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Premiere Neige

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Everything posted by Premiere Neige

  1. Premiere Neige
    To be fair, given the LRF's through the late summer and autumn, January onwards was always going to be the main opportunity for cold. Anything before that is/was a bonus I feel...
  2. Premiere Neige
    If it is it should be temporary, courtesy of the Canadian warming...
  3. Premiere Neige
    Isn't that what the GFS specialises in? (Blowing up lows out of all proportion)
  4. Premiere Neige
    Not sure about the uppers...
  5. Premiere Neige
    I make that 10 members going for a reversal at the end of the run. A few days ago it was 4 (I think)... Edit: might be 11 actually
  6. Premiere Neige
    Time will tell I suppose And of course there were plenty of other LRF's that looked very promising for this winter.....with the obvious caveat that LRF"s are to be taken with a healthy pinch of salt.
  7. Premiere Neige
    Not necessarily. It's an average over 3 months. Doesn't mean the high will be sat exactly as seen on the chart for 3 months.
  8. Premiere Neige
    This being the first bite of the cherry I don't think we should expect Narnia but it will help to cool SST's down around the UK which will help with further opportunities down the line which, given the background signals, look a better possibility than they have done for the last couple of years.
  9. Premiere Neige
    The thinking is it won't be an SSW (which requires a warming of 50° or more). However, a warming can displace the PV to a position that is favourable to us.....assuming you like cold.
  10. Premiere Neige
    1, 2, 5 and 6 have already been mentioned today!
  11. Premiere Neige
    I shouldn't laugh but...
  12. Premiere Neige
    The met office are non-committal about anything past day 5 if you look at any of their forecasts. Hopefully that clears that up!
  13. Premiere Neige
    Just read an interesting article from the BBC about how the Canadian wildfires have warmed the stratosphere, something I hadn't even considered and may explain why the models are sniffing around a Canadian warming. Posted the article in the Strat forum if anyone is interested...
  14. Premiere Neige
    An interesting read and something I hadn't even considered: How Canada's wildfires are warming the stratosphere WWW.BBC.COM Extreme wildfires are increasing due to rising emissions, but they also disrupt the climate in return. Weighing up the overall impact, however, is tricker than it seems.
  15. Premiere Neige
    If this Canadian warming that is being touted comes to fruition, it won't be anchored anywhere near it's usual home...
  16. Premiere Neige
    As you were sir! I always enjoy your posts...
  17. Premiere Neige
    No worries mate. I thought it had disappeared myself. Had to go to the 2nd page to find it...
  18. Premiere Neige
  19. Premiere Neige
    I believe there was a Canadian warming 1962 in November or December. We all know what followed that....
  20. Premiere Neige
    Thanks for this!
  21. Premiere Neige
    Am I correct in thinking that a tripole signature equates to -NAO (broadly speaking)?
  22. Premiere Neige
    Sorry but this is nonsense. The GFS was the first to pick up the pattern change as I recall, when the others weren't interested. OK, the position of the low to the east has changed a touch. It's hardly got things catastrophically wrong given that it's modelling the whole hemisphere. Also, what are the odds that that particular chart will verify exactly as shown? Hold your horses.....nothing has verified yet. Let's wait and see how things play out before declaring a "winner".
  23. Premiere Neige
    November to December. Autumn to Winter. Meteorological speaking anyway...
  24. Premiere Neige
    Slightly later. Was early December....if I remember.
  25. Premiere Neige
    I would take frost and freezing fog to kick off this winter.
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