Gray-Wolf

Is Henry being a bit naughty with its 'track'? Reading NY might be in line for a visit?

My goodness these cells are growing mighty fast! I'm on the edge of one and the raindrops are HUGE!!! It'll be fun by late afternoon I reckon but I think all slightly East of me here on the Border of East Lancs/West Yorks?

Well here we go! Few Rumbles from over Huddersfield way!

Eee it's warm out there!!!

I take it the German (and others) flooding will see the same 'rapid attribution' of the events there?

I can confirm that! So horrible seeing others suffer as we have but the death toll is shocking! at least our events didn't include that awful side of things? 'Things' can be replaced!

Just a reminder that we have 'permafrost' that holds a lot of GHG's across this region...... Arctic Circle land temperature reaches 48C during ‘persistent heatwave’ in Siberia WWW.INDEPENDENT.CO.UK It comes month after scientists called temperatures in region ‘mind-boggling’

Ice losses over the weekend seem to have picked up momentum have they not? There's some horrible looking ice in the basin a.t.m. & either heat or tumbling of the ice via a nasty low will cause us major losses from here on in

Another hint at a more active Solar cycle to come? The Termination Event | Spaceweather.com SPACEWEATHERARCHIVE.COM June 10, 2021: Something big may be about to happen on the sun. "We call it the Termination Event," says Scott McIntosh, a solar physicist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), "and it's...

A Massive Methane Reservoir Is Lurking Beneath the Sea - Eos EOS.ORG Scientists have found a methane reservoir below the permafrost seabed of the Laptev Sea—a reservoir that could suddenly release large amounts of the potent greenhouse gas.

Well that kicked off! The front edge of the rain turned out to be soft hail and , after the worst had passed over, we got a big c2g over the Keighley Rd (across the moor) The rain renewed its intensity and we got 11 more flashes according to Blizortung.Org 2 days out of 2 now!

Banging over Blackburn way and that big one from Salford bearing down upon us here!

Any news from Bolton/Bury about the flashy bangy thing headed our way in the Calder Valley?

Sea Level Rise Due to Antarctica's Ice Sheet Melting 30% More than Previously Estimated: Study | The Weather Channel - Articles from The Weather Channel | weather.com WEATHER.COM Rising sea levels threaten island nations and coastal cities that harbour more than two billion people across the globe. - Articles from The Weather Channel | weather.com

We've been treated to what 'average seasons' now leave the pack like come Sept but what of the 'rogue' years like 07' /12'? I worry that most years we are only 3 or 4 weeks away from melt out by the time refreeze begins. Pump in that energy over a freak year and the ice will just go (probably in late Aug?) Since 2012 the continued degradation of Arctic ice has not halted. The floes are small and faster to form, the percentage of ice that is 1st year ice continues to increase (weakest ice) whilst older ice fails. We lost the last 'paleo cryogenic' ice in 2010 so how much 10 year old ice now sits in the basin?, 9 year old ice?, 5 year old ice even???

Agreed BFTV! Back in the late noughties I began noting the seasonal stress on the ice at Spring tides, I was assured it was a normal occurrence. This 'denaturing' of the pack , early doors, means that the ice 'gluing' the floes back together is very weak and fails quickly once melt pressures arise. We then get mechanical weathering of the floes as the crash into one another chipping off edges/further shattering floes Small floes move much faster than large floes This year it is not the 1st year ice giving way but the old ice to the N of Greenland and the CAB directly (our best ice?) I do not like it Sam I am, I do not like this drift and scram!

I know it's very early doors but I'm already not liking what I'm seeing in the Arctic? We've all seen the animations of seasonal ice loss and just how much Fram takes out of the basin This year we seem to be shipping 'good ice' at quite a rate so stretching the ice from the feed areas (CAB/N.Greenland?) Will this lead us to a more vulnerable pack in these 'feed regions' allowing more open water, earlier on in the summer, across the areas that normally hold onto our best ice over summer?

I take it that the Barrentsz gains are losses in the making BFTV?

I seem to recall that when the polar night jet becomes misshapen (or bi-lobal/tri -lobal?) sections can find themselves in sunlight as the lobes loop over lower latitudes so meeting the returning spring sun up at their altitudes? I think Feb 2014 saw a sizable hole over the UK (IIRC?)

Well that shower over Bradford (& slowly lumbering our way?) has been giving red & pinks on the MetO rainfall radar since 5:30 pm (ish) and so we might get full water butt out of it by the end of this bunch of showers (once they get here!)

Enough rain to damp the ground but not put anything in my water butt More showers to come by the looks though so I might be spared watering from the tap!

double post!

Thanks for that iapennel! I suspect 'aspects' of what you sketch out are already becoming increasingly established across our hemisphere and the 'weather patterns' they generate ever more common?

Is ENSO running a fever, or is it global warming? | NOAA Climate.gov WWW.CLIMATE.GOV The tropical Pacific Ocean is warming up! What does that mean for the way we measure the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)? Time to start looking at relative sea surface temperatures.

Maybe time for the 2021 Hurricane season to be opened? Above-average Atlantic hurricane activity again expected in 2021 PHYS.ORG The year 2020 saw the most active hurricane season on record and marked the fifth consecutive year for above-average activity. A University of Arizona-led hurricane forecasting team predicts another year ...