Gray-Wolf

Canada just lost 2/3rd of its last 'intact' ice shelf; Canada's last fully intact Arctic ice shelf collapses - ArcticToday WWW.ARCTICTODAY.COM The last fully intact ice shelf in the Canadian Arctic has collapsed, losing more than 40 percent of its area in just two days at the end of July, researchers said...

Didn't expect to see these sharp showers either? 2 loads of washing out and now I'm tied to the rainfall radar 'till they've passed!!! They appear to be slipping by to my E. but it's close!

Some of the 'thickness plots' show sub 1m ice across large areas of the 80N zone? I know solar can penetrate 1m of ice but can temps 'seep through' from the leads in a broken, thin pack? (remember it's 'water' under that ice!)? To me if that 80N plot persists in its 'spike' then I'll be even more convinced that this is an 'ice issue' & not a transient '2m temp' blip as a large WAA passes over the region?

Just noting your DMI80N Tweet BFTV Is it the WAA from the low in Beaufort or have we so much open water beyond 80N that the latent heat of fusion is no longer pegging temps there? As you know that red line heading skyward over the 'pegged' temps of melt season was one of my " Time to worry!" signals!

So we're pulling out a lead on 2012 that will account for the losses that the GAC had in Aug of 2012. If by Aug 2020 has that million lower than 2012 then I think I'd put my money on 2020 taking a new record low at refreeze? But then what if Aug 2020 has its own suite of GAC's to finish the melt season with? There is plenty of open water heating in the ESS for any low to throw ice at and that would certainly deal with a lot of ice even before we think of the potential for losses through Fram? As things stand we edge toward bottom melt season at a record low level of ice and stand to find out just how much of our 'older ice' is really 'older ice' and just how much is 'easy to melt' FY ice welded on to the bottom of a thin skim of older ice.........

Very worrying low for this stage of the season! With what G.S. just posted you can see that any 'change' to the current set up across the basin does not mean the ice will be spared but rather face a new set of melt forcings (be it from export to warmed waters to import if the Siberian heat?) Better just hope Aug doesn't see a decline in pressure and the formation of lows to stir up the last of the ice?

Didn't we record record amounts of input through Bering over the 2007 'record' summer? We have also noted Pacific diatoms (specific to the Pacific) now in the central Atlantic so the 'flow' into the basin from the Pacific is making it around the basin and out through Fram (as well as the odd Grey Whale taking in the sights of the med?) so the import of salinity/temp must also be running at high levels esp. over summer? I know the Beauford has its own 'gyre' (when pressure/winds allow!) and receives a lot of fresh water from the major rivers emptying into the basin so can have quite a 'lens' of fresh trapped over the top of the gyre but is the increase of Pacific waters aiding it to 'mix up' that old mix? In the least the influx must have impacts on the halocline in that region so alter refreeze/melt potentials where the layer is lost/damaged? This is what I've been saying this past decade, no matter the end numbers over melt season the changes to the basin have continued apace! The other concern is just how close certain regions have sailed to full 'melt out' at seasons end? Will it just take that extra 2 weeks of high melt over peak insolation to see some areas 'blink out' come late Aug? Certainly an interesting one folks!

Jaxa 'caught up' and gave us another two century plus losses to add to the ones previous With the same picture remaining will we see even more ice go and major holes open in the central pack over the coming days?

Drought ramping up in frequency in S. America; Six hundred years of South American tree rings reveal an increase in severe hydroclimatic events since mid-20th century WWW.PNAS.ORG The SADA is an annually-resolved hydroclimate atlas in South America that spans the continent south of 12°S from 1400 to 2000 CE. Based on 286 tree ring...

Looks like the U.S. is now in line to see up to 40% of the lower 48 see a period of 'extreme heat' over the coming days/weeks When the forecaster was quizzed about when we'd see 'lower than average temps' again he stretched things out until at least November!!! The U.S. is looking to have a torrid time of summer with higher than average landfalls from Hurricanes and this extended heat wave across the lower 48'...... Watch this space eh?

Yeah, just looking at the plots and another day of big losses, like the last 2, would start to paint out a 'cliff edge' on the plots! It would also eat into the lead 2012 will pull out in Aug when we hit the anniversary of the GAC 2012...... challenge 2012 'without' a GAC???? Sometimes the basin is worth keeping an eye on even for those that have a decades worth of 'Arctic Burnout' under your belts!!! Again I'd caution that this past decade has not seen the 'ice find a new stable level' but rather seen a continuation, year round, of the degradation of the ice and the systems that protect/nurture it!

Well we dropped to 2nd lowest on the JAXA plot today and it looks like we will slip to lowest as we move forward and current conditions across the basin begin to bite (incl. Fram export and the high pressure dome camped across the C.A.B.?) The extreme heat in parts of Siberia looks likely to be drawn over the ice as the H.P. settles in? When I look at 'ice age' comparisons from 2012 to today it confirms to me that even the ice this year will be easier to melt (before you look at fragmentation/drift and the impacts there?) In 2012 we still has a sliver of '5 year+' ice along the north shore of Greenland..... no longer any ice of that age on the plots.... Again I'd caution that 'older ice' has undergone at least 1 'bottom melt' ends of a melt season so will have a much younger 'keel' of ice from the next refreeze season it encountered so all may well not be as it first appears? Time to watch developments a little closer methinks?

We're buried in cloud for the foreseeable.... One peep of them before dawn Saturday morning but otherwise a blank. A real shame as Daughter has been around and she missed my alert last year when we had those stunning displays!

Are we seeing 'lightning' change as we move deeper into AGW? 700-km Brazil 'megaflash' sets lightning record: UN PHYS.ORG The UN's weather agency announced Thursday the longest lightning bolt on record—a single flash in Brazil on October 31, 2018 that cut the sky across more...

1avfter 07' , midst the cheering over 'recovery' we saw the collapse and spread of the older ice into the 'Rotten Ice' prof Barber named. In 2010 (?) we saw the very last of our 'paleocryistic' ice go sp preparing the pack for the kind of drop we witnessed in 2012 ( when conditions arose to suit such losses?) As I said above the lack of 'record lows' this past 8 years does not mean 'change' was not occurring across the basin? Now Mother N. seems to be offering up the kind of conditions to help us see what that 'conditioning' has meant to the basin with regard to melt out/export/evolution of 'open water hot spots' inside the basin to melt transported ice. I'm starting to think I should pay closer attention to the next 2 months of losses/weathers in the basin......

Sun's just about to break through here in 'Royd, you're about 1/2 hr behind us?

Sun's just about to break through here in W Yorks, I wonder how fast the wet ground will dry and just how muggy it'll feel? Feel like there's been some 'forecast drift' from what I was seeing yesterday esp. temps? Avante!

I.O.M .........Enjoy!

Thanks for that BFTV, very telling! How can anyone still be in denial of the massive changes we have been seeing (and the causes?)? As we're finding today it's not just temps we need look at. With both the excessive ozone destruction we've seen over us this year coupled with the loss of some of the 'flip side to AGW' due to lockdown UV levels are set to peak at a record value for us here in the UK (a glimpse of where we would be if we didn't have the level of 'Global Dimming' offsetting some of our current warming?) If folk think the 'costs' of lockdown are humongous maybe they should revisit the 'costs' that this unprecedented Global change will bring with it (both economic and in terms of human lives?)

I'm a firm believer in both 'melt momentum' and that the ice has a 'point of no return' in any one melt season? The past decade, to my eyes, has seen a year on year 'conditioning' of the ice for every easier melting. The evolution of the Atlantification/Pacification of the basin also appears to be a change very difficult to see 'undone' The 'mixing out' of the unique layering of the Arctic Ocean makes it impossible for me to imagine a return to the ice cover of my youth (60's & 70's?) without disastrous changes to the Earth's climate system in a direct opposite way to the forcings we see today This said I'm of the opinion that "When the ice goes it will go very quickly....." and this constant 'conditioning' of the pack has made that an event we can now envisage in a way that we could not in our pasts. A younger pack, a more fragmented pack, a pack with 'faux' aged ice (an old skim with a keel of FY ice below) and ever faster transport coupled with the changes to atmosphere and ocean must surely bring the first ice free year ever closer? I feel the next month will see many folk with concerns for the ice esp. if we see continued 'torching' of regions and potential di-pole to clear out of the ice sat above Fram

Never say never eh? Just a few rumbles and a couple of twilight enhanced flashes to my SW for me last night but today's another day! I hope that our grey clag leaves us open for 'late developers' once everyone else has had theirs? A nice virgin stretch of atmosphere to expand any storms into? (I can dream!)

Well nothing went off here apart from stunning cloudscapes to my SW Sadly the hill to my SW obscured the Todmorden Funnel cloud (Google for the M/cr Evening news story and vid)

Still no height being attained by cells that pop up. Looks pretty explosive on the initial ascent but then they hit 'the wall', go 'poof', and collapse back down..... Looks fun to my SW!!, M/cr/Salford/Bolton,Wigan,Preston all having fun!.....I wonder if their smashing 'the wall' will unzip the atmosphere behind them where there's still plenty of heat up for grabs for any parcel looking to take a trip up?

Good start to the summer storms season with a direct hit on Sat. PM Tracked it in from the other side of the Peak district (Sheff. way?) to here 2 Cells eventually joined just around us as the extra uplift from coming over the Peaks/S.Pennines imparted the extra 'Ooomph!!' Towers to my west currently but not able to grow massive before collapse & decay...... lets see what all this heating will mean later this afternoon eh? The one open horizon I have here is pointed right where any incoming will arise from..... an afternoon of cloud watching awaits!!!

Well we're on the eastern side of the MetO warning so I'm hoping we get a few T storms trundling around us? Will keep folk updated should we see some develop & travel up our way