a chart similar to the two charts posted above for the first week of December, so these are performing quite well at the moment. I think it's pretty much guaranteed that next week will be colder than average, with plenty of frosty and foggy mornings on offer, and some snow to higher ground. I still remain positive for December and January in terms of snow... I'll be very surprised if we don't get at least one day of widespread cold and snow this winter as we are heavily overdue! Saw this on Twitter a few hours ago - BBC Weather going for a couple of days of snow over Princetown (Dartmoor) with maxes at only 3-4c on one day - bare in mind that the BBC use a mixture of the GFS and ECM: But, you should also bare in mind that the BBC always over-eggs whatever symbols it's showing. This was from early August this year - I'm still waiting for my 72 hours of constant lightning. So, I said, there's a chance of some colder weather next week, with some snow likely over higher ground in the south, and potentially to lower levels in the north.

18z GFS gets the -8c isotherm reaching as far south as Cambridge on day 10 -

The 18z GFS looks like the best run this evening, and is showing sub-7 daytime temps for days 8 and 9. I reckon that there could be some snow down to lower levels in northern areas, while southern hilly areas could also see a chance of snow in this run, and potentially sleet too, to lower levels. ❄ However, this is the pub run, and it's also Friday night, so it's most likely drunk and will probably disappear the next morning...