edinburgh_1992

An interesting new evolution has appeared on some of the models this morning (UKMO and GFS para still going with massive low over our head for days). The low pressure could indeed sink towards spain and Portugal, gradually sizzling out whilst Scotland remains protected by high pressure over Scandinavia. This would prolong the warm spell, since the low pressure would help pump warm air up from southern latitudes.

I'm expecting nature to explode into life over the next week, first the warmth and then plenty of rain.

The last week of April 20-27th does indeed look increasingly wet on the models today, although the high pressure is constantly trying to find a way up north, so as mentioned yesterday I don't think the wet weather will be long-lasting. As long as things don't become flat, we should be ok.

High pressure staying near us for a long time. After strengthening winds tomorrow and generally more cloud cover during the first half of the week, next weekend looks to be glorious. We could easily be seeing 20C in many areas if models keep on track. A bit grey today in Edinburgh, but still dry. The past few days have been glorious, despite the fresh easterly winds. No rain in sight, although the end of April could bring some change. I can't see it staying wet for long though, as high pressure is always ready to push back in. I hope this lasts all summer too!

I thought it would change, but since I posted the screenshot of the Italian forecast based on ecmwf, the other models have also aligned themselves with the European model. If we can keep the -6 over Edinburgh, we might see something. If it's -4 like last Sunday, then it'll just be rain

ECMWF going for a serious snow event in Edinburgh on Saturday. Chances of that actually happening are very low, as other models aren't seeing it

Not even a hint of sleet or snow in central Edinburgh today. Just horizontal rain and gusty winds. Will the winds ever stop? They have been relentless since the beginning of February

Nothing in Edinburgh yet. Something icy did fall around midday, although I'm not sure if it was hail or snow. +3C currently, another rain shower passed by this evening too.

Unfortunately the latest updates are showing slightly warmer uppers tonight and tomorrow, therefore I think it's safe to say that it's unlikely that Edinburgh will be seeing any snow, not dry at least. Maybe some sleet mixed in with the heaviest showers.

Increasing risk of snow and hail this weekend, even near the coast with -8 uppers moving in.

This weekend could get quite cold too, with widespread sleet and hail showers coupled with blustery winds. Wednesday will feel very cold in the north-easterly winds with lashing rain. On Thursday we could see the rain turning to snow at low levels as the low pressure moves east and pulls in colder air behind it.

As expected snow is currently falling at low levels, sleet even in central Edinburgh at times. Temperature is around +3C here. The pentlands will be very snowy tomorrow. @101_North any snow falling up in Currie?

Snow dropping to 150-200m above sea level tomorrow night around Edinburgh as colder air gets pulled in, coupled with heavy precipitation moving in at the same time. So @101_North and @Penicuikblizzard keep an eye on the lamp posts tomorrow evening (from about 10-11 onwards I'd say).

Interesting... Not massively low isotherms, but coupled with possibly heavy precipitation it could get snowy at low levels, about 100-150m> on sunday night into the first hours of Monday morning

Let's stop remembering what happened a year ago, it's too painful. Seems like such a distant memory now. The outlook is quite dry for the Lothians after some rain on Saturday, but the cooler winds should help clear away the pollution. The air quality has been bad over the past few days in Edinburgh. No snow on the horizon at low levels, until yesterday it seemed possible at times. Now the winds look predominantly western.

Yes, I can see numerous occasions for NW winds. We really need them to bring some snow back to the hills and mountains. Drier and sunnier in the east during these periods, so should feel quite pleasant in the March sunshine South-westerlies are also likely at times, bringing gales and rain (as in the charts you posted)

Starting next weekend, I can see many occasions for snow on our hills and mountains, down to low levels at times. Of course we need the jet stream to stay low, if the HP pushes too far north then our chances of seeing snow become 0.

Started off mild in Edinburgh and got to around 11C before midday. Then a colder wind moved in from the east and brought temperatures down to 7C. Bright sunshine this morning, but turned overcast in the afternoon with occasional sunny spells. AO+ and NAO+ looking increasingly likely with some very nasty weather on the horizon (next Friday onwards).

Some very November-like weather on the way, starting Friday. Our only hope is for the jet stream to stay low, keeping us on the colder side of things with less wind. I'm not enjoying ecmwf and standard GFS with tight isobars over Scotland = very windy, persistent rain and mild :(

Some snow was seen in Naples too the Balkans look pretty cold at the moment, I took a look at some weather stations along the black sea coast in Bulgaria and winds of up to 70kmh were recorded. Temps have been stuck at around -4C there all day today. Was looking at the graphs and temperatures plummeted from +13 to -4 in about 6 hours yesterday. It's 13C in Edinburgh too, but unfortunately no sudden drops to -4. Weather has been horrible today, the howling winds continue and almost no sun. Horizontal rain around 4pm too

I lived in north-western Italy some time ago (Varese) and high temperatures in winter can happen. Usually when high pressure moves north, winds heat up as they come down from the Alps (Foehn) and can bring some very high temperatures. Humidity on the other hand plummets, sometimes even below 10%. This winter has been very dry, but they did get a very good snowfall at the beginning on February. 20cm fell in Varese from a cold-cushion effect as they call it in Italy. Cold air accumulates in the plains of the north and gets trapped in by the mountains. Then as a warm front moves up from the Mediterranean, it passes over the colder air and can generate very widespread and heavy snowfalls. With all the Atlantic fronts we see in the UK, it's a shame we don't have any valleys where such cold-cushions can develop.

Models have been consistently showing a low jet stream in the long term. If that does indeed develop, then we could see a return to more wintry conditions with snow and sleet down to low levels at times, but mainly in western areas. Should the jet stream stay high, then no snow and lots of rain for the whole of Scotland. An initial south-westerly mild and wet spell as the HP collapses, followed by cooler W-NW currents (with chances for snow) seems to be the most likely scenario at the moment. Personally I can't see any beasts from the east this year, but winter may not be over

Yesterday was an amazing day in Edinburgh, felt like late spring. Today seems very different, the sky is completely grey and the wind is howling :(

Models are showing significant cloud cover for both Saturday and Sunday, with some drizzle moving in Saturday night. What a shame, was looking like an amazing weekend until a couple of days ago

The howling outside seems to be easing off a little. Clear skies and it has been a mostly sunny afternoon too. Not bad considering what the forecasts were expecting. More wind tomorrow, more wind Friday and more wind Saturday. GFS P showing gusts up to 60km/h. Maybe Sunday-Wednesday the wind will calm down? By the end of next week a return to atlantic westerlies looks likely, so instead of being blown off our feet from the south we'll get blown off our feet from the west. If only we could get blown off our feet from the east...