mushymanrob

checking my work diary from aug 85 ..... actually it was quite dry. that was the august i spread sand on new football pitches and the sun dried it so it ran into the cracked ground.... it worked well (drainage) . thought that was aug 86, but no, twas 85. whilst 85 wasnt good, by a long way, there was a drier period (if not warm) because the ground needed to dry out to crack, and i needed several dry sunny days to drag the sand around 9 football pitches. the warmest day here was october 1st ! when we got 25c, and very high humidity.

85 easily... 80 wasnt good either. 86 87 wasnt good but imho wasnt as bad as 85, maybe because 85 was cool and wet?... i remember farmers not being able to harvest crops and having them rot in the fields. id rate 83 as the best, 89, 84, next. 82,86, 87, 88, uninspiring 85, 80, 81 worst.

as i see them, they are pretty consistent with showing a pretty strong westerly upper flow , perhaps backing a little south of west. but the pressure appears to be on the +ive side of neutral . so whilst its set to remain unsettled and mobile with no dominant trough nor ridge (lasting long) , it shouldnt be too bad for the south with as ever the north getting the coolest/windiest/wettest conditions . pretty much normal, average, conditions then, sunnier warmer spells mixed with cloudier/cooler/wetter ones, but with the better conditions becoming more widespread then the poorer ones. as they are pretty consistent, i do trust them... however, history shows the these expected lengthy spells of a flat jet/upper flow usually dont last long. so it wouldnt surprise me if these charts re-aligned themselves and a more pronounced ridge/trough pattern emerges...

you can get blackberries right into october. the question is 'when do they first ripen'? ... like everything theres no one set date . if its a cold may/june then flowering will be delayed so mature berries will be too, on the other hand of course warm conditions in spring bring on flowers so berries could be ready earlier even in normal conditions.. its normal for trees to shed older leaves in times of drought. especially shallow rooted trees like birch. sometimes they grow more leaves later in the season if it turns wet. dont forget some years there are 2 tree rings produced. horse chestnut in particular turn early, but theres that leaf mining beetle thats killing the trees atm, they are harming the leaves and making then have a dead/brown appearance. i know of some young lime trees that will have shed all their leaves by mid september, regardless of summer heat/drought/monsoon.

Wet early spring, lots of dry sunny weather in summer.. perfect if have thought. But they arent early. My first crop was usually picked before the family holidayin the first week of august.

I havnt noticed berries ripening early... maybe a week but nothing too advanced.

I dont. Spring most years clearly starts before march 21st. I agree with weather historys post. In fact the anglo saxons whos terms we still use for the seasons ran summer ftom around may 7th until about now in august. That explains why midsummers day is june 24th. Thats clearly at odds with the later quarter days being employed. You cant have summer starting on june 21st, midsummers day june 24th... Despite the warmth mid aug to late sept, its very much like autumn in nature. Plenty of berries ripe nnow, harvest is nearly all in, etc.

i think thats pretty likely tbh. if the heat was going to return it would be more likely to come back after a brief break. currently theres no real sign of a lengthy settled/hot spell returning in the next 2 weeks . ok, the far south wont be too bad and we are likely to get short lived hot days.. so with all due respect to those who try to interpret the ever more complex teleconnections, i just cannot see the atlantic trough/downstream ridging becoming reality, much though id like to see it. we have enjoyed a great summer, one to rival and join many from the past. but i just cant see any lengthy settled heat (over 25c) away from the favoured southeast.

the cet though is flawed.... as cool overnight temps can bring it down despite warm daytime temps, or make miserable months seem better with higher overnight minima. 83 was dire through spring, the heat came when i got married in late june. 75 started cold with the famous snow in june on the 2nd. but the rest of the month was hot as the high to our west transfered to our east. june 75 is the hottest june i can remember, spring was the coldest after a wet week in early march gave way to a bitter northerly until early june. spring 95 wasnt bad, we had 1 hot spell at least..

no change.... the 6-10 dayer supports the north atlantic trough more for that time period but the 8 - 14 dayer is unchanged. no significant troughing, no significant ridging, just bog standard westerly conditions which for mid august arent too bad. but no return to heat on these charts. (other then transitory blasts if that)

i think 91 was regional ... i was going through some upheaval at the time, divorce and starting self employment. i remember it as dry and rather cloudy. others though have argued it was sunny and hot..

yeah i didnt do the count actually, but had promising numbers earlier in july. peacocks were out early, i had upto about ten. (long garden, lots of buddlias). been good for holly blues, speckled wood, gatekeeper, commas , but the vanesids were poor apart from peacock earlier. on my facebook today i actually had a 'memory' from 2013 which had a pic of loads of peacocks on by buddlia. only 1 small tortoishell... shocking... hummingbird hawk moth, 4 painted lady sightings (could be the same one on different days) , only 1 red admiral too.. thats low. decent numbers of ringlet earlier, several seen every day for about 3 weeks. 30 years ago, holly blue, comma, speckled wood, were scarce visitors to the garden. small tortoishells and peacock were abundant with upto 60 sighted daily. now holly blue, comma, speckled wood are more common then tortoishells and peacocks...

i can only comment on the summers i lived through, but id put 75 easily ahead of 84. 76 on top, followed by 75, 83, 95, but im not sure in what order! its not looking like this year will match the longevity of those summers. in essence its only been 'hot' for 7 weeks , here anyway as we missed out on a lot of earlier heat/warmth due to stratus off the north sea. i think manchester might have fared better over on the west. so in the absence of any more heat this summer (before sept 1) , id rate this summer just behind those, but ahead of 03, 06, 13, 84, 96, 90, 89, . that though is going on memory and not sunshine levels/days over 25c, max temps, rain days, or however a 'summer index' is comprised. i would accept the findings of local stats.

yes there was a hint... its still there today (or last night). i was hoping subsequent runs would develop the evolution of it, but so far theres nothing. i wouldnt agree they have been 'flipping about'.. they predicted the troughing, then took it away northeastwards which is what the ops are now agreeing on. unlike some of the recent ops which were quick to bring back building pressure off the azores, the anomaly charts didnt support such a large rise in pressure. the ops are now agreeing with the generally flat westerly upper flow.

im not sure how it works either, in fact i have not got a clue! lol.. but im surprised 1975 is so low.. id be fascinated to do this for derby, but i dont suppose the data exists?..

noaa's backing up the flat ops solution... its all looking pretty average with no major troughing nor ridging. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

hmm.... begining to move in the right direction, the gradual evolution this far suggests pressure ridging to our east, troughing to our west?... we arent there yet but IF the current evolution progresses there could be tangible signs of more heat

im in two minds tbh, we have been here before especially in 06 and 13 on here very few thought it was over come august - plenty of the usual 'too early to write it off' ..... but it sadly wasnt. on the other hand im not getting the feel that its over, and am mindful of what the likes of tamara has been saying. my only concern is that atm theres no real sign in the anomalies that support the more progressive operational runs. but at worst its looking 'normal' , which for august isnt actually bad! (ignoring many recent augusts).

my buddlias are empty.... in full flower but very few butterflies on them had a painted lady, but the peacocks have gone, and only had 1 red admiral and 1 small tortoishell. swifts are gone now too... skies empty even in places where there are colonies. a lot of people deny they are gone, citing sightings... but unless these are stragglers they are usually house martins.

what a vile creature.... that woman in the article, that is, not the splendid catterpillar.

no comments on the gfs 06z?.. its a corker for heat... with high pressure in control for days. pity it has precious little support, heres hoping the anomaly charts switch to something more anticyclonic later today.

i agree. the noaa's 500mb charts do not suggest any significant ridging or troughing ( 8-14 dayer) but a moderate westerly upper flow. a pretty bog standard normal august outlook then which is still better then most recent augusts.

Get a fan... sleep no prob..

pool?... see, youve discovered how to enjoy the heat! im in and out of mine all afternoon, and even in the evening. it cools you right down before sleep..

you mean YOU dont want it to be right! lol. theres nothing we can do about it, whether thats right or wrong. so IF it happens and we get more heat, ill enjoy it. may as well, cant change it.