Optimus Prime
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Posts posted by Optimus Prime
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2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:
ECM mean T240:
Would have liked to see more purples in the vortex on the Siberian side, mind.
But isn't that just a result of the Siberian air mass moving to the European side of the arctic (and then eventually onwards to the British Isles and NW Europe)
Some big positive anomalies due over Siberia next week.
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4 minutes ago, tight isobar said:Kinky isobars...
In a long polar flow...
One of the most conceivible shouts for impactual snow showers!!!
@ecm 12z
To add heat to the fire so to speak long-range forecast from the BBC mentions snow showers and bitter winds next week. Northerly look like a really good bet.
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So judging by the farts Jacob Reese-Mogg was blurting out with regards to Grenfell the other day, should there be a mass evacuation going on there?
Not quite, but it does look pretty awful over Sheffield - 80mm is a hell of lot of rainfall for a city that hasn't managed its land use properly (e.g cutting down of trees, residents paving their front lawns and anomalous rainall patterns overwhelming many of its rivers) it's not really all that surprising
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A steady but steep drop is about to take place. Based on the ICON data:
4 9.4
5 9.2
6 8.7
7 8.4
8 7.9
9 7.4
10 7.2
So certainly below average by the 8th against the 61-90 average. Looking at the recent output I wonder if this month will carry any similarities to March 2013 by months end?
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According to the solar section, someone has mentioned a big drop in the thermosphere temperature. Similar thing occurred during the 2009 solar solar cycle but unsure to what extent. This of course coincided with much colder weather across NW Europe, particularly during the winter months of 2010.
https://www.space.com/7685-earth-upper-atmosphere-cooling-dramatically.html
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35 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:
It looks as though we have finally recorded a below average month for the first time since March 2018. October, unlike most other months, is a strange month in that the 1971-2000 average (10.4) is lower than the 1961-90 average (10.6), although in the 1981-2010 average it rose again to 10.7. At 10.0, October 2019 was below average although not by much, and the coolest since 2012.
May was technically below 61-90 average at 11.1°C (-0.05°C)
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1 hour ago, Relativistic said:
9.95°C (-0.65°C)
Max: 13.3°C (-0.7°C)
Min: 6.6°C (-0.5°C)
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11 hours ago, damianslaw said:
On average I believe the first week of August returns the warmest CET mean of the year. The start of the month has been warm largely due to high minima which is very easy to attain under cloudy skies at this time of year.
Checking the Hadley website. Mean minima is 2.5C above and maxima is 3.0C above.
Doesn't really back up what you have said here at all.
Also minima tends to get corrected downwards more than maxima.
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August has suffered a bit.
It's been 15 years since a warm August (2004: 17.6°C) and 2004 is the only August to be more than 1.0°C above the 1971 - 2000 baseline. 2016 is warmest at 17.0°C.
August 2005 - 2018 averages 16.0°C and is -0.2°C against the 71-000 average. -0.4 against 81-2010.
Comparatively the previous 14 years averaged 16.9°C (1991 - 2004)
August has been a warmer version of what December had been before 2015.
I'll go with 15.8°C
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It's clear the mean minima temperature is not holding up the average mean;
Clearly, the opposite is true.
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17 hours ago, The PIT said:
Eventually the UK will all be concrete sadly the numbers aren't sustainable. At some point the Urban Heat Island effect will be the standard unless the station is on an island in a huge lake.
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Hopefully not an indication of what's to come this month. And quite a contrast compared with the run of warm May's since 2016:
2018;
2017;
2016;
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14 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:
Yet you think a 1c increase in temps over 70 years is a crisis but a 12c increase in the UK over a week isn't, wonder why?
That is utter rubbish on so many levels though.
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1 hour ago, frosty ground said:
you didn’t need all those other charts to prove that because the PPN chart clearly shows that the charts you do show actually back up the PPN chart
That's actually not true at all, and the precip chart doesn't match well with the other charts I posted. There is clearly some indication for wintriness to be had for West Midlands, inland parts of the South West and Southern England. It suggests sleet/snow as the front moves west to east.
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1 hour ago, Purga said:
Mmmm... Posting a thickness, precipitation and notoriously inaccurate snowfall accumulation map, doesn't make a blizzard.
The thickness chart does indicate some strong and gusty winds for Friday;
These are sustained winds at 10m between 30-50mph in the orange-red zones, and perhaps gusting to 60mph in exposed areas. This accompanied with any snowfall would produce whiteout conditions and perhaps blizzard during sustained snowfall across the hills.
The 1500m is cold, down to -7°C in northern parts but generally much less cold elsewhere;
Dew Points unfavourable in most areas.
2m temperature tells a similar story; marginal, without heavy precipitation and evaporative cooling;
^high ground certainly quite favourable.
Precipitation type;
Schnee = snow.
Again, notoriously unreliable, especially at this range. Certainly shows potential, but at this stage all of the other factors for Friday point towards mostly rain/sleet mix and wet snow for a time in northern areas. SE - no chance.
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Climate reanlyser, which uses GFS data, is showing a real cooldown towards our North & NE for the next 10-day period;
Compared to the next 3-day average
Also, the historically cold weather that has been plaguing the US over the last few days (and for much of the last month or so in the Northern/Central US); more especially brutal in the beautiful state of Montana where February was the coldest on record, or second coldest where in some parts the anomaly was 9-13°C below average! is easing.
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Interesting ICON for wintriness as early as Friday.
A strong northerly wind blowing in snow showers for northern and eastern Scotland - Sleet around the coasts. Perhaps wintry showers for eastern England too, but nothing significant and will generally be rain around the coasts.
Dew Points borderline or unfavourable for most, but more favourable in northern areas and areas susceptible to precipitation
Ground temperatures generally quite favourable for some wintriness to fall in the showers.
And then by the weekend the atlantic barrels through and a mild sector crosses
But there is some very cold air coming out from Canada. As long pressure systems, moving towards us from the atlantic mix in with the cold air, there will always be a risk of quite widespread wintriness
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8 hours ago, frosty ground said:
Are you mistaking anomalies with actual temperature? It's still cold up there
Even thou it's still cold up there you can see most of below average temps have been shifted into Mid lat regions.I was pointing out that it's also exceptionally warm there too relative to average.
Just thought it was weird pointing out its cold, relative to pur shores in the arctic, in february.
Dont really understand what might be expected otherwise?
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8 hours ago, SLEETY said:
At least their is plenty of cold air in the Arctic, hopefully some mega cold runs showing soon.
Needs pointing out because, compared to the (warm 81-2010) average I can't see a great deal tbh.
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Bloody hell, has this thread been taken over by a bunch of Daily Mail readers or something?
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1 hour ago, North-Easterly Blast said:
I am meaning to say that if when we are approaching or at a solar minimum, and only a weak El Nino in place, on top of that an SSW in early January, we still end up with a milder than average winter in 2018-19, punctuated by only a couple of weeks of relatively cold weather. If you look at winter 2018-19 like this then it would appear that the winter climate of the UK has become in a worse state for cold prospects in the past six years since 2013, and that since then UK winters have notched up into a super warm era as opposed to the warm era which appeared to begin in 1988. We managed a fairly average winter in 2017-18, with a few cold spells, and then even closer still to a solar minimum and only a weak El Nino we end up with a winter not as cold as last year's close to average winter, so winter 2018-19 clearly shows that something is up and has become worse since 2013. With a much poorer winter than many expected this year to be, and even what the background signals suggested, it is now starting to look as though a winter like 2017-18 may be the post 2013 baseline for winter cold in the UK.
I think what you are saying is claptrap. But that might be valid at some point in the not so distant future.
1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:If you think it's mild this week look at what NEXT weekend could bring!!
Brace thyselves? What the heck does that mean? lol
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3 minutes ago, winterof79 said:
Extend ?
Yeah, that's the one! Was actually the word I was looking for.
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8 minutes ago, winterof79 said:
Which is for Saturday.
You could extrapolate to a few days later
Lol, that's not extrapolating. But there are a lot of correct concerns about the lack of cold pooling to the east. Will really struggle to get much out of this as currently forecast.
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Too early to say for certain? ...more like 'too early to say with any confidence whatsoever'.
December 2019 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests -- start of the 2019-2020 competition year
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted · Edited by Optimus Prime
What would you class as significantly mild? 11 days above 7.0°C min/max avg and some very high temperatures in Scotland.