Optimus Prime
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Posts posted by Optimus Prime
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30 minutes ago, Mixer 85 said:
First off the example I gave is human psychology and not religious. It may be adopted through religious beliefs but one mustn’t confuse one over the other.
Secondly “people like me” is a gross categorisation of someone you don’t know. I am a conservationist at heart. I believe strongly in protecting our planet and it’s environment. I do not believe the poor and vulnerable should suffer. I believe poorer nations should be given access to cheap reliable energy derived from fossil fuels, just as we had. There is an attempt to deny this based on the so called irrefutable science. We are endlessly bombarded with these terrifying ‘predictions’ that are clearly tailored to instill fear into our young.
Regardless of who’s right or wrong in this long running debate what bothers me the most is that science has been politicised. Any scientists who engage in the debate quickly find themselves ‘persona non grata’. Any studies that dispute the narrative are kept out of sight. Lies and false claims are being trumpeted constantly.I believe in the human pursuit of truth and understanding in all fields of study and sadly in the case of climate science this no longer applies. It’s turned into irate school girls berating our leaders in front of the world. Quite sad really.
Well that's cleared up a misconception I had. But can you source just a few articles demonstrating 'terrifying predictions'? Shouldn't be too difficult if we are being bombarded.
I'm talking proper scientific papers with references. Personally I don't see it as alarmist information if it's a fact.
Facts - almost half of all matter on Earth has been turned in to materials for human consumption. 1.5 trillion tons of CO2 has been released since 1850. The world has warmed by 1.2 degrees since the 80's, unprecedented in the Earth's recent history and it will exceed 1.5 very soon, Arctic Sea ice is trending downwards rapidly since the late 90's, tropical forests are retreating. Atmospheric levels of oxygen are in decline. These are indisputable facts. They are all worthy of much concern. Why should they be ignored and why is it alarmist?
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55 minutes ago, Mixer 85 said:
You might want to read up on ‘apocalypticism’. It’s a classic mental condition most humans suffer from. It’s believing that the end is nigh, be it from religious apocalypse to environmental collapse. It quite easily explains the endless and unsupported doomsday prophecies touted by alarmists and many media outlets.
You're making an example of one extreme scenario and using it as prophecy, now who's sounding religious?
Almost all of the predictions, specifically James Hansen led, which predicted temperature rises predicted in the 70's to present day have more or less come to fruition. You can cherry pick data used in that analysis to refute this claim, but then you would be ignoring the ensemble mean which has been remarkably accurate and takes in to account multiple variables.
I don't believe the world will end. That is ridiculous but it's quite obvious we will not be able adapt in time to avert the displacement of billions of the world's most vulnerable.
It's always the vulnerable that suffer, that's why people like you feel they shouldn't need to worry about it. Be it not just climate change but social inequality the racist war on drugs, police brutality etc.
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9 hours ago, Wold Topper said:
By that rational this must be applied to both (all) sides of the debate 'motivated reasoning' can't be used as a counter argument if it is used to support a narrative?
If that narrative is stating facts I.e humans are warming the world up far beyond any natural cycle could cause within the same time period, then no, because that's a fact and is not devised from denial.
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On 01/10/2021 at 12:01, ANYWEATHER said:
Well said and very true. The agenda has been set many many times over ,the goal posts keep getting moved further back, and yet the weak and gullible are taken in. ...........
You might want to read up on 'motivated reasoning'. It's a classic mental condition most humans suffer from. It's believing what you want to be true, rather than what would be considered rational or evidence based.
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Be honest, did anyone ever expect the possibility of a December 2015?
I wouldn't had thought so this side of 2040
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Shall we also question the North American and Canadian records that have recently been obliterated?
One of the reasons behind these temperatures are the insanely high sea surface temperatures present in Western Britain. Currently 4 or 5 degrees above normal.
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14 hours ago, Weather-history said:
Here's a downside of using rainfall
August 1981: 140mm at Manchester Airport
Wow that was a wet month, at first glance
Then you look at the rain days......only 8 days out of 31. 23 days recorded no rainfall at all. The large rainfall total masks that actually for the bulk of the month, it was dry. 2/3rds of that August's total rainfall fell in a few hours.
Another example, Cardiff Airport: 90mm of rainfall recorded during August 1995, 85mm fell in a few hours on the 2nd but they were 26 days where no rain was recorded.
That's why I prefer rain days over rainfall
Better to look at data at a more granular level but then where do you stop? By hour, by minute (if available) but it's a really good point. Thanks for raising that one.
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1 hour ago, damianslaw said:
Backs up my comment. 1985 coldest, also wettest, oddly though the sunniest.
1987 dullest.
1986 best of the four, warmest, driest and nearly sunniest, but overall poor.
Do you have stats for other summers. I suspect 1989 warmest, sunniest and driest, though 84 might give it a run for its money. I think it was better in the west than the south and east, whereas 1989 brought widespread good conditions.
1989 was a great summer.
Also included 1963 (reference period 1931 - 1960) certainly a poor summer overall with August being particularly cool (18.1 °C, equal with 1985 but nowhere near as bad as 1986's 17.4 °C). Interestingly, the warm June's of the 60's were just 0.1 °C cooler than August's of the same period in terms of mean maximum.. June 1960 maximum was outstandingly warm, last time we had one warmer was 1976.
Interestingly, the period 1931 - 1960 was warmer (by day), drier and sunnier than the period 1951 - 1980 in terms of the summer.
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Table showing average maximum, rainfall and sunshine for June, July and August against the 1951-80 avg
Clearly 1985 is the worst.
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With a CET minimum of 10.9 °C for June, the first half of the year averages 3.9 °C. Coldest first half since 2013 (3.3 °C)
There have been only 8 years since 1980 that were colder;
1986 3.0 °C
1985 3.0 °C
2013 3.3 °C
2010 3.5 °C
1987 3.5 °C
1984 3.6 °C
1996 3.7 °C
1991 3.7 °C
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1 hour ago, damianslaw said:
A very warm first half to June on the cards, despite nothing exceptional temperature wise, a few spots might hit 30 degrees. Lack of cool minima I suspect a key factor for the high values, though maxima in some places has consistently been in the low 20s, more akin to a warm spell in July and August.
Could be on course for one of the warmest Junes on record, had a number of these recently, 2017 and 2018. Turning into a rollercoaster year CET wise, major flip from the cold April-May combo... reminding me a lot of 2013.. the June to July changeover..
Mean minima is currently running at 11.6 °C (+2.4 °C)
Maxima - 21.3 °C (+2.9 °C)
The Highest maximum - 1976 (22.6 °C)
Highest minimum - 2017 (11.6 °C)
Certainly a chance of both those being broken this year.
June 2013 recorded 13.6 °C so was a pretty cool month overall.
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Up until the 1990's, the 1730's was the warmest decade in the Central England Temperature series. It measures 9.85 °C compared to 9.25 °C for the 1701 - 1730 reference period. The sharpest increase in warming was measured in January (4.5 °C vs 3.1 °C , +1.4 °C rise against 1701 - 1730). November showed the lowest level of warming at +0.1 °C (6.5 °c vs 6.4 °C). The warmest month relative to average is January 1733 at 6.9 °C (+3.8 °C). The warmest month registers 18.3 °C in July, also in 1733; 1733 is the warmest year of that decade at 10.5 °C. Looking at the temperature series, 1733 was to be the warmest year until 1834 when 10.51 °C would be recorded (and subsequently equaled in 1922). It would then take until 1959 to finally exceed this (10.52 °C)
That period compares quite well to the 1990's where the decadal average comes in at 10.1 °C. The decade of the 1730's is 0.6 °C above its 30 year average reference period. Comparatively, the current warmest decade (2000 - 2009) is 0.61 °C warmer than it's reference period (1971-2000).
The preceding decade was exceptionally cold; the 1740's averaged 8.86 °C or broadly equivalent to 2010.
The warming spike of that decade can be clearly seen on the Met Office annual anomaly chart;
The rolling 10-year average for the 1730's is actually a little higher than the next warmest decade, the 1940's (prior to the 1990's)
Some interesting information can be found here;
Britain's Little Ice Age: When Was It And What Happened?
WWW.HISTORYEXTRA.COMThe Thames turned to ice, gales flattened communities, and famine killed peasants in their thousands. Brian Fagan describes the climatic calamities that beset Britain from the 14th to 19th centuries as it shivered...-
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Is the final figure not 10.2? (10.16)
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Major heat setting in once again over the crucial region of siberia.
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41 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:
SSTs local to UK just above average actually, some slightly cooler than average to our SW:
Neither very marked. If we get the high pressure and heat from the sun, these would not in my opinion put any damper on temperatures for long at all and would quickly trend above average.
The sea track distance between the continent and the UK land mass isn't anywhere near wide enough for it to be modified very much anyway. It really is a non issue if winds are directly from the south as that will eliminate clouds forming as a result of convection.
Also, sea temperatures respond reasonably quickly to reduced turbulence and heating.-
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1 hour ago, Weather-history said:
Given that April CET minimum was a record low, the CET minimum for April and May period could be heading for a notably low value.
A selection of chilly spring mean minimum temperatures;
(2021 - Assuming May has a theoretical average of 5.4 °C); thus the anomaly for 2021 (minimum) -1.7 °C below the most recent rolling 30 year average.
Decadal averages since the 1880's
Pronounced warming trend since the late 1800's.
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28 minutes ago, SLEETY said:
Anything to make it higher then,why are they not using the last 30 years instead
WMO advises this as a baseline
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1 hour ago, damianslaw said:
Yes quite an exception of a month, not in the same league as Dec 2010 or March 2013, but notable all the same, depth of cold at night I would say more akin to the anomalies of those two very exceptional months. In an age when it is usually warm records we talk about, it makes a refreshing change.
May looks like starting on a notably cold note as well.
Technically, with the mean minimum being by a decent stretch, the coldest on record, it's comparable to all of the other years that hold the top spot (1963, 1895, 1986, 2010 etc...)
Should be mentioned that the mean maxima is bang on the average for the 61-90 ref period, but considerably below the most recent 30 year comparison.
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Quite possible this April will have the lowest average mean minima on record (since 1878). It's 1.4 °C up to the 23rd (2.7 °C below 81-2010 avg)
top 5 lowest mean minima for April (°C)
1.4 (1917)
1.5 (1922)
1.6 (1887)
1.7 (1892)
2.1 (1879)
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For lowland North Manchester
Snow - 2/10
Extremely dissapointing. Just a few days of isolated light snow showers which dissapeared due to sublimation.
Cold - 5/10
It has felt bitter in the wind but there has been no ice days and nights were not especially cold. No visible frosts.
When i saw that cold sitting over Siberia in Feb / Jan i was anticipating a proper spell of wintry weather when the easterly did arrive. The outcome was extremely dissaponting.
Not a beast from the east here. 2018 was actually very good, even here in thr NW.
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8 hours ago, Frigid said:
Seems like a cold February throughout is becoming harder to get with every promising attempt being dashed away. Even Feb 1991 cold spell didn't last all that long. We have to go back to 1986 for a proper cold Feb, 35 yrs ago!
At -1.3 °C, the first half of February 1991 was the coldest since 1917, with 1917 being the coldest of the 20th century (-1.9 °C). Just slightly colder than 1947 (-1.2 °C).
But it isn't true that the cold didn't last long in 1991. The last week of January averaged just 0.9 °C. from the 22nd January - 20th February all of the daily means were well below average and it wasn't until the 21st the milder air really made an impact.
The remaining 8 days of February that year averaged 6.4 °C.
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Yeah, and it doesn't need to be overly cold to give us a notably chilly winter
Feb CET Winter CET
3.0 3.7
2.0 3.4
1.0 3.0
0.0 2.7
-1.0 2.4
Compared to recent cold winters
2012/2013 3.8
2009/2010 2.4
2010/2011 3.1
2008/2009 3.6
1990/1991 3.1
1986/1987 3.5
1985/1986 2.8
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CET looking to track comfortably below average by the 9th (ICON data)
6 5.2
7 4.9
8 4.4
9 3.8
10 3.2
11 2.7
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Arctic Sea Ice Melt Season 2021
in Climate Change
Posted
Well the argument that I think is so crazy and out of touch is the one where we shouldn't be instilling fear in to the young.
Naive and implausible deniability. jaffa cakes on the future of younger generations because we were fortunate to have been born early enough to not have to deal with the sum total of it all.
The selfishness is incredible. Not wanting to give up all the crap we take for granted because we are noy willing to sacrifice it all for future generations.
Imagine if that attitude were to be applied to a disaster such as Chernobyl.