edinburgh_1992

I was mainly referring to gfs outputs that have consistently been showing very mild temperatures in the long term. I bet ecmwf swings round too this evening

Seriously doubt it. Especially with the high pressure annoyingly sitting over spain and pushing north. Wet, windy and very mild looking increasingly likely as we head into the second half of december

With temperatures of 4-5C all day tomorrow I doubt we will be seeing any snow in Edinburgh or elsewhere on lower ground. Snow much more likely from around 200m above sea level

Reasonable chances of seeing snow over the coming weeks for some parts of scotland, as long as the jet stream stays low. Even in Edinburgh we got lots of snow during january 2018 from westerlies. My main concern is that the HP over spain will push north and keep us on the wet and mild side of things, even up in Scotland :(

Loving the seasonal weather. Even in Edinburgh city centre frost has resisted the whole day both yesterday and today. Now a milder blip before colder conditions return (hopefully)

Can't complain about the long-term outlook. There is a general tendency pointing towards cold zonality after the high pressure collapses next week. Ideal conditions for scottish ski resorts in the run up to christmas and will definitely feel seasonal on lower ground. I'm just happy to not see endless raging south-westerlies on the model outputs, which is always a risk in December.

Looking at models, in particular the gfs ensembles, I'm seeing plenty of opportunities for cold weather through the first half of December, even with a zonal setup. The models could genuinely be a lot worse with raging southwesterlies for the next two weeks

Thanks for the link, never knew about that table with all the GEFS members. Strange how low the ground temperatures are compared to the 850 temps that would suggest pretty average conditions for November.

Gfs 06 ensembles for Edinburgh, roughly from the 19th temperatures should rise back up to seasonal averages or even slightly above (red line=seasonal average and white line=average of the ensembles).

The outlook from Monday onwards suggests milder and wetter weather which could help compensate for the lower than average temperatures up to date.

Yep, we have definitely had more eastern winds than usual for this time of the year and as a result the rainfall in eastern scotland has been relentless at times (especially today). Still better than the usual south-westerlies. If the weather pattern holds on, we should gradually tap into much colder air to the east as winter approaches and then things could get more interesting

It will feel more like December than November over the next 10 days. Ensembles for Edinburgh. And yes, a chance of snow if the easterly winds manage to pull in some even colder air from Scandinavia. Unfortunately, Metoffice and bbc are predicting a return to south-westerlies by the end of november and above average temperatures

Low pressures seem to be travelling further south than usual, heading into south-western Europe. Hence the eastern winds over Scotland that remains to the north of the depressions. Unfortunately not pulling in much cold air, just lashing rain for eastern areas. Still seeing many sub zero 850 temps in the runs which isn't too bad for November.

Nice ground temperatures too for September. I wouldn't mind seeing this even in January

Snow showers tonight over the Scottish mountains, from about 900m. above sea level, possibly even lower. The cold wind has put me in the mood for winter, I wonder what it'll be like this year.

Some very windy and wet periods could be expected next week. Next weekend should give us a temporary relief from the wind if model outputs are confirmed. For now, wet and breezy Monday-Wednesday, drier but still windy Thursday-Friday (at least for eastern Scotland)

Thanks. Still very confusing, GFS V3 has now postponed the front moving in from the west until Saturday, leaving Friday completely dry. Standard GFS still showing rain for most of the day. ICON completely dry even into the next weekend. Ukmo looks reasonably dry too with high pressure pressing down from the north... ecmwf 12 looking wet still...Who's going to win? And it's only 100h away too.

Is it too early to cancel outdoor activities I had planned for Friday in Edinburgh? Most model outputs look really wet and have been all day. Just until yesterday it was supposed to stay dry

A lot of rain fell last night, I don't have a rain gauge but I'd say at least 20mm. Hail at times too. The ground was very muddy today. Lovely Saturday in the capital, got up to around 13 but felt very warm in the sunshine. Light winds and vibrant skies. More great weather from tomorrow, then Monday-Wednesday highs could reach 20C even in Edinburgh and definitely further inland. Staying dry for the whole week, but cooler from Thursday as high pressure moves to the north

What a classic Scottish day in Edinburgh today. Blue sky on one side and dark menacing clouds on the other. Strong sun and cold winds. The cold weather is almost over, feeling milder tomorrow and then especially on Monday-Wednesday. Temperatures are likely to take another dip towards the end of next week, but at the moment it looks like it could stay dry as high pressure moves to the north of us. Very wet down in southern England as a low slides into France from the west. Hopefully the low stays "low" and misses us (most likely scenario at the moment). Too early for details at the moment, but eastern currents could pick up next weekend as the low pressure pulls in cooler air from the east, with mist and low clouds likely.

Another downgrade, some coastal areas getting highs of just 7C. Edinburgh maximum is about 13 on Monday, dropping to around 10 tops in the next days. Cold eastern winds with low clouds at times too

GFS18 is seriously downgrading the airmass temperatures for the beginning of next week. I mentioned this could happen a few days ago. It will feel warm after this week's weather, but I wouldn't expect high temperatures to be reached like in April. Around 16/17C highs near the east coast, warmer to the west with 18-20C. South-eastern winds are likely to develop within the area of high pressure, making it feel cooler in the east as a consequence

There is the potential for some very warm weather next week. We could go from snow this week to 25 next week in some places. Before we get too excited, it is still in the mid-long range, so there will be changes. High pressure is likely though and there have been clear indications of this in the past few model runs.

Heavy rain in Edinburgh, was supposed to be bright and sunny! And the rain just keeps coming on the radar... So rain from tomorrow to Friday, winds become very gusty at times from the north-east. Next weekend should be brighter and turning mild.

I was out during that shower. Felt like it was turning to proper snow as it went on.