Optimus Prime
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Posts posted by Optimus Prime
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From memory, January 2009 felt a lot colder than the one just gone. But the greatest departure from average was measured in the SE where it was >1.5 °C below average and some unusually low overnight temperatures despite the lack of snow cover. This year there were some very mild CET days recorded there.
Will be interesting to see how cold it was for Scotland. Perhaps 2nd coldest since the 90's after 2010.-
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Great looking 2m temp anomaly chart for day 7 (1981-2010 ref period)
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6 hours ago, SLEETY said:
Doesn't sound great for the South, with still talking about bands of rain croosing, and greater chance in the North.
Still these met forecasts should be not taken too seriously, they seem to word it to cover all outcomes,and they have failed plenty of time with these long-range forecasts
Apart that weird high pressure forecast (That WIB also fell for) I think their text forecasts have been accurate. Wintry hazards, ice and short lived mild spells is what we have had.
Yes their wording can seem very amateurish, but it needs to be simplistic to an extent for the general population to understand.
They really ought to have a section directed at people who know a little bit about meteorology who can understand some of the more technical stuff. A bit like their long-range forecasts but in text and with diagrams central to the format. Netweather has a great section for learning a lot of the terminology and I think their forecasts are much more pleasing to read. -
Estimated CET tracker to the 15th
7th 1.3
8th 1.2
9th 1.1
10 1.2
11 1.5
12 1.8
13 1.9
14 2.2
15 2.4
Obviously doesn't compare too well to the top 8 coldest 1st - 15th January months since 1960;
1963 -1.6
2010 -0.9
1979 -0.4
1982 -0.4
1985 -0.3
1987 0.1
1997 1.0
2009 1.4
…2021 2.4 (estimate)
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I think it should be mentioned (as per CET thread namely; Realitivistic that whilst the 14-day period up to the 10th hasn't been particularly news / record worthy it will have almost certainly been the coldest 14 day period since January 2013 (~ 0.8 C vs -0.4 C) and is comparable to the coldest 14 day period in 2018 (Feb/March 2018), 1.2 C
That is worthy of the very least a mention.
Next weeks mild looks to have been watered down to an extent at present.
Would be nice if this recent cold spell is a sort of calibration for what can be compared against for the rest of the winter.
And at least this year there is some brutal (by modern standards) cold covering a large portion of Siberia. Might be worth keeping an eye on its westward progression.
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12 minutes ago, Doctor96 said:
Is the north sea colder than it should be at this time of year .below is the forecast for mid January and it shows the middle of north sea 6 C . I am sure this is 1-2C colder than our normal years and will have an effect on the est coast marginal areas .
Sea surface temperatures are well in to single figures (7 - 9 C) and this equates to 1.5° C - 2.5° C above normal:
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5 minutes ago, phil nw. said:
Yes I am with you on that Nick.
The ideal route for the cold is down through Scandinavia.
Plenty of time for adjustment yet. The overall trend for continuing cold is very solid looking at current ens guidance.
Some outstanding prospects now for a memorable cold spell.
That's definitely the coldest source of continental air available for the UK. But an easterly from Russia would eventually pull in very cold air also;
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9 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:
Cmon Stu mate get real!
You must still be on the mulled wine - we have three days of December left!
December 2010 was the coldest in one hundred years.
Compare the above to December 2020 for the majority of the UK so far...
If he's comparing it by calendar month then the outcome may join December 2010 as being a month to record a negative anomaly since 1986.
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5 minutes ago, kold weather said:
I do agree with you on the cuation side of things, we've been around the block and have seen these both succed and fail before!
With that all being said, I've got to be honest and say I've rarely seen the stratosphere and troposphere both so primed for northern blocking in the 16 years I've been here.
Except this year, much like 2010, we have cross-model agreement. We literally have a full suite of variables that favour a feezing January and promising Feb.
Just been through Birmingham which has been pasted, and the cold hasn't even had a chance to stagnate and accumulate.
Very exciting prospects.
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Current GFS run gives us a cold first week to January;
1 0.7
2 1.0
3 0.9
4 0.9
5 1.1
6 1.1
7 1.0
Over 3.0 C below 1981 - 10 average.
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Good couple of centimetres here in Tewkesbury, Gloucestershire.
Feel a good winter coming on this year.
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2 minutes ago, Snow White said:
I agree it’s not fantastic output at the moment but I think you should see some snow over next few days. In Scotland you have a better chance than most looking at the models.
There does seem to some hefty snow showers moving into the west coast of Scotland.
I am hoping to wake up to a covering from the feature moving south over northern England overnight.
Checked out the metoffice forecast for Burnley, NW England....hovering around freezing midweek onwards and overcast
A tad nippy if you ask me. Think December"s of the 60's and your not far wrong.
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6 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:
Excellent post.
This is what a bigger picture objective post should be.
There will always be ups and downs with the ops but the big picture is one of a huge meridonial jet that can not at all support that GFS run.
Its doing its nornal and sending too much energy over the top.
Its new younger brother the P has greater verticle layers and as such can pick up on them (invisible lines)
This goes on to produce a very cold possibly snowy outlook
Would advise a quick glance over
Crude perhaps but notice the arctic is going from negative to positive. A response to...?
We saw that in 2013. And we have the Siberian cold to go with it.
The science in us certainly makes the brain wonder what is going on with our weather right now.
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5 minutes ago, Snow White said:
Well I for one hope you are right but at the moment I don’t see any evidence for that. Plenty of time for things to change but this week from watching the models were only ever going to be a damp squib IMO.
Remember, these models predict relatively very short ranges. The timing of this cold spell isn't exactly ideal with regards to data re:time of year (+pandemic) +an unusual shift in global weather patterns. The global temp anomaly is dropping, fact. Look at what's going on in Siberia and asia.
Also, check out proper long range forecasting data presented in the ssw thread.
It hasn't been this good since, eh well the last la nina/low sunspot combo. Can't believe that's over 10 years ago already. Time flies.
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2 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:
The weather is only going to get colder.
I didnt base that forecase on this weeks weather.
We have an eamt on the 31st of December which will further amplify the pattern for the latter end of january.
Those colder uppers will come middle to end of january and well stay cold enough until then for snow chances and very cold nights.
If it unravels like that it will be a top 10 winter.
I stand by it ive put my neck on the line ajd if im wrong then i am ill admit it.
But i still stand by this claim and stand by it very strongly
There are plenty of others that share your excitement. You're not alone
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I'm trying to see sense in conspiracies and narratives with regards to the UKMO.
They forecast the weather, they don't control it. How often do we get periods of sustained cold these days? Rare. It's the science of balancing probabilities, and regardless of what happens this winter, normality will resume. 2010, 2012 and 2013 are all examples of comparatively cold / very cold years bundles amongst the usual tide of persistent mildness.
Regardless of all that, their most recent update is very sensible and is clearly indicating some unusually persistant cold for the foreseeable.
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5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:
Its not, its 2m Dew points.
Yep. Looked at a number of the charts and didn't realise I hadn't clicked back to the 2M;
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10 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:
Cold rain for the majority apart from central England it’s not exactly widespread as people are making out
On closer inspection we have this;
That looks very cold to me. Not far off early January 2010.
Looks like some special weather is on the way. Makes a change.
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10 minutes ago, dragan said:
May i be so bold as to ask.....
What is the reason people think the -4ish uppers will actually be colder than that (if these charts verify of course)
Is it past experience? Genuine question
Conjecture.
Sometimes they get upgraded, sometimes they don't. Models do seem to be better these days at predicting upper atmospheric temperatures more than 5 days out, but ultimately the resolution fine tunes incrementally, it doesn't just suddenly get sharper and more accurate at a prescribed benchmark.
Northerlies do require lower temperatures at that height because they are passing over a modifying ocean. Easterlies also get modified by the north sea, but to a much lesser degree and I believe there is more tolerance to producing snowfall at comparatively similar temperatures.
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13 minutes ago, s4lancia said:
Irrespective of Arctic warming, climate change, things were better back in the 1700s blah blah blah, there are very simple synoptic reasons why the uppers are what they are. Nothing weird or sinister or strange or ‘typical’ , the current Northern Hemispheric set up is why.
Except what you've just outlined goes completely against the science. The air in the Arctic is much warmer than it was even 20 years ago. And >40 years ago temperatures would be 1.0 - 2.5° C colder in the arctic regions. It's just a fact and this translates to less cold northerlies when the synoptics grant it.
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20 minutes ago, Downburst said:
This spring was remarkable, records broken for sunshine, drought and warmth for many. Now the models are showing signs of another possible 2010 (subject to actually happening, and who knows how much change is yet to come) with low orbit MJO and nevertheless a crazily massive atlantic block high pressure, one has to wonder what’s going on with the weather
It's like the current global debt crisis evolving. On the other side, expect there to be a considerable debt owed reciprocally as a net result for all of the fun (sarcasm of course)
But that shouldn't detract us from enjoying it whilst it's here. 2050 could be a totally different story.... -
1 hour ago, jules216 said:
Where is that hide the pain Harold expresion
Is Harold someone we're supposed to know? Like, Ronnie Pickering?
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1 hour ago, Froze were the Days said:
Let's not forget this...nearly a decade since we had a sub -1c CET Winter month (1961-90 series)...and that was Dec 2010, since then nada! this fact gets lost by some on this website.
10 years without a sub 0 C month is not abnormal. 1896 - 1939 there wasn't a single month below zero. 44 years and is still a record.
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Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Global 2m temp anomaly interesting at day 7. Serious cold running out of Alaska and Canada and in to North America. North America and Europe trend setting in for thr month ahead.
Finally a proper February for cold for a change.