Gray-Wolf

Well we're on the eastern side of the MetO warning so I'm hoping we get a few T storms trundling around us? Will keep folk updated should we see some develop & travel up our way

Just watched them 'flood proof' the old opening to the old bridge......all hands to the breach in fact! It can't be for the slight rain we've been having so are we expecting the fringes of tomorrows storms to dump enough rain for it to cause issues big enough for them to throw so many resources at this weak spot in our defences here in 'Royd?

If I'd 'invested' in the race I might? But then, like Jehovah, I might also despair and seek to expunge a good 'Goldilocks Zone' planet of its destructive nuisance!!!

Hi GS! With the current predictions of a high end Global temp year, even in the absence of an El Nino, I have concerns of the impacts such might have on the melt season but also the distribution of N.H. heat over the season that will allow for such a high global Temp? As you know I firmly believe that the post 2012 years (summer/winter) have been a continuation of the conditioning of the ice toward us arriving at a 'season oce pack' across the basin As we have seen the 'drops' in sea ice min record years are not a linear event but 'steps' and so I'm always open to the next year we see such a drop with Nino years hastening such? They spectre of 'non Nino' years challenging global temp records broadens my concerns. Couple that with the impacts Covid-19 is having on our atmosphere & I think it wise to keep a weather eye on development across the basin?

I'm not liking the recent increases in Arctic Sea Ice. To me it speaks of 'Collapse & Spread' of the pack and , if correct, will signal a rapid reduction in ice as the season progresses? The massive temp anoms around areas of the basin must be impacting the coastal ice and so hasten its loss leading to further 'collapse & spread' very early in the melt season

I know covid-19 has everyone's attention but, should we see N.H. temps spike, due to the impacts of reduced industrial activity/air travel, then the tipping points we sail so close to in so many areas will be triggered and when one goes the cascade of impacts it drives will leave Covid-19 looking like a tardy side show (IMHO) Interesting times......

I raise you a United States 'Mega Drought'; US Drought Could Last A Century As We Now Enter A Megadrought, Study Finds WWW.FORBES.COM In the past 1,200 years, the United States has experienced four megadroughts lasting decades to centuries. Now, it increasingly appears that we have...

Garden watered and Water Butt filled........ but the snails are back!

Were there not rumours that Obama was about to tell us all of the craft/visits the Pentagon was 'shielding' us all from back in his second term? Now run with me here (and it is 'just for fun'), if this was a true intention but was stymied by others then why would the Pentagon be now making moves to 'ease us into disclosure'? Well, if we believe the believers then we have been being probed by E.T. for many decades now (or longer?) so 'they', and their advanced science, has a good handle on the Human. In these times of Covid-19 (and all it means to the Planet?) E.T. may well be offering up 'simple (to them?) cures for Humanity so as not to allow the Planet to 'Crash and Burn' (economically) due to the lockdown the virus demands.... Before E.T. can appear we need to be eased into the knowledge that; A/ E.T. is real B/ World Govt.'s know and are in (and have been for decades?) communication/partnership with them Whadya think? Is E.T. about to save our Bacon???

Coupled with the polar plunges (on the far side of the H.P. we've been enjoying?) that have taken all the fruit blossoms not a good year so for them!

seeing as folk are talking about a 75% chance of seeing a global record warm year there may be plenty of energy waiting in the oceans/atmosphere? The move toward rapid forming ,high cat number, extreme stalled rainfall totals it may be quite a horrid year for those around the Atlantic basin? Again I'll be keeping an eye of early recurve Cape Verde's and how close to the Med. they get before weakening. IIRC 05' saw 3 such beasts and this season promises to be as active as that year and, to me, the more that form early the more chance of the early recure occurring (IMHO)

75% chance of a 'Record Warm' global year and then this in April;

Meteorologists say 2020 on course to be hottest year since records began | Environment | The Guardian WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM Global lockdowns have lowered emissions but longer-term changes needed, say scientists With a record breaking Atlantic Hurricane season being forecast we look to be in for a bit of a Summer methinks!

earth :: a global map of wind, weather, and ocean conditions EARTH.NULLSCHOOL.NET See current wind, weather, ocean, and pollution conditions, as forecast by supercomputers, on an interactive animated map. Updated every three hours. I take it we can call it a day for the 2019/20 PNJ? It appears to have been a very gentle 'wind down' ? ( and from one of the strongest PNJ's we've ever measured?) See you all again for the 2020/21 PNJ!

Not so much a 'clathrate gun' but more a substitution of our Fossil fuel GHG forcings with a natural, and growing?, forcing that stymies any attempts on our part to bring down/reverse that forcing? We may well be seeing the 'dirty side' of our polluting dramatically impacted by Covid-19 but will we see any reduction in global CO2/CH4 by the time this summer is done? We were told , 2 years back?, that the growth in CO2 levels that year were part due to outputs from the far North/permafrost regions and I see no reason why such an input would 'reduce' but rather see increased melt of the region leading to ever greater breakdown of the 'stored' biomass there?

Methane Emissions Hit a New Record and Scientists Can’t Say Why - BNN Bloomberg WWW.BNNBLOOMBERG.CA Fossil fuel production and agriculture may be causing the acceleration in pollution levels. With the addition of the 'record plumes' recorded by Semiletov in October I'm beginning to wonder if all the claims that the 'Methane time Bomb' cannot be real are similar to the "There will be NO Global pandemic" claims from in here in late Jan/early Feb?

Agreed! Not just the arrival of any 'hidden warming' that we should be seeing but has been 'masked' by the flip side of our polluting but also due to the impacts 'warming ' has across the pole? If we think of the flip from reflecting over 90% of incoming energy to 'accepting' over 90% of that energy means every square meter opened up this way has a 'thermal impact'? Then there's the GHG's being increasingly measured being released as permafrost melts and we see CH4 and CO2 enter the atmosphere for the first time there in millenia.....

When we saw the first 'QBO fail' folk would not believe it as it was outside of their model for 'How the World Works'..... now it's failing again...... Still , looks like our F.W. will be benign this year? Full steam into Summer I say!

I had kind of hoped for a benign Final Warming myself! I could do with a long hot Summer ahead (plus plenty of evening/night Storms?) lockdown or no!

Being part of the global 'ground zero' for the formation of 'funnel clouds' (along with Netherlands/N.France/Germany/N.Italy?) I'd be pretty amazed if increasing extremes did not reflect on the size/strength of 'Funnel Clouds' so bringing them closer to producing Tornadoes on the ground? First I think we will see increases in sightings of Funnel clouds/Water spouts as 'conditions' evolve toward those required for tornadoes to form?

The USA has pulled all EPA monitoring of pollutants produced by Industry As the rest of the planet sees their lowest 'Global Dimming' for decades the USA may see local upticks in the impacts of 'dimming' due to increases in the causes. Rivers & Oceans will also see impacts as controls are 'relaxed'....... back to the oil slicks with impunity and Fish in Rivers dying en-masse..... There must be a reckoning when this is all over!!!

I think we will get to see our own '9/11' impact from the drop off in air travel before we even look at the impacts industrial Nations locking down production will have in 'Global Dimming'? Remember .back in the mid noughties NASA put the impacts of 'Global Dimming' as halving the temp rises we were due from the GHG forcing..... that would be quite a 'bump' to see on our temps? Sadly the USA have dropped all EPA 'measuring' of industrial pollution and are allowing 'in house' measuring of dangerous outputs to also lapse....... I expect many communities there to relive the blight of heavy industry/oil production we were accustomed to in the 70's with river pollution wiping out fish numbers and ocean contamination from rigs no longer 'dealt with'...... Back to the Arctic, low solar and low pollution warns me of high losses and a permafrost on fire (as we saw in 2012?)

Lack of pollution from the industrial shutdown and drop off in air travel will lead to clearer skies so warmer surface temps meaning drier top layer of permafrost and so far more flammable? One strike of the 'ever more common' high latitude CG's and away we go! As we saw over winter in mid lats when the arctic air is pegged in the basin (and so not 'polar Plunging' and producing snowy 'spectacles' for deniers to comment on/take into the House of Rep's?) we are appreciably hotter with many daily max temp records falling (over all three of the 'Winter' months?). I see no reason for this trajectory to suddenly be halted esp. with the High Pressure propensity we appear to be seeing in our location? So far as the ice in the basin is concerned is it not predominantly FY ice and so as 'salty' as ice can be (i.e. and easier melt than 'aged' ice?)? Is the ice not thin and fragmented already? (meaning the amount of surface area to 'mass' favours faster melt out?) Are we not seeing ice transported at enhanced speeds due to its 'distribution of smaller floes'? IMHO Covid-19 will do nothing but augment our AGW woes this summer by primarily reducing Global dimming dramatically over the period of the Global industrial lockdown/air traffic grounding

Sorry to break it to you Don but no one gets out of any of this alive? It's a one way trip so you'd better make the most of it!

I think the drop out of pollution from asia augmented by the drop off in air travel might lead us to a surprise low this year as land snow cover crashes as augmented temps impact the coastal regions around the basin? I worry that both the mid latitudes and the Arctic Basin will see some extreme impacts driven by a number of competing factors (low solar/warm winter/high export from Fram etc) all augmented by the 'rebound' that cutting out the levels of 'Dimming' we normally see across our hemisphere? As for 'soot'? Soot will continue to accumulate on ice surfaces even as the ice melts so lowering Albedo day after day so 'milking' the incoming solar ever more leading to a more rapid melt out? Should the permafrost region see early warmth then the drying of the top layer leaves it open to wildfire which , in some cases, heads into the dead vegetation itself keeping the fire going underground. I know we have other things taking up our attention at the moment but we should not forget the 'slow Motion' catastrophe that is climate change/shift..... one tipping point too many crossed and we enter a climate cascade that could bring some elements of change up to the speed of Covid-19's impacts!!