Optimus Prime
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Posts posted by Optimus Prime
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7 hours ago, CreweCold said:
Thankfully we’re not in early-mid July anymore and 20c uppers won’t automatically translate to widespread mid to high 30s…the nights are longer and the sun is 10 degrees lower in the sky by mid August than around the solstice.
The earth's sea and air temperatures are off the charts ATM (2035 territory?). I think we can turn a blind eye to 20c 'uppers' not delivery very high temperatures this time round.
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Interesting chart concerning the arctic. Appears to be either large pools of surface water appearing above the icecap going by those anomalies or more likely the ice is actually fragmenting and entirely melting, exposing ocean water in areas that wouldn't normally be there. It may also be due to enhancements in the way the model expresses data, as there has been an update recently. But given the astonishing heat content of the NH oceans, I doubt it's a data issue.
Compared to the end of the melt season (September) for some previous years (1991 - 2020 baseline)
2022
2012
2002
1992
1982
1972
1962
This year has to be the turning point towards an ice free summer arctic ? before 2030...-
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13 hours ago, reef said:
Believe it or not its more the other way around. To the 17th Aberdeen Dyce was +0.5C, Carlisle +0.1C and Boulmer +0.6C. Further south, Bedford -0.8C, Benson -0.7C and Pershore -0.6C.
The month so far - in the British Isles
WWW.MET.READING.AC.UKIt is true though the south has warmed, relative to the previous 30 year periods, quite a bit faster compared to the north.
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4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:
It's a very durable pattern for sure..
I'm a firm believer in cycles though and we'll get an extended dry period in the next 3 months or so..
But haven't we just left an extended dry period !!
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15 hours ago, razorgrain said:
Seems we only get extremes in this feast or famine climate so I wouldn't be surprised if it's just persistent heat throughout august to balance out what we've had in July
You mean vastly overcompensating this rather average, wet July?
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3 hours ago, reef said:
It looks like the anomalies have dropped quite a bit with the current more unsettled spell around the UK:
Its still rather warm, but generally no more than 2C above average now for the most part. I guess having a low pressure anchored out to the west stirring up the waters has some good points!
Wonder what the temperature anomaly is (if we have one) to a depth below the surface.
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2010, a very chilly year overall but had a warm sunny June & July. Disappointing August but the summer as a whole was a decent one.
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2 hours ago, Summer8906 said:
I'd say 2014, 2010, 2009, 2006, 1996, 1994, 1993, 1992, 1989, 1986 and 1984 since the start of the 80s were all distinctly good. In recent years I think 2010 and 2006 could be considered outstanding.
June 2010 had some memorably warm, sunny weather in the SE. This June reminds me quite a bit of it in the NW - the weather has been outstanding here since roughly April.
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On 22/05/2023 at 21:19, Weather-history said:
I am seriously questioning just how bad the summers of the 1960s actually were.
Manchester Summer Indices
1960 217 1961 203 1962 197 1963 194 1964 197 1965 189 1966 192 1967 223 1968 215 1969 234
5 of them have an index of at least 200. Compare those values with two horror summers from the 1950s
1954: 143 and 1956: 155
Interesting to note that 5 of the summers of the 1960s were sub 200mm rainfall for England and Wales. In the SE, summer 1961 was just slightly wetter than summer 2003 and the following summer, 1962 was fairly dry.
I don't think the summers of the 1960s overall are as bad as some make out not compared to absolute stinkers such as 1954 and 1956
Yeah. June's for example, at least temperature wise, were actually very decent in the 1960's, averaging 14.6; much warmer than the 1990's at 14.1 and roughly similar to the 2010's.
Be interesting to see the rainfall and sunshine figures for that month and whether or not the decent temperatures were hampered by them.
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8 hours ago, Weather-history said:
Going through the old newspaper archives, sometimes you stumble across a little gem.
Found this from a Staffordshire newspaper from 9th June 1948 that there was still snow from the winter 1946-47 in a Derbyshire cave
Very interesting how the snow, to some extent, managed to survive so far in to the exceptionally warm period that followed .
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7 hours ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:
I feel like this May is a 2012 redux, so I am going for some point during the last week of May bringing us our first 25 Celsius day of the year.
Temperature wise this May is nothing like May 2012 which was much cooler than average until the final week.
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29 minutes ago, damianslaw said:
A mild start to the month then, despite a lot saying its cold, we are only 10 days in as well. Might end up one of those months that ends up quite mild but never especially warm, the cool feeling due to lots of rain, I suspect it is high minima holding the CET up. Conversely high pressure at this time of year espcially overhead produces warm maxes well in the 20s but chilly nights knocking CET back alot but such spells will feel much warmer. A reminder the CET tells you little about conditions and feel on the ground and what happened on a week to week and day to day basis.
Mmm. In the NW it has felt unusually mild and muggy so far.
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15 hours ago, ANYWEATHER said:
Surely the Artic had near or record breaking ice cover this Year of course Satillite era? Also I wonder with the displacement of cold air much further south this Spring why the Artic is having a very cold spring....
Both points are incorrect. It has been a warmer than average spring and sea ice has been well below the 81-2010 mean.
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3 hours ago, Summer8906 said:
Strange how that heat has been persistently stuck in Iberia, when pretty much all of the remainder of Europe has been unseasonably cool as well as rather changeable.
Unseasonably cool ?
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2 hours ago, MP-R said:
Indeed. That’s why the CET falls short of being wholly useful… it only tells half the story, and only ever has. The simple solution: include readings from outside that zone.
Why don't you just check out the regional dataset in this case
UK and regional series
WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UKDownload time-series of monthly, seasonal and annual values. Files can be downloaded in rank or year order.The CET series has been around since the 1600's. It's standardised so it's absolutely right it should be left as is.
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The early - mid 70's certainly were mild with regards to winter (avg is 4.1). Generally speaking due to the run of mild December's.
69/70 - 2.96
70/71 - 4.43
71/72 - 4.93
72/73 - 4.86
73/74 - 5.43
74/75 - 6.40
75/76 - 5.16
76/77 - 3.23
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Interesting projected temperature anomaly for the 5th March;
Exceptional warmth being pumped in to Greenland. Conversely, some very cold air poised to drain south over NW Europe. Not dissimilar to the very start of April 2021.
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3 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:
If this was 1739 and not 2023, I could write this ...
"The past decade has seen very few outbreaks of cold, the winters have been several degrees warmer on average than what was normal just a few decades past. We have not had a really severe winter since 1716, just the 1.1 Januaries of 1723 and 1726 and 1.2 in 1729. Since those, we have only had one month below 2 C (1.9 in Jan 1731) and the past seven winters have all been quite mild like this one."
Perhaps I would have gone on to speculate that we wouldn't see any severe cold again. That would have not been a wise statement (1739-40 was a very severe cold winter). And didn't somebody with initials SF famously say around 2006 that we would never have winter months below 3 C ever again?
Never say never. But one time it could be right. You never know which time though. It's a long wait.
We're obviously not at the level of warming that can prevent a winter similar to 2010 or even colder. It's ludicrous to make statements like 2012 / 2013 may now be regarded as a very cold winter. It was similar drivel spoken about only 15 years ago.
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April 2021 would surely be added to the list for late winter cold. At least in terms of average minimum temperature (much lower than January this year).
May 2021 also felt particularly cold at times.
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1 hour ago, Scuba steve said:
Have a friend in Manitoba he says he’s seen nothing like it ,been advised not to leave your house ,brutal conditions
Lol well it seems like a legit reason this time round!
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After the short sharp freeze potentially near-record breaking warmth to follow for some.
One of the modern intense cold snaps followed by notable warmth. Not like the 70's at all.
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A very cold spell of weather. How the ten day average of -2.1 C compares;
2010 managed a run of 11 consecutive days beneath freezing; averaging -4.2 C
Other than that year, you have to go back to 1981; -1.7 C
1962 9 days; -2.7 C
1890; a whopping 18 days below freezing averaging -2.1 C and a lowest 10 day average of -3.1 C
Clearly 2010 is remarkable for the intensity but 1890 had longevity.
Whilst this year isn't unprecedented, it is historically significant.
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Assuming the CET is 0.7 C by the 17th then the remainder of the month will need to average;
10.2 = 5.0
9.2 = 4.5
5.2 = 2.7 (colder than March 2013 and coldest month since Dec' 2010)
8.1 = 4.0
-0.6 = 0.1 (equalling 1981)
-2.4 = -0.7 (equalling 2010)
-2.6 = -0.8 (equalling 1890)
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Certainly a very cold first half to December based on the current ECM 2m temperatures (in Celsius).
9th 2.8
10th 2.4
11th 2.0
12th 1.7
13th 1.6
14th 1.3
15th 1.0
A selection of other December's with a very cold first half.
2012 2.3
2010 -0.2
2008 2.3
1991 2.1
1987 2.4
1981 0.9
1976 1.9
1950 1.7
1933 1.1
1890 0.1
Perhaps 3rd or 4th coldest since 1890 having done a rough scan over the data. (There might be colder ones in there)
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August 1912: Coldest, Wettest, Dullest
in Historic Weather
Posted
In the CET record August 1912 recorded a mean maxima of 16.1 C.
There are currently four April's with higher mean maxima and seven warmer October's.