Gray-Wolf

One of these years we'll get an atmospheric river' over us hitting a 'Beast from the East' type air mass under it Todmorden, the other week ,saw 120mm of rain.....had that of been snow........

The 'works' have created a perfect 'cobbled' bank for Fly Fishing from (& access into the channel?) for Son and I! We have some deep water channels to go at, some areas of rapids plus the deep whirlpool where the tributary meets with the main channel! I reckon we can now go after both Brown Trout & Grayling 50m from Home! (& to our hearts content!!!...... ) there's always a Silver lining if you look hard enough!

This was mooted as the 'result' of our works in every meeting I attended It seems logical if you allow twice the volume through a stretch of river than previous then all ports downstream will struggle with the extra volumes that's being exported? Sadly the works were near overtopped in last years flooding but it appears, now, that this was due to the amount of works still needing completion forming extra 'dams' from Hebden to 'Royd? Now the heavy pulses of persistent rain have not troubled the gauge here in the way it has downstream? I'm sorry you've inherited our problem Fazza!

Our Top flood warden just posted on the New Bridge here in 'royd; "I have checked the level of water in the river at the new bridge site in Mytholmroyd and is interesting to see the difference widening the channel has done. It looks like it has done the trick but we will see over the years to come how it performs in reducing the Flood Risk for the village." I tell you if we ever get an event to overtop us here at the bridge site there will have already been catastrophe's a plenty downstream of us!!!

I am getting reports now from as far downstream as Mirfield noting faster surge & higher totals over recent months (the bridge went live in early summer and a huge chunk of river bank removed so as to open up the second span of the new bridge so Volume of channel both before and after the bridge is possibly 3 fold on what it was?) Hebden seem to be clearing their waters esp. Hebden water where it joins the Calder? Speeding up drainage from Hebden too just beyond our new bridge must surely put more water in the channel downstream compared to when it was constricted? Anyhow, it's their problem now I suppose?

We seem to be coping? The old road bridge ,here in Mytholmroyd, appeared to have been quite a 'pinch point' for the river with areas upstream of us 'backing up' over floody days leading to overspill With the channel widening and the new '2 span' road bridge issues both here and upstream seem much better (including Hebden water where it joins the Calder?) The problem comes when you get downstream of us? If we are pushing greater volumes down channel what happen to sites receiving that greater volume???

As I suspected the channel monitor here (temporary site) does seem to be constantly 'updating' downward the river heights in the forecast section Since yesterday projections have all shot up to over 4m but each update drops the prediction as the 'new data' from the station gets feathered into the programme As you can see by the plot from last night only small increases in River height were noted even though it rained heavy most of the night? Now , even with a big spell of heavy rain ahead, the predicted levels have dropped to below 4m... Phew! it all seems to be working? River level information for River Calder at Mytholmroyd Temporary site - GOV.UK FLOOD-WARNING-INFORMATION.SERVICE.GOV.UK Check your risk of flooding: get current flood warnings, river and sea levels, check the 5-day forecast or use flood risk maps

Walsden (between Todmorden/Littleborough) sounded their flood sirens 2 hrs back. They are not currently flooding but they know it is coming and would rather 'rouse' folk to action than leave it 'till later.... Keep Safe Folk!

The way they've managed the channel, both on the approach to the new bridge and then the exit on toward to other bridge? makes me wonder if they fully modelled the way the River acts once through this huge enlargement in capacity and back into the 'old channel' dimensions? Sure it will 'drop' the River levels on the approach to ,and then under, the two spans of the new Bridge but if that includes 'extra waters' that were being slowed/held back by the channel then it will be fun on the approach to the old Bridge/tributary when all that tries to fit back into the old channel! I guess I'll get to see just how things work over the next 48 hrs!

The Current rains have 'upped' tomorrows peak river level forecast from the Environment Agency to 4.15m (whilst the plot is still on the up & up) I do hope the projections are based on the old river channels performance and not this, as of now, 'untested' enlarged channel!

Maybe you can let us know if our flood works here in the Upper Calder do impact on how fast/how much water you get these days Fazz?

But every hour without rain gives the Moor more chance to drain Paul so these 3 hours of dry might make a big difference to some later? We already have the massed MSM waiting for our latest disaster......I think they're too far upstream & might need to dash to areas further downstream now accepting our 'extra' volumes of water that the flood works mean we can now ship downstream like never before!

My Wife's a 'rain Goddess' Winter Cold......she does things like this if she needs to go out & the forecast is dire! The wind has picked up on the Southern edge of the rain though?

The flood works, now complete in the Upper Calder, might get their first real try out but if we trust the blurb from the contractors prior to the start of the works it should be able to cope with 2015 Flood levels? That said the vultures are already camped in Hebden (BBC News) The works in Mytholmroyd have probably tripled (or more?) the volume the channel here can carry and it only just failed in past flood events? I will, of course, be popping into the garden too check river levels throughout the event & will keep you updated of any developments!

Flooding , in my experience, is not about the hours the event last but the months of filth as the clean up goes on It's the hollow eyes of folk who lost everything yet must struggle on It's the days after all the 'good folk', those providing muscle and hot food/drink, go home and leave you to grieve alone Sadly, If I am correct, we will see many 'first time flooded' along the Calder Valley (downstream of the flood works?) and my heart goes out to all those folk who will go to bed tonight without a thought about what will be hitting them late Tues night!

Since the finally closed the walls where the old bridge in 'Royd was placed I've been waiting for the kind of event that would have have my antenna twitching & I believe this will be it? I will be monitoring both rainfall and river levels through tues/weds! If we're OK then i'll be checking downstream starting at Luddendenfoot & on through to Selby! If we don't cop for it then areas who have not seen defences beefed up may suffer in our stead?

I get the feeling our now completed flood defences will get a good testing on Tues/Weds? We had our 'Valentines floods' last year if you recall (and the army to help out bolster defences for the next depression that came through) but that was due to the works having breaches further up the Valley so this will be a repeat without the breaches May the gods help all ports downriver of us as they will never have seen the volumes abut too be unleashed their way!

Well, for us bordering Gtr M/cr I think we can go to bed & expect green field by tomorrow? We might se 1/2 hr of 'Frontal Snow but the warmth will win out....

Oh well that's alright then? You have looked at the measures of ice Volume passing through Fram in the 70's,80's early 90's haven't you? That there once existed a year round 'Ice Bridge' that hindered ice export? (though 'export it still did!?) Was it the 'Odenn' ice bridge (help me out folks?) That is within MY lifetime In my Dad's lifetime Barentsz was inaccessible even in high summer due to ice conditions (check out the Norwegian Prof, from the late 30's, that attempted such!) Now we see how much ice is even present there to even be exported (never mind conditions 'Common' in the 70's/80's/90's as the Arctic bled dry of paleocryistic ice!!!) C'mon now C.M., it's all stained glass windowed up isn't it? We've done this for over a decade now eh? How are things now (tied global temp record with a 'Super Nino') compared to back then? This was never a 'competition', for some it was a way of warning of what we were seeing occur? (& where than would end up?) That time is done now surely? We 'Warners' were correct to 'Warn'?

Hmmmm......what's forcing this then?..... SpaceWeather.com -- News and information about meteor showers, solar flares, auroras, and near-Earth asteroids WWW.SPACEWEATHER.COM

This isn't good either! Earth may be even closer to 1.5°C of global warming than we thought | New Scientist WWW.NEWSCIENTIST.COM A key measure of the amount of global warming so far has been revised up to 1.07°C, suggesting humanity is even closer to breaching the goal of keeping warming below 1.5°C

This is what folk have to grapple with themselves? That is a rude amount of energy that can now near be relied upon to pour into the Arctic Atmosphere prior to refreeze? It must have some large, but predictable, 'general impacts' on weather/climate around the N. Hemisphere (& then globally) each Autumn/early winter?

What are we supposed to expect when we are told that the Arctic Ocean is now taking up huge amounts of energy each year that then needs shedding before refreeze can begin? We could be looking at a small Niño's worth of energy pouring into the Arctic atmosphere each & every autumn from now on! The last 'Super Nino' was aided & abetted by such a wallop of energy

Bagged a few Geminid's last night! Maybe 13 over a half hour period from 12:15 to 12:45 Pretty objects & certainly 'fireball' like (not just a fast spark but a golden orb)

Hi Jethro! Hope you've been keeping well? You are correct, I do not think the sun's variability gives anything like the forcing needed to calm the Planets warming issues? I think there is more variability in our pollution driven 'dimming' than from the sun's internal variability? (IMHO?) As I feel you very much suspect this news release did bring me a tad of satisfaction after the intransigence of those demanding a 'Maunder like Minimum' over these past decades? That said this 'offset' 22 yr magnetic cycle is something I've been aware of for a few years now and this cycle may well prove how useful a tool it may prove to be for the prediction of cycle strength that this combination of both Solar & Magnetic cycles might prove to be?